Market News

• German producer prices -0.5% vs +0.3% m/m expected
• Prior -0.6%; revised to -0.1%

This will arguably be the last report before it all changes up due to the Middle East conflict. As such, I wouldn't look much into this as the data is rather dated at this point in time. The main drag for the lower producer prices in February was due to energy prices. That is seen down 1.8% on the month and down 12.5% compared to February 2025.

Yes, the script will flip when we get to March due to a surge in European gas prices surely. So, this latest report here can be discarded as a thing of the past.

Besides the point on energy prices though, German producer prices actually held up more strongly in February. If excluding energy, producer prices were seen up…

• Goldman Sachs expect Bank of England on hold for the rest of 2026
• Powell to speak Saturday after Fed held rates. This is not a policy related speech.
• Tesla plans major solar expansion with Chinese equipment suppliers, eyes $2.9B deal
• Morgan Stanley delays Fed rate cut outlook to September, December (from June, September)
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.8898 (vs. estimate at 6.8773)
• Saudi see oil hitting $180 if Iran conflict keep supply disrupted, risk demand destruction
• HSBC favours U.S. and Asia equities despite Middle East risks
• Goldman Sachs warns oil could exceed 2008 all time high peak on supply disruptions
• Reports that the U.S. deploys more Marines and ships to Middle East due to Iran tensions
• WTO cuts global trade outlook, says…

WTO cuts trade and growth outlook as Middle East conflict lifts energy risks.

Summary:

• WTO cuts global trade and growth forecasts due to Middle East conflict

• Goods trade growth seen at 1.4% vs 1.9% previously

• Global GDP forecast lowered to 2.5% from 2.8%

• Energy disruptions via Strait of Hormuz driving outlook downgrade

• Higher oil and LNG prices weighing on demand and trade flows

• Energy-importing regions face greater downside risks

• AI-related goods accounted for 42% of trade growth in 2025

• AI investment could partially offset downside risks in 2026

• Services trade, including tourism, also expected to slow

• Geopolitical uncertainty reshaping global trade patterns

The World Trade Organization has downgraded its outlook for global trade and economic…

New Zealand February trade data:

• balance -NZ$257M vs -NZ$740M expected (prev. -NZ$519M)
• imports NZ$6.89B vs NZ$6.20B expected (prev. NZ$6.73B)
• exports NZ$6.63B vs NZ$6.60B expected (prev. NZ$6.21B)

Statistics New Zealand reported the annual trade deficit stood at NZ$3B.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

• Trump: He thought impact of Iran would be worse, will be over with soon
• Netanyahu: Won't put a stopwatch, but it will end much sooner than people think
• BOE leaves bank rate unchanged at 3.75% in March meeting decision
• ECB leaves rates unchanged as expected
• US initial jobless claims 205K versus 215K estimate
• US new-home sales for January 0.587 million versus 0.720 million estimate
• ECB officials see the possibility of rate hikes at the April meeting, June more likely
• US won't implement a crude export ban - report
• ECB scenarios highlight a disasterous inflation scenario if 60% of Hormuz flows blocked
• ECB's Lagarde: Risks to the growth outlook are tilted to the downside
• US wholesale inventories for January -0.5% versus 0.2% estimate.
• QatarEnergy…

Comments from Netanyahu:

• Iran has no capacity to enrich uranium or make ballistic missiles following 20 days of war
• Iran has few ballistic missiles left
• It's too soon to tell if Iranians will take to the streets
• Will attack Iran's leaders
• I pledged to change the Middle East, and we have done so, and Israel has become a regional superpower
• Iran had thousands of ballistic missiles and was threatening to topple our towers, but what falls are the towers of Tehran and Beirut
• Campaign will take as long as necessary

Shortly before this report an Israeli TV report said the mission was not yet halfway complete and the were would last weeks.

This is starting out well but as the press conference was ongoing, there was a report saying Iran had sent missiles…

Comments from Netanyahu:

• Iran has no capacity to enrich uranium or make ballistic missiles following 20 days of war
• Iran has few ballistic missiles left
• It's too soon to tell if Iranians will take to the streets
• Will attack Iran's leaders
• I pledged to change the Middle East, and we have done so, and Israel has become a regional superpower
• Iran had thousands of ballistic missiles and was threatening to topple our towers, but what falls are the towers of Tehran and Beirut
• Campaign will take as long as necessary

Shortly before this report an Israeli TV report said the mission was not yet halfway complete and the were would last weeks.

This is starting out well but as the press conference was ongoing, there was a report saying Iran had sent missiles…

Israel's prime minister is set to hold his first press conference in more than a week at 1830 GMT (2:30 pm ET).

There are various reports about a rift between the US and Israel and Trump did not appear to be happy about the attacks (and counter-attacks) on energy infrastructure.

Just now a report from the Israeli Broadcasting Corp, citing sources, says the joint Israel–US campaign is expected to continue for "several more weeks".

Trump wrote in the middle of the night:

Israel, out of anger for what has taken place in the Middle East, has violently lashed out at a major facility known as South Pars Gas Field in Iran. A relatively small section of the whole has been hit. The United States knew nothing about this particular attack, and the…

• US is ahead of schedule (he indicated 4-5 weeks at the start)
• Iran's leadership is gone, they are looking for new leaders again
• Not putting US troops anywhere
• Will be speaking about Japan's support on Iran, believes Japan is stepping up
• Asking for more money for Iran
• Said he told Netanyahu not to strike oil and gas. We're not doing that anymore
• A lot of military defections in Iran
• Powell is stubborn, incompetent and not a smart person

Takaichi said she brought proposals to stabilize the energy market and that Japan has been reaching out to Iran.

The market isn't moving much on this as we've heard it before.

Bessent:

• The Iranian regime will probably collapse on itself

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

One option for Trump to get energy prices down domestically would be to implement an export ban.

Politico reports:

The White House will not implement a crude export ban, and told oil executives as much at this morning’s meeting with API, per an admin official who participated in the meeting.

HFI Research illustrates some of the problems a ban would cause, as the US system is highly integrated with foreign energy.

I don't think people realize how bad a crude export ban would be for US shale producers. Here's an illustrative example. Refinery throughput would remain depressed due to crude quality mismatch. All of the crude imports will come from Canada + some from Venezuela. US shale is now landlocked, so US commercial crude storage will…

One option for Trump to get energy prices down domestically would be to implement an export ban.

Politico reports:

The White House will not implement a crude export ban, and told oil executives as much at this morning’s meeting with API, per an admin official who participated in the meeting.

HFI Research illustrates some of the problems a ban would cause, as the US system is highly integrated with foreign energy.

I don't think people realize how bad a crude export ban would be for US shale producers. Here's an illustrative example. Refinery throughput would remain depressed due to crude quality mismatch. All of the crude imports will come from Canada + some from Venezuela. US shale is now landlocked, so US commercial crude storage will…

• Prior month 0.2%
• Wholesale inventories -0.5% versus 0.2% expected.
• Wholesale sales 0.5% versus 0.3% expected. Prior month revised higher to 1.3% from 1.0% previously reported

Details:

• Wholesale sales (Jan 2026): $727.5B (+0.5% m/m, +7.5% y/y)

• Prior revision: Dec sales revised higher to +1.3% (from +1.0%)

• Inventories: $909.3B (-0.5% m/m, +1.0% y/y)

• Inventories/Sales ratio: 1.25 (down from 1.33 y/y)

Inventories are down wInventory to sales ratio falling sharply to 1.25 which is near the supply problems from Covid. Low inventories could lead to higher prices. Add tariff costs and the data is not inflation friendly.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.