Market News

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 16 March 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

Geopolitical escalation in the US-Israel-Iran conflict overshadowed U.S. data releases like the Empire State Manufacturing Index and February Industrial Production on March 16, 2026, triggering a WTI oil price spike to $119/bbl before retreat, boosting energy stocks but pressuring broader equities (S&P 500, Nasdaq down ~1%), lifting DXY to 99.73, and heightening VIX to ~27 amid inflation fears curbing Fed rate cut hopes.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian traders face a volatile open, driven primarily by escalating Middle East tensions impacting oil prices and regional equities. Key developments include surging crude oil prices…

US Stocks Drop into Weekend as War Continues – Nasdaq down 0.9%
US markets closed the week on a softer note on Friday as the conflict in the Middle East entered its third week, with little indication that tensions are about to ease. Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty kept investors cautious, with all three major US equity indices finishing the session lower. The Dow slipped 0.26% to close at 46,598, while the S&P 500 fell 0.61% to 6,632, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.93% to end the week at 22,105. Currency markets saw the US Dollar continue its recent run higher, with the DXY climbing 0.76% to reach 100.50 and mark fresh annual highs. US Treasury yields were mixed on the session. The 2-year yield eased by 2.4 basis points to 3.717%, while the…

As a reminder, US president Trump is scheduled to make a visit to China from 31 March to 2 April. Beijing has not officially confirmed the dates but it seems like the visit will still take place regardless. After all, it's now a case of Trump needing to do so or risk losing face. That especially after the US Supreme Court shot down his tariffs, which now gives China more leverage on their end.

Top officials from both sides met in Paris over the weekend, with reports suggesting that talks were "remarkably stable" and that they were "candid and constructive".

With Trump and Xi set to meet for the first time since October last year, both sides will want to lay out more "progress" on both trade and economic ties surely. But as mentioned before,…

But no one will answer.

In a desperate attempt to try and "fix" this whole mess of a situation, US president Trump has called for allies to step in and help with the Strait of Hormuz de facto closure. His suggestion is for the countries affected to send their own warships to help escort ships through the strait.

In particular, he calls on Japan, China, South Korea, and the UK to do so since they are the ones who are the most impacted by the Strait of Hormuz blockade. However, here are two key reasons why that just won't do. And even so, the practicality of the whole situation also might not make much sense.

The first being that no other country wants to get involved in a war that they have no business with. It's wild to think that Trump…

But no one will answer.

In a desperate attempt to try and "fix" this whole mess of a situation, US president Trump has called for allies to step in and help with the Strait of Hormuz de facto closure. His suggestion is for the countries affected to send their own warships to help escort ships through the strait.

In particular, he calls on Japan, China, South Korea, and the UK to do so since they are the ones who are the most impacted by the Strait of Hormuz blockade. However, here are two key reasons why that just won't do. And even so, the practicality of the whole situation also might not make much sense.

The first being that no other country wants to get involved in a war that they have no business with. It's wild to think that Trump…

• US strikes on targets at Iran’s Kharg Island have raised fears of a wider escalation
• China says economy off to solid start but demand remains weak
• Trump is weighing a seizure of Iran's critical oil depot on Kharg Island
• China industrial output beats forecasts as property slump deepens
• Strait of Hormuz ship traffic collapses to zero amid conflict, energy corridor shuts
• Chinese house price slump continues: -3.2% y/y in February (-3.1% prior)
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.9057 (vs. estimate at 6.9061)
• Global equity funds see largest outflows since December
• Japan warns ready to take decisive action on FX - ramps up verbal intervention on yen
• Oil lower to fill gap as Trump presses allies for Hormuz help
• Reserve Bank of New Zealand…

Summary:

• China’s statistics bureau said the economy has made a “sound start” to 2026.

• Industrial output and retail sales beat expectations earlier in the day.

• Officials cited technological innovation and AI as supporting growth.

• Authorities warned the economy still faces “strong supply, weak demand.”

• Consumption is expected to rise as policy support measures take effect.

• The government may need additional steps to strengthen demand.

• China said its energy supply capacity is sufficient despite global volatility.

Chinese officials said the economy has started the year on a relatively solid footing but acknowledged that weak domestic demand remains a key challenge despite stronger industrial activity.

Speaking after the release of China’s latest…

China’s industrial output, retail sales and investment beat expectations early in 2026, but the property sector remained deeply in contraction.

Summary:

• China’s industrial output rose 6.3% y/y, beating forecasts of 5.0% and accelerating from December’s 5.2%.

• Retail sales increased 2.8% y/y, above the 2.5% forecast and up from December’s 0.9%.

• Fixed-asset investment rose 1.8% y/y versus expectations for a 2.1% decline.

• Infrastructure investment surged 11.4% y/y.

• Private-sector investment fell 2.6% y/y.

• Property investment dropped 11.1% y/y after a 17.2% decline in 2025.

• Property sales fell 13.5%, construction starts slid 23.1%, and developer funding dropped 16.5%.

China’s economic activity showed mixed momentum at the start of 2026, with industrial…

China New Home Prices February 2026

• -0.28% m/m (prior -0.37%)
• -3.2% y/y (prior -3.1%

Used Home Prices

• -0.43% m/m (prior –0.54%)

Still to come: