Market News

• UK August Nationwide house prices +0.2% vs +0.1% m/m expected
• Prior +0.1%; revised to -0.1%
• UK August Nationwide house prices +1.6% vs +2.0% y/y expected
• Prior +1.8%; revised to +1.4%

UK house prices moved up slightly in August but overall remains steady after a negative revision to the July figure. Overall, it still points to rather tepid and subdued activity in the housing market. That as economic uncertainty continues to linger amid ongoing tensions between US and Iran, with the impact spilling over to inflation and rates.

While the monthly index moved up, the average price of a dwelling in the UK did drop a little to £275,465. The annual change is still reflecting a positive figure, so that at least is reaffirming that the resilience seen…

• Germany July retail sales -3.4% vs +0.4% m/m expected
• Prior -0.7%; revised to 0.0%

Death, taxes, and German economic data disappointing on estimates. What else is new. This is another really poor reading, though it is exacerbated by a positive revision to the June figure. But still, it's a very poor start to consumer sentiment in the third quarter to say the least.

In real terms, German retail sales in July is down 2.5% compard to the same month a year ago. That is a sharp decline from it being 0.6% higher comparatively back in June.

Looking at the details, the big drop in July comes as we see the end of the fuel discount that was in effect during May and June. Of note, petrol station sales declined heavily by 9.1% in real terms on the month.…

Ethereum futures analysis today show that right now, bulls are still better than bears (... and see where that might change)

Ethereum futures are trading near $2,495.50, with buyers holding the short-term advantage above today's developing VWAP near $2,477.70. The outlook is mildly bullish, but ETH is already testing resistance around $2,498-$2,500. Sustained trade above $2,500 would strengthen continuation, while a break below $2,470 would activate the bearish scenario.

Key takeaways for Ethereum traders and crypto investors today Prediction score: +3 / +10 This reflects a mild bullish edge, not a strong breakout signal or an automatic reason to buy. Short-term control: $2,477.70 Bulls remain stronger while ETH holds above…

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.

That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1600 mark. It's a brand new month, but seems to be a bit of the same old story for EUR/USD. The expiries at 1.1600 once again don't tie much to any technical significance but are likely to offer some pull factor in keeping price action more limited for now.

It was the case yesterday, which saw the euro be more or less the only major currency to move a little higher against the dollar. That while others remained more muted in general, with traders still digesting the hawkish push from Fed chair Warsh on Friday last week.

The expiries here may yet keep price action more limited on the day, in and around the figure level. That as…

Let's get right into it. Headline annual inflation is expected to move up to 3.3% (previously 2.9%) while core annual inflation is expected at 2.5% (previouly 2.5%). As always, the read on core prices is still the most important here. And while not expected to push up, it hasn't exactly come back down to 2% either.

The bigger picture concern is that the more headline prices continue to be pushed up, be it due to higher energy prices and what not, there will eventually be spillovers to broader categories i.e. food and services.

So, it doesn't mean that core prices keeping steadier is a "good sign". The report needs to be taken as a whole alongside the latest developments that are impacting price pressures globally.

In that sense, the US-Iran…

Bessent is in North Carolina for the G20 finance leaders' gathering but he has met BOJ governor Ueda and Japan finance minister Suzuki on the sidelines already. And it seems like he has made it clear to them, that Japan has to do its part to take more action after the US agreed to help intervene in the market at the end of July and early August.

As mentioned at the time, "there seems to be a suggestion that US-Japan joint intervention had involved some silent agreement for the BOJ to play their part too".

And now Bessent is not shying away from trying to drop hints about that. He said that he hopes Ueda and the BOJ would "do the right thing" on monetary policy. And on fiscal policy, he is also taking a poke at the Japanese administration…

• Preview: Westpac sees RBNZ hiking OCR to 2.75% tomorrow, data dependent from there
• MOF official: Katayama, Bessent talks covered FX intervention, fiscal policy
• Japan finmin Katayama and Bessent affirm need for orderly yen moves
• China private PMI beats forecast, longest upturn in five years. AUD support.
• China data: RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (August 2026) 51.5 vs. expected 50.9, prior 50.9
• TD Securities sees gold risk to 4200 near term, 5350 target by 2027
• UBS says 3 reasons the Venezuela oil deal wont move prices much, Hormuz still key
• Japan manufacturing PMI hits 54.9 as new orders surge most since 2018
• New report shows scale of China's state-backed equity market support, State capital and buybacks
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.7809 (vs.…

Westpac's central call is for a straightforward, consensus 25bp hike with little new signal, which should limit the scope for a sharp market reaction unless the RBNZ's language on October diverges from the data dependent framing Westpac expects. The bank puts only a 10 to 15 percent probability on either a hawkish surprise, an upgraded neutral rate assumption or a stronger signal toward back to back hikes in October and December, or a dovish surprise suggesting a pause through December, meaning the balance of risk around the base case is roughly symmetric rather than skewed. For NZD, the more market moving elements are likely to be forecast track rather than the hike itself, since the OCR path is already priced consistently with a 3…

The unnamed MOF official's line that the BOJ will guide policy based on the economy "rather than based on what the U.S. tells it to do" is a notably firmer statement than anything Katayama herself offered publicly, and reads as pushing back gently on the framing set by Bessent's own comments earlier in the day, in which he said he believes Japan will act to strengthen the yen and that markets are pricing in a BOJ hike. Taken together with Katayama's own refusal to characterise current yen levels, the additional detail that FX intervention and Japan's fiscal policy were explicit agenda items in the bilateral meeting, and that Katayama walked G7 counterparts through the conditions behind the July 31 joint intervention, suggests Tokyo is…

This print beats the roughly 51.0 consensus flagged ahead of the release and lands the day after the NBS official PMI also improved, giving AUD traders confirmation from both the state weighted and export weighted surveys in the same week, a combination that tends to build conviction faster than either gauge moving alone.

The strongest export growth in six months is the standout detail for the AUD-proxy trade specifically, since it points to firmer external demand for Chinese manufactured goods rather than just domestically stimulated activity, a distinction that matters given Australia's exposure runs through Chinese industrial activity more than through Chinese consumption. The first cut to output prices in 2026, even as input costs…

This exchange builds directly on Bessent's own comments from the same G20 gathering, in which he said he believes Japan will act to strengthen the yen and that markets are pricing in a BOJ hike, giving that framing an official Japanese counterpart on record confirming the two sides share an understanding on the significance of joint intervention.

The language here is calibrated rather than escalatory, "orderly" moves and "coordinated action" are standard official phrasing that keeps the door open without committing to a specific level or trigger, and Katayama's repeated refusal to comment on whether current yen rates are orderly is itself a signal that Tokyo is not yet ready to characterise current levels as disorderly enough to justify…

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here on this.

• injects 5bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos, 1.4% rate unchanged
• and 359bn yuan through overnight reverse repos

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.