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This is at least the fourth UKMTO-logged projectile strike on shipping in the Khasab area within the past few days, and it lands on top of an already elevated risk premium following the weekend's US-Iran exchange near Larak Island. While no casualties or environmental impact have been reported, three projectile hits rather than one signals a step up in intensity from recent single-strike incidents, and outbound tankers being targeted alongside inbound traffic suggests the disruption is not confined to one direction of flow. With Brent already above 90 dollars and WTI above 86 following Monday's escalation, a fresh incident this close to today's Asian session open is likely to keep a bid under crude and reinforce safe haven flows into the…

The acceleration adds a modestly hawkish data point for the Bank of England, coming alongside the Office for National Statistics' own CPI measure, which already showed inflation at a four-month high in July. With the BoE forecasting CPI to peak at 3.2 percent in October and November and food inflation to reach 3.5 percent in December, today's BRC figures suggest that peak may prove sticky rather than a one-off spike, since both the energy and AI-driven chip cost pressures cited by the BRC look structural rather than transitory. For sterling and UK rate markets, the read is a reminder that the BoE's easing path faces the same kind of supply-side complication currently being debated at the Federal Reserve, where AI-related and energy cost…

The dominant dynamic is a hawkish Fed re-pricing colliding with a fresh Gulf escalation, two forces that normally push risk assets and the dollar in opposite directions, currently fighting to a standstill in equities and gold while bond yields and the dollar move unambiguously higher.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks Friday, reinforced by brief but confident G20 comments Monday, sit awkwardly against Treasury Secretary Bessent's own framing from the same day that the Fed traditionally avoids hiking into a supply shock, a tension worth watching given Warsh's tone has if anything hardened rather than softened since Bessent spoke. AUD is caught between the stronger dollar and hawkish Fed backdrop working against it and the oil…

Personnel turnover at the Pentagon is not typically a market moving event on its own, but this one is worth flagging given the pattern it extends. The Army now has no Senate confirmed civilian or military leader at all, with an acting chief of staff already in place after the prior officeholder's firing. Defence and geopolitical risk desks will watch whether the friction driving Driscoll's exit reflects a broader push to reshape senior military leadership, given his prior involvement in Russia-Ukraine negotiations, any perceived instability in that channel could have knock-on relevance for risk sentiment and safe haven flows if it coincides with other geopolitical stress points already in play this week.

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Meanwhile the war rolls on:

• Oil…

For AUD traders, the practical point is that China's PMI complex is really four data points a month, not one, and each carries a different weight.

Manufacturing surprises, especially from the NBS survey, tend to draw the sharpest and fastest reaction given their direct read on the heavy industry and construction linked demand that drives Australian commodity exports. Services and non-manufacturing prints are typically slower burners, but they matter for the domestic demand story, particularly the construction sub-index within the NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI, which speaks directly to Chinese property activity and its knock-on effect on steel and iron ore consumption.

The private Caixin or RatingDog services survey, being more consumption and…

Bessent's remarks landed after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole debut had pushed September hike odds toward 60 percent on CME's FedWatch tool. The dollar ticked lower following the interview, with Bessent's supply shock framing floated as a possible catalyst, even though the implied odds of a hike were little changed on the day. Traders will note that Bessent and Warsh travelled to the G20 together, which Bessent brushed off as tennis talk, but the timing invites speculation that the comments were designed to give Warsh cover to hold off tightening. The final decision rests with the wider committee, where several officials have continued to signal support for a hike, so the gap between Bessent's framing and the voting bloc's tone…

• US broader indices close lower on the day. Nasdaq 100 closes marginally higher
• Trump to announce new drug pricing agreement.
• Strategic Petroleum Reserves fell by 3.1M barrels to 286.6M barrels. Who is to blame?
• Buyers in crude oil had their shot to take price higher from a technical perspective and they missed.
• European shares close closely lower. UK's FTSE 100 and Italy's FTSE MIB close higher
• Treas Sec Bessent: Oil price are going to come down. US 10 year yield is where it was when Pres. Trump took office.
• Treas. Sec Bessent at the G20: Iran taking sanctions seriously
• Trump: Iran has no Navy and Air Force.
• The USD is lower vs major currencies. In the video, I ake a look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD to kickstart the week
• investingLive…

A print at or above the 51.0 consensus would reinforce the narrative building since yesterday's NBS beat, that China's export-facing manufacturers are stabilising even as the broader economy struggles. The private survey's greater weighting toward smaller, export-oriented firms makes it a cleaner read on external demand than the state-heavy NBS gauge. A miss back toward 50.5, especially if paired with softer new orders, would sit awkwardly against yesterday's official data and could revive concerns that the improvement is confined to larger, state-linked producers. Given the size of the AUD's exposure to Chinese demand, a clear beat or miss either side of the 50.9 to 51.0 range carries some scope to move sentiment through the session,…

Yesterday we had the official PMIs from China:

• China factory activity beats forecasts but stays in contraction in August
• China official August Manufacturing PMI 49.8 (expected 49.7, prior 49.2)

Today we get the privately surveyed manufacturing PMI from Rating Dog / S&P Global. I'll get a preview of this postd soon. 

The broader US stock indices are closing lower. Th S&P fell by -0.33%, while the NASDAQ index fell -0.12%.

Looking at the major indices, the Dow is the worst performer led by declines in Amazon (-2.50%), Honeywell (-1.79%) and Sherwin Williams (-1.73%).  The Nasdaq 100 eeked out a small gain (0.08%). A look at the major indices shows:

• Dow Industrial Average: -374.02 points or -0.70% at 53,191.33
• S&P 500: -25.60 points or -0.33% at 7,686.15
• NASDAQ Composite: -31.53 points or -0.12% at 26,370.89
• Russell 2000: -15.92 points or -0.54% at 2,956.45
• NASDAQ 100: +23.55 points or +0.08% at 29,456.97

Some notable winners in today’s trading include:

• Roblox (RBLX): +7.16% at $41.29
• CrowdStrike (CRWD): +5.77% at $231.00
• Tesla (TSLA): +5.51% at…

President Trump is set to announce another round of voluntary drug-pricing agreements today involving Bayer, Takeda, CSL and several midsized biotechnology companies.

Under the agreements, participating drugmakers are expected to provide “most-favored-nation,” or MFN, pricing on outpatient drugs purchased through state Medicaid programs. Prices would be tied more closely to the lower amounts paid in other developed countries, including Canada, Germany, France, Japan and the United Kingdom.

Some companies could also make selected medicines available directly to cash-paying patients through TrumpRx, bypassing insurance companies and pharmacy-benefit managers. In exchange, participating manufacturers could receive protection from…

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell by another 3.1 million barrels to 286.6 million barrels—the lowest level since 1982–83. The SPR is now filled to only about 40% of its authorized capacity of 714 million barrels.

The reserve has declined sharply under both the Biden and Trump administrations, with two wars—and the resulting surges in global oil prices—playing a central role.

Here is how the SPR got here:

• January 20, 2021: The SPR held approximately 638 million barrels when President Biden took office.

• 2022: Biden authorized the release of 180 million barrels following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It was the largest emergency drawdown in SPR history, lowering inventories to roughly 375 million barrels by year-end.

• 2023: Inventories…