Market News

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

Gold sold off on Friday after Fed Chair Warsh delivered a hawkish speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium.

The key passage was him saying "I would be hard pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive". The market interpreted that as him leaning against the recent easing in financial conditions and, therefore, retightened them.

This process has, of course, extended the corrections in the "debasement" trades, with gold basically returning to pre-US Treasury announcement levels. The rate hike probabilities for the September meeting have also increased, with the market now seeing roughly a 60% chance of a hike.

Warsh has also…

●         Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 1.13%, Shanghai Composite down 0.20% Hang Seng down 0.70% ASX down 0.03%

●        Commodities : Gold at $4,474.89 (-1.24%) Silver at $66.885 (-1.33%), Brent Oil at 90.17 (4.69%), WTI Oil at 85.07 (2.00%)

●        Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.710, UK 10-year yield at 5.0695, Germany 10-year yield at 3.2733

●        (USD)     Prelim Benchmark Payrolls Revision  

         79K to 911K  expected

U.S. stock futures slipped Sunday evening after the U.S. military struck Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns that tensions in the Middle East could escalate.

Dow Jones Industrial Average…

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

Crude oil gapped higher today after the US struck Iran's Larak Island on Sunday, the first strikes in over a month, as the IRGC forces were observed preparing to launch rockets with sea mines into the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran retaliated launching ballistic and anti-ship missiles from multiple provinces and struck two US bases in Jordan, King Hussein and Al Azraq. A US source said most missiles were intercepted with no significant impact.

The geopolitical risk premium increased a bit lifting oil prices, but it looks like the usual skirmish that the market might forget quickly.

There’s no appetite for further military operations, as the US is…

The survey showed that all the Swiss bankers surveyed are expecting the SNB to keep its policy rate at 0% for the rest of this year. And looking to 2027, 60% are expecting that to still be the case through the whole of next year.

The remaining respondents on the other side of that balance are expecting the SNB to start hiking interest rates in 2027 instead. All but one respondent expect a push up in the policy rate to 0.25%, with the single outlier response being for a move to 0.50% by the end of next year.

The directional balance is quite an interesting one I would say. Despite inflation pressures growing across the globe, Switzerland is one that hasn't followed suit for the most part. Even the latest inflation numbers here continue to…

Stocks Pull Back After Hawkish Fed Update – Nasdaq down 0.5%

US stocks pulled back in trading on Friday as markets reacted to a more hawkish tone from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, with his comments that the Federal Reserve would remain focused on fighting inflation prompting a sharp repricing of September rate expectations.

The probability of a Fed rate hike at the September meeting jumped from around 40% before Warsh’s keynote speech to close to 60% afterwards, with the shift in expectations driving a sharp move higher in Treasury yields and the US dollar. The Dow Jones slipped 0.02% to 53,559, while the S&P 500 fell 0.25% to 7,711 and the Nasdaq declined 0.52% to 26,402.

Treasury yields surged higher, particularly at…

IC – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 31 August 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

The U.S. session had a hawkish-Fed, dollar-positive, and risk-negative tone. The July PCE figures confirmed that inflation remains above the Fed’s target, while Warsh’s Jackson Hole comments were the major catalyst by substantially increasing expectations for a September rate hike. This pushed Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar higher, while gold, silver, Bitcoin and technology-heavy equities came under significant selling pressure. Going into the next session, market attention is likely to shift toward the upcoming U.S. labor-market releases, particularly payrolls and unemployment, because they could determine whether the renewed rate-hike expectations…

Bitcoin Price Analysis for September 2026: Bulls Need 78,340 to Confirm the Reversal

Bitcoin is attempting an early bullish reversal from 77,165, but the wider structure remains bearish. The recovery becomes more credible if BTC accepts above 78,340, while a sustained move through 79,730-79,920 would provide the stronger structural confirmation still missing from the chart.

Key takeaways from this Bitcoin price analysis

• Current bias: A credible stabilization attempt, but not yet a confirmed bullish trend reversal.
• Prediction score:-3 on a scale from -10 to +10, reflecting a modest bearish edge despite improving short-term order flow.
• Bullish threshold: BTC needs sustained trading above 78,340, not merely a brief wick through it.
• Major…

Key takeaways from Q3 earnings after Nvidia and Marvell

• Nvidia delivered a genuine bullish shock: Its stock gained approximately 8.7%, compared with an expected earnings move of roughly 5.9%.
• The strength extended beyond one company: Salesforce, CrowdStrike, Synopsys and Okta also produced unusually strong positive reactions.
• Marvell interrupted the improvement: Its approximately 10.3% decline was close to the full downside move options markets had priced.
• This remains a stock-picker's earnings season: Strong companies can be rewarded aggressively, while disappointment is still punished quickly.
• The next confirmation matters: Investors should watch whether Nvidia and the recent software winners hold their gains, and whether Marvell's weakness…

The state readings released around the same time:

• Bavaria August CPI +2.9% vs +2.8% y/y prior
• Saxony August CPI +2.9% vs +2.7% y/y prior
• North Rhine Westphalia August CPI +2.9% vs +2.7% y/y prior
• Baden Wuerttemberg August CPI +2.6% vs +2.5% y/y prior

And even the monthly estimates are showing stronger prints after the big jump in July:

• Bavaria August CPI +0.2% m/m
• Saxony August CPI +0.2% m/m
• North Rhine Westphalia August CPI +0.2% m/m
• Baden Wuerttemberg August CPI +0.1% m/m

That in itself continues to reaffirm that price pressures are growing more broadly, not just driven by base effects for the most part.

Based on the estimates above, we should see the overall German national print later come in around 2.9% or 3.0% (rounded up) - so that sort of…