Market News

• Consumer sentiment preliminary for March 55.5 vs 55.0 estimate. Weakest cents December of last year.
• prior month 56.6.
• Current conditions 57.8 vs 56.6 prior month
• Expectations 54.1 vs 56.6 prior month. Weakest since November of last year.
• 1 year inflation expectations 3.4% vs 3.4% prior month
• 5 year inflation expectations 3.2% vs 3.3% prior month

Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu

Consumer sentiment dipped about 2%, reaching its lowest reading of the year. Interviews completed prior to the military action in Iran showed an improvement in sentiment from last month, but lower readings seen during the nine days thereafter completely erased those initial gains. Gasoline prices have exerted the most immediate impact felt by consumers, though…

• Prior month 6.542M revised to 6.550M
• JOLTs Job openings for January 6.946MM vs 6.700 M estimate.
• Hires 5.294M vs 5.272M prior (revised)
• Separations 5.105M vs 5.203M prior (revised)
• Quits 3.137M vs 3.225M prior (revised)
• Layoffs and discharges 1.631M vs 1.666M (revised)

For 2025 what did the numbers do?

• Job openings: Annual average 7.1 million in 2025, down 571K from 2024; openings rate 4.3% vs 4.6% in 2024.

• Hires: 63.0 million in 2025, down 1.5 million from 2024; hires rate 3.3% (down from 3.4%).

• Total separations: 62.8 million, down 251K from 2024; separations rate 3.3% (unchanged).

• Quits: 38.0 million, down 1.3 million, accounting for 60.6% of total separations; quits rate 2.0%.

• Layoffs and discharges: 21.2 million, up 1.2 million, accounting for…

US equity futures are flirting with the best levels of the pre-market following a wave of economic data that points to rate cuts if/when the US or Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Notable in the pre-market news was a report saying that Trump told other world leaders earlier this week that he expected Iran to surrender shortly. We also heard from Hegseth who claimed that Iran's new supreme leader is "wounded and likely disfigured". A new report also said France and Italy opened talks with Iran in the hopes of securing safe passage for its oil.

All that's leading to some optimism the war can be wrapped up shortly, though there are certainly cogent arguments that the US has overplayed its hand and the oil can be cut off for months.

In terms of…

• Prior estimate 1.4%
• GDP 2nd estimate 0.7% versus 1.4% preliminary. This is well below the expectations going into the 1st cut of the GDP (was expecting 3.0%).
• GDP Deflator 3.8% vs 3.6% est. and 3.7% preliminary
• Core PCE 2.7% versus 2.7% estimate and 2.7% preliminary
• GDP sales preliminary 0.4% versus 1.2% preliminary.
• Consumer spending 2.0% versus 2.4% preliminary
• PCE price is preliminary 2.9% versus 2.9% preliminary
• PCE X food, energy, and housing 2.8% versus 2.8% preliminary
• PCE services excluding energy and housing 3.6% versus 3.6% preliminary

The Q1 estimate for GDP from the Atlanta Fed GDP model estimates Q1 growth at 2.7% given released data.

• Prior was +2.9%
• PCE M/M +0.3% vs +0.3% expected
• Prior +0.4%
• Core PCE Y/Y +2.8% vs +3.1% expected
• Prior +3.0%
• Core PCE M/M +0.4% vs +0.4% expected
• Prior +0.4%

Consumer spending and income for January:

• Personal income +0.4% vs +0.5% expected
• Prior +0.3%
• Personal spending 0.4% vs +0.4% expected
• Prior +0.3%
• Real personal spending +0.1% vs +0.1% prior

This is a problematic report for the Federal Reserve doves. The numbers were mostly in-line with expectations but if you zoom in, that's back-to-back months of +0.4% core PCE. You don't need too many more months like that to get to 2% inflation and those numbers will stay in the y/y calculation for the next 10 months. In addition, the energy price shock is coming.

For some background, the Personal Income and…

• Prior -24.8K

• Unemployment rate: 6.7% vs 6.6% expected

• Prior 6.5%

• Full-time employment change: -108.4K vs +44.9k last month

• Part-time employment change: +24.5K vs -69.7K last month

• Participation rate: 64.9% vs 65.0% last month

• Average hourly wages (permanent, YoY): 4.2% vs 3.3% last month

This is an awful jobs report. The Canadian dollar is selling off across the board.

StatCan notes that "employment declines in February were recorded in services-producing industries (-56,000; -0.3%) and goods-producing industries (-28,000; -0.7%). The largest declines were in wholesale and retail trade (-18,000; -0.6%), and 'other services' such as personal and repair services (-14,000; -1.8%)."

• Trump on Iran: Going to be hitting them very hard over the next week
• Trump claimed Iran was "about to surrender" a day before the Supreme Leader vowed to fight
• How have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events?
• Why the US dollar is skyrocketing if rate hike bets increase for other central banks?
• Spain February final CPI +2.3% vs +2.3% y/y prelim
• France February final CPI +0.9% vs +1.0% y/y prelim
• UK January monthly GDP +0.0% vs +0.2% m/m expected
• FX option expiries for 13 March 10am New York cut
• What are the main events for today?

It's been a pretty volatile session despite the lack of market-moving news or data releases. The main mover was the US dollar as the greenback extended the gains to a 4-month high amid the unwinding of…

Trump reportedly told G7 leaders during a virtual summit on Wednesday that Iran was on the verge of a total military and political collapse. According to a report by Axios, which cited three officials from G7 countries briefed on the call, Trump expressed supreme confidence in the outcome of the ongoing conflict, stating that the Iranian regime was "about to surrender."

That stands in stark contrast to the real situation on the ground, where we continue to see daily strikes and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. The report added that Trump’s remarks to the G7 leaders were characterized by his signature bravado and a refusal to set a specific timeline for ending the hostilities.

Just a day after Trump's remarks, the new Iran's Supreme…

• On US escorts in Strait of Hormuz: We would do it if we needed to
• Hopefully, things are going to go very well
• We're going to see what happens

Trump is clearly vowing to escalate the war further here which should keep the markets in defensive mode, especially heading into the weekend.

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 13 March 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

Escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly the Iran conflict, which drove sharp gains in oil prices despite a 400 million barrel release from IEA reserves. European markets closed lower amid these developments, with the FTSE projected down 0.2%, DAX 1%, CAC 40 0.8%, and FTSE MIB 1.1%, reflecting broader risk-off sentiment; U.S. indices like the S&P 500 dipped 0.21% to 6,781 amid crude nearing $100.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian markets saw broad declines on Thursday due to oil surges from Gulf ship attacks, with tech ADRs slipping and Softbank weakening on PayPay IPO pricing below range; Japan’s gaming firms bucked the…

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 13 March 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

Escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly the Iran conflict, which drove sharp gains in oil prices despite a 400 million barrel release from IEA reserves. European markets closed lower amid these developments, with the FTSE projected down 0.2%, DAX 1%, CAC 40 0.8%, and FTSE MIB 1.1%, reflecting broader risk-off sentiment; U.S. indices like the S&P 500 dipped 0.21% to 6,781 amid crude nearing $100.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian markets saw broad declines on Thursday due to oil surges from Gulf ship attacks, with tech ADRs slipping and Softbank weakening on PayPay IPO pricing below range; Japan’s gaming firms bucked the…