Market News

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 12 March 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Asian markets opened volatily due to persistent Middle East-linked oil and inflation concerns, China’s subdued growth outlook from the NPC, and supportive Chinese data boosting AUD and metals, with oil prices easing, DXY mixed, AUDUSD gaining, and Treasuries under pressure from rising yields, shifting investor flows toward defensives.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Traders should closely monitor key U.S. macroeconomic releases today, including Housing Starts for January and Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 7, alongside ongoing market reactions to yesterday’s steady February CPI inflation data at 2.4%…

US Markets Hit as War Continues – Nasdaq down 1.8%
US stock markets came under heavy selling pressure overnight as geopolitical tensions intensified in the Middle East after Iran signalled it would continue fighting and maintain the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global energy shipments. The escalation in tensions drove a broad risk-off move across financial markets, pushing the US Dollar higher, lifting Treasury yields, and sending oil prices sharply higher. On Wall Street, all three major indices finished firmly in the red. The Dow fell 1.56% to close at 46,677, while the S&P 500 dropped 1.52% to finish at 6,692. Technology stocks also struggled, with the Nasdaq Composite sliding 1.78% to end the session at…

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 1.76%, Shanghai Composite down 0.64 Hang Seng down 1.27% ASX down 1.20%
• Commodities : Gold at $5,158.39 (-0.41%) Silver at $85.105 (-0.62%), Brent Oil at $100.43 (9.22%), WTI Oil at $94.43 (8.21%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.238, UK 10-year yield at 4.6840, Germany 10-year yield at 2.9318

• (USD) Core CPI m/m 0.2%  to 0.2%  expected
• (USD) CPI m/m 0.3%  to 0.3%  expected
• (USD) CPI y/y 2.4%  to 2.4%  expected

Asia-Pacific markets declined on Thursday as investors reacted to volatile oil prices and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The uncertainty comes despite a major announcement by the U.S. and its allies to…

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 1.76%, Shanghai Composite down 0.64 Hang Seng down 1.27% ASX down 1.20%
• Commodities : Gold at $5,158.39 (-0.41%) Silver at $85.105 (-0.62%), Brent Oil at $100.43 (9.22%), WTI Oil at $94.43 (8.21%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.238, UK 10-year yield at 4.6840, Germany 10-year yield at 2.9318

• (USD) Core CPI m/m 0.2%  to 0.2%  expected
• (USD) CPI m/m 0.3%  to 0.3%  expected
• (USD) CPI y/y 2.4%  to 2.4%  expected

Asia-Pacific markets declined on Thursday as investors reacted to volatile oil prices and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The uncertainty comes despite a major announcement by the U.S. and its allies to…

US Stocks Mixed as Oil Rallies and War Continues – Dow down 0.6%
US equity markets experienced another choppy trading session overnight as investors continued to monitor developments in the Middle East. The Dow Jones led the declines, falling 0.61% to close at 47,417, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed near flat. The S&P slipped 0.08% to finish at 6,775, while the Nasdaq managed to edge slightly higher, rising 0.08% to end the session at 22,716. In currency markets, the US Dollar eventually strengthened in whippy trading during the day, with the DXY rising 0.35% to 99.26 by the close as higher Treasury yields supported the greenback. US bond markets saw yields push higher again as traders continued to scale back expectations for Federal…

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 12 March 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

February’s CPI inflation figures, alongside OPEC’s monthly oil market report, EIA weekly U.S. oil inventories, and U.S. federal budget data, collectively drove significant market reactions. These releases heightened focus on inflation trends, energy supply dynamics, and fiscal health, with CPI outcomes particularly pivotal for gauging Federal Reserve rate path expectations.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Ongoing Middle East tensions, particularly US-Iran developments, as President Trump’s hints at a potential war end have spurred partial market rebounds, but oil prices remain volatile above $85-$100 per barrel for WTI/Brent amid…

• Prior +2.3%
• HICP +2.5% vs +2.5% y/y prelim
• Prior +2.4%
• Core CPI +2.7% vs +2.6% y/y prior

No changes to the preliminary estimates here. As mentioned for the French CPI, the data hasn't been much of importance for the market as the focus remains on the US-Iran war and the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz which is keeping oil prices elevated.

The market is pricing in two rate hikes for the ECB by year-end. In my opinion, these expectations are overblown as that would just increase the pressure on stock markets, tighten financial conditions further and exacerbate the negative impact on the broader economy.

• Prior +0.3%
• HICP +1.1% vs +1.1% y/y prelim
• Prior +0.4%

The HICP is the more important measure as that's what the ECB targets. The final figure matches the preliminary estimate, so there's nothing to see here.

The data hasn't been much of importance for the market anyway as the focus remains on the US-Iran war and the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz which is keeping oil prices elevated.