Market News

U.S. and Chinese officials held what 'sources' described as constructive talks in Paris to stabilise trade ties ahead of a planned Trump–Xi summit in Beijing.

Summary:

• U.S. and Chinese officials held “candid and constructive” trade talks in Paris.

• Discussions focused on stabilising the bilateral trade relationship.

• China may consider increasing purchases of U.S. agricultural products.

• U.S. officials pushed for more Chinese imports of Boeing aircraft and energy products.

• Rare earth supply challenges facing American firms were also discussed.

• Proposals for managed trade and investment frameworks were explored.

• Technical negotiations will continue ahead of a planned Trump–Xi summit in Beijing.

U.S. and Chinese officials have held what sources…

New Zealand electronic card retail spending rose in February from the previous month.

The electronic card data covers around 68% of core retail sales and serves as the country’s primary monthly gauge of retail activity.

Earlier:

• New Zealand services sector falls back into contraction in February

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

New Zealand electronic card retail spending rose in February from the previous month.

The electronic card data covers around 68% of core retail sales and serves as the country’s primary monthly gauge of retail activity.

Earlier:

• New Zealand services sector falls back into contraction in February

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

New Zealand’s services sector slipped back into contraction in February, signalling a slower-than-expected economic recovery.

Summary:

• New Zealand’s services sector returned to contraction in February.

• The BNZ–BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index fell to 48.0 from January’s 50.7 level.

• The reading sits well below the long-run survey average of 52.8.

• All major sub-indices were in contraction territory.

• Stocks/inventories and employment recorded the weakest readings.

• Businesses cited high living costs, interest rates and weak demand as key pressures.

• Economists say the data suggests the economic recovery is slower than expected.

New Zealand’s services sector slipped back into contraction in February, signalling that the country’s economic…

Chinese military aircraft activity near Taiwan has surged again after an unusual two-week lull that had prompted speculation about Beijing’s intentions.

Info via Politico.

Summary:

• Taiwan detected 26 Chinese military aircraft near the island on Saturday.

• Sixteen aircraft entered Taiwan’s air defence identification zone across multiple sectors.

• Seven Chinese naval vessels were also operating near the island.

• The surge follows an unusual two-week lull in Chinese military flights.

• Analysts had speculated the drop was linked to China’s National People’s Congress meeting.

• Others suggested Beijing may have sought to ease tensions before a potential Trump visit to China.

• Taiwan says it did not adjust its defence posture during the slowdown.

Taiwan has…

• The Pentagon is moving additional warships to the Middle East
• Trump says war will end when he feels it "in my bones"
• US GDP for Q4 (2nd revision) 0.7% vs 1.4% estimate and prior
• US PCE inflation +2.8% y/y vs +2.9% expected
• JOLTs job openings for January 6.946M vs 6.700M estimate
• University of Michigan sentiment (preliminary) for March 55.5 versus 55.0 estimate
• Canada February employment change -83.9K vs +10K expected
• Federal Judge quashes subpoenas sent to Fed and Chairman Jerome Powell
• Trump approval slips to 44% — markets should be watching the midterm risk
• Bad news for housing. The average rate on 30 year fixed mortgage rises to 6.41%.
• Barclays pushes back expectations for Fed rate cuts
• The US and Cuba are talking

Markets:

• WTI crude oil up $2.23…

The latest NBC poll shows Trump's approval among registered voters down 3 points to 44% from 47% in March 2025, with disapproval climbing to 54%. The DDHQ polling average paints a similar picture at 43.1/54.4.

What matters for markets here is the midterm setup. Trump himself is flagging the risk, noting the historical pattern of the White House party getting punished in midterms. If Republicans lose ground in Congress, that reshapes the legislative landscape for tax policy, tariffs, and deregulation — all of which are priced into current equity valuations to some degree.

The issue-by-issue numbers are telling: border security polls at 53% approval, but immigration broadly sits at just 44% and Iran policy at 41%. The Epstein file handling…

Canada just posted its worst jobs report since the pandemic.

The 83,900 jobs losses were the worst in a month since 2022 and -- worse yet, there were 108K full-time jobs lost. That's led to a slump in the Canadian dollar and boosted USD/CAD by 90 pips to 1.3728. That's the highest for the pair since March 7.

The report led to the unemployment rate rising to 6.7% from 6.5% but that metric is worth some perspective as it had been above 7% in the middle of last year.

Looking at the chart, it's not clear if this is the start of a renewed rise or a blip.

It's the same on the headline number as Canadian jobs reports tend to be very volatile and that's particularly true lately as estimates of the country's population have bounced around due to a…

The average rate of 30 year mortgage has shot up to 6.41%. That is the highest rate since September of last year and comes after the rate dipped below the 6.00% level to 5.98% during the week of February 23.

The spike in rates is following the rise in the 10 year note. The 10 year yield has moved up from 3.926% to the current rate of 4.283% since the start of the Iranian war.

Looking at the weekly chart, the yield has moved back above its 100 week moving average at 4.248% (blue line on the chart below). Last week, the price extended back above its 200 week moving average currently at 4.024% (Green line on the chart below)..

The 10 year yield is up 0.8 basis points in trading today.

US stocks are down on the day but off its session lows.

• Dow…

The WSJ reports that the US is moving additional warships to the Middle East, citing three US officials. It says that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has approved a request from U.S. Central Command, responsible for American forces in the Middle East, for an element of an amphibious ready group and attached Marine expeditionary unit.

Such a unit would typically include several warships and 5,000 Marines, the officials said.

The Japan-based USS Tripoli and its attached Marines are now headed for the Middle East, two of the officials said.

On that ship:

She is a America-class amphibious assault ship — essentially a flat-deck vessel that functions similarly to a light aircraft carrier. LHA-7 was built by Huntington Ingalls Industries in…

We are deep into the improvisation phase of the war with Iran.

Donald Trump told The Brian Kilmeade Show he will know the Iran conflict is over “when I feel it in my bones." On a somewhat more-concrete note, he suggested it may not last much longer.

The market doesn't appear to be shifting in that direction. A WSJ report said the Pentagon sent a marine exeditionary unit to the Middle East, though it's not clear where. The fear is that a ground war could be coming.

WTI crude oil is now down just 60 cents to $95.12 after falling as low as $92.04 earlier. The S&P 500 is down 10 points after rising by 60 points earlier.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Mexico's President said she helped to broker talks between the US and Cuba that are now confirmed.

Various reports said the talks have started and today Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel confirmed his government is holding talks with the Trump administration.

"These conversations have been aimed at seeking solutions through dialogue to the bilateral differences that exist between our two nations," Díaz-Canel said.

Trump didn't tweet directly about talks but posted an article citing talks on Truth Social.

The talks are only in the initial phase and Trump previously said they may or may not include “a friendly takeover” of the island.

Díaz-Canel said today that no fuel has entered the island in three months.

A report last week in USA today…