Market News

• Prior was +0.7%
• Capacity utilization 76.3% vs 76.2% exp
• Prior utilization 76.2% (revised to 76.3%)
• Manufacturing output +0.2% vs +0.1% exp

This is slightly ahead of expectations but won't be a market mover.

• We had in-depth, candid talks

• Talked about bilateral tariffs under new circumstances

• Talked about possible extension of tariff suspensions, other matters

• Talked about concerns of trade, economic issues

• U.S. talked about on recent tariff adjustments

• Chinese side voiced concerns

• Both sides agreed to maintain stability of tariff levels

• Discussed mechanisms on trade, investment

• Both sides discussed trade, economic concerns of each other

• We noticed U.S. roll out of restrictive measures on China

• China raised representations on Section 301 probes

This is generally good news, particularly the 'consensus' part. I tend to think these are the basically the headlines and part of a deal that would have been announced with Trump and Xi. That was going to be a…

• Lowest reading since Sept 1.6%
• Prior was +2.3%
• CPM m/m +0.5% vs +0.7% expected
• Prior CPI m/m 0.0%

Core measures:

• BOC core 2.3% vs 2.6% prior
• BOC core m/m +0.4% vs +0.2% prior
• Core CPI % m/m % vs +0.1% prior
• CPI median +2.3% vs +2.4% expected (prior was 2.5%)
• CPI trim +2.3% vs 2.4% expected (prior was 2.4%)
• CPI common 2.4% vs 2.7% prior
• Gasoline prices -14.2% vs -16.7% y/y prior
• Gasoline prices +3.6% m/m vs -13.8% m/m prior
• Shelter +1.5% vs +1.7% y/y prior

Canadian headline CPI inflation has decelerated markedly in early 2026, falling to 1.8% year-over-year in February from 2.3% in January and 2.4% in December 2025. Much of the recent volatility reflects base-year distortions tied to the federal government's temporary GST/HST tax holiday, which ran from…

• Prior month 7.1

Details from the NY Fed

• New orders: 6.4 versus 5.8 last month , little changed, indicating a modest increase in demand.

• Shipments: -6.9 versus -1.0 last month, down 6 points, showing declining shipments.

• Unfilled orders: 10.8 versus 9.1 last month, up 2 points, suggesting backlogs increased.

• Delivery times: 13.7 versus 4.0 last month, up 10 points, indicating longer delivery times.

• Inventories: 6.9 versus 7.1 last month. Increased, pointing to higher stock levels at manufacturers.

• Supply availability: -3.9, slightly worse than the prior month.

• Employment: 5.8 versus a 4.0 last month, up 2 points, signaling modest job growth.

• Average workweek: 1.9 versus 2.1 last month, little changed, indicating slightly longer hours.

• Prices paid…

Bessent says that:

• We will see if Trump's visit will take place as scheduled
• Markets should not assume any rescheduling is because of any conflict between the US and China
• We discussed a new tariffs regime in meeting with Chinese counterparts over the weekend
• We do not want to decouple but are doing a strategic change on trade relations
• Any delay to Trump's visit would not be because of the Strait of Hormuz topic
• If the visit is rescheduled, it would be Trump's decision to stay in the US amid the Iran war

More to come..

Headlines:

• Trump demands allies to help on Strait of Hormuz but here's why it won't work
• UAE's Fujairah oil port attacked again, oil loading has been suspended
• US, Japan top diplomats set for phone conversation later today - report
• US futures hold slightly higher for now but danger lurks just around the corner
• USDJPY trades around intervention levels as Japanese officials remain constrained
• China reaffirms that they are in communication with US on Trump's visit

Markets:

• WTI crude oil down 1.5% to $97.30, Brent crude oil down 0.2% to $103.20
• US dollar lower across the board as risk sentiment improves
• European indices slightly higher, S&P 500 futures up 0.7% on the day
• US 10-year yields down 3 bps to 4.25%
• Gold down 0.1% to $5,017, Silver down 1.5% to…

Prediction markets are sending a sharper message than many traditional headlines right now

The biggest move is in rates. The market mood has turned more hawkish as energy-driven inflation risk rises, even though many economists were still recently centered on a June Fed cut. That gap matters because it shows how quickly traders are repricing the inflation fallout from the Iran war compared with the slower-moving survey consensus. Reuters reported that both Barclays and Goldman Sachs pushed their first Fed cut call to September, with Barclays now expecting only one 25 basis point cut in 2026. In other words, the market is not fully calling recession as the base case. It is first saying that the inflation shock is changing the rates story…

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 0.36%, Shanghai Composite down 0.71% Hang Seng up 1.14% ASX down 0.34%
• Commodities : Gold at $5,024.21 (-0.73%) Silver at $80.505 (-0.96%), Brent Oil at $104.56 (1.38%), WTI Oil at $97.75 (0.92%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.262, UK 10-year yield at 4.8270, Germany 10-year yield at 2.9768

• (USD) Prelim GDP q/q 213K  to 214K  expected
• (USD) Core PCE Price Index m/m 213K  to 214K  expected

Asia-Pacific markets declined on Monday as investors reacted to rising oil prices and the escalating conflict between the United States and Iran. Concerns about supply disruptions pushed crude prices higher, increasing uncertainty across global…

It is reported that a call is being arranged between Japan foreign minister Motegi and US secretary of state Rubio for later today, according to sources familiar with bilateral relations. Among what will be discussed is likely the topic of the Strait of Hormuz, after US president Trump has called for ally countries to dispatch warships to the region to act as escorts. I mentioned earlier here why that won't go down too well.

As a reminder, Japan is arguably one of, if not, the most impacted third-party by the US-Iran conflict. And it is in part complicating things domestically, not least with a struggling currency. From earlier: Tokyo intervention looms large as USD/JPY nears 160 mark

Besides that particular topic, it is reported that…

It is reported that a call is being arranged between Japan foreign minister Motegi and US secretary of state Rubio for later today, according to sources familiar with bilateral relations. Among what will be discussed is likely the topic of the Strait of Hormuz, after US president Trump has called for ally countries to dispatch warships to the region to act as escorts. I mentioned earlier here why that won't go down too well.

As a reminder, Japan is arguably one of, if not, the most impacted third-party by the US-Iran conflict. And it is in part complicating things domestically, not least with a struggling currency. From earlier: Tokyo intervention looms large as USD/JPY nears 160 mark

Besides that particular topic, it is reported that…

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 16 March 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

Geopolitical escalation in the US-Israel-Iran conflict overshadowed U.S. data releases like the Empire State Manufacturing Index and February Industrial Production on March 16, 2026, triggering a WTI oil price spike to $119/bbl before retreat, boosting energy stocks but pressuring broader equities (S&P 500, Nasdaq down ~1%), lifting DXY to 99.73, and heightening VIX to ~27 amid inflation fears curbing Fed rate cut hopes.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian traders face a volatile open, driven primarily by escalating Middle East tensions impacting oil prices and regional equities. Key developments include surging crude oil prices…