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The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here on this.
RatingDog Manufacturing PMI
Just the data this post.
I'll have more to come on this separately, details and implications.
Background:
Yesterday:
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.Solomon's comments on the term Treasury premium are the most market relevant detail here, framing the recent rise as a longer-term trend driven by fiscal spending, embedded inflation and stronger growth rather than a one-off dislocation, and explicitly saying a 5 percent premium is not a calamity by historical standards. That framing pushes back gently against narratives treating rising long-end yields as an alarm signal, and comes from someone whose firm sits at the centre of the debt-financed AI buildout he was also asked about. His view that large-cap AI-related credit issuance is backed by strong underlying cash flow, while acknowledging some future recalibration is likely, offers a measured counterpoint to more bearish credit-market…
The strength of this reading, particularly the sharpest new orders growth in over eight and a half years, reinforces the case that Japan's export-oriented, semiconductor and AI-linked manufacturing base is running considerably hotter than the broader economy, a distinction worth keeping in mind alongside the weaker domestic demand picture flagged in other Japanese data this cycle. For yen watchers, the report's explicit link between elevated cost pressures and both the weak yen and Middle East linked supply disruption adds a fresh data point to the case Bessent and others have been making for BOJ tightening, since persistent import cost inflation of this kind is precisely the channel through which a weak currency feeds into headline…
TD's framing effectively separates two forces that are usually treated as moving together, dollar weakness and gold strength, and argues they've decoupled for now, since the more dominant driver is the market's reassessment of Fed policy following Warsh's tone.
That's a meaningful distinction for traders who might otherwise assume a softer dollar automatically puts a floor under gold, TD's view suggests the rate expectations channel is currently overriding the currency channel entirely. The reference to Treasury intervention at the long end of the bond market easing financial conditions, while insufficient to offset front end rate pressure, also points to a more granular read of the yield curve than a simple dollar index correlation would…
UBS's core message is one of expectation management, the Venezuela deal grabs headlines but Hormuz remains the variable actually setting the marginal price of oil, given roughly a fifth of global trade historically passed through the strait and the bank sees scope for further escalation as US sanctions pressure builds. That framing argues against reading the Venezuela announcement as a bearish supply signal for crude in the near term, since UBS's own numbers show Venezuelan output has only risen 100,000 to 200,000 barrels a day this year despite the country holding the world's largest proven reserves. The bank's Neutral stance on the energy sector, after a strong year of crude and refining driven gains, alongside its preference for…
Key Takeaways for Traders Today
The scale and packaging here look consistent with coordinated state support for equity sentiment rather than an isolated corporate finance trend. SASAC administers China's central state-owned enterprises and Chengtong is a dedicated state capital operation platform, so their combined 60 billion yuan plus in share purchases represents state capital being directed into listed equities, not independent fund manager positioning.
The report's own language, framing buybacks as solidifying confidence "with real money" and reshaping expectations "through concrete actions," is characteristic of official signalling intended to support sentiment rather than neutral corporate disclosure.
That said, this should be read as a continuation and…
The ship-to-ship workaround is a meaningful development for the supply side of the oil narrative, since it shows exporters have found a way to keep barrels moving without fully resolving the underlying Hormuz risk, helping explain why crude has stabilised even as attacks on shipping continue. Goldman's own framing, that the adaptation implies markets are pricing disruptions persisting into 2027 rather than resolving soon, is arguably more important than the near-term flow numbers themselves, since it suggests the current elevated price band may be viewed as a durable new normal rather than a temporary risk premium. That said, refining margins hitting records is the detail worth watching next: if the bottleneck has genuinely shifted…
The yen strengthened on Bessent's comments, reinforcing what markets were already treating as a near fully priced September BOJ hike, and his remarks add to the case that policy divergence between the Fed and BOJ could narrow from the Japanese side rather than only through Fed easing. With USDJPY sitting close to 160, a level that has previously drawn joint US-Japan intervention, Bessent's language leans on rhetorical support for the currency rather than signalling fresh intervention appetite, since he explicitly said he does not view recent yen moves as disorderly. That distinction matters for FX desks, verbal support without an intervention threat tends to have a shorter half-life than coordinated action, so the durability of any yen…
This is at least the fourth UKMTO-logged projectile strike on shipping in the Khasab area within the past few days, and it lands on top of an already elevated risk premium following the weekend's US-Iran exchange near Larak Island. While no casualties or environmental impact have been reported, three projectile hits rather than one signals a step up in intensity from recent single-strike incidents, and outbound tankers being targeted alongside inbound traffic suggests the disruption is not confined to one direction of flow. With Brent already above 90 dollars and WTI above 86 following Monday's escalation, a fresh incident this close to today's Asian session open is likely to keep a bid under crude and reinforce safe haven flows into the…