Market News

• Worst since January
• Prior was 90.8 (revised to 90.2)
• Present situation 121.2 vs 114.4 prior
• Expectations 68.2 vs 74.0 prior

This isn't a good read but this indicator is rarely a market mover.

“Consumer confidence moderated slightly in August for a second consecutive month,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board. “The Expectations Index slipped further into negative territory, which was offset by a moderate rise in the Present Situation Index after declining in the past three months. Consumer appraisals of current business conditions were mildly positive. Perceptions of the current labor market improved, reversing three months of moderate decline. Looking ahead, consumers were more pessimistic about business…

In the video above, I take a closer look at the technical picture for Nvidia ahead of its earnings release after the closing bell tomorrow. Nvidia shares are trading higher today after buyers leaned against the key 100-day moving average yesterday and pushed the price back to the upside.

That rebound was an encouraging sign for buyers, but the short-term technical picture remains more neutral. The price is currently trading between its 100- and 200-hour moving averages. Those two moving averages will help define the next directional move as traders position themselves ahead of the earnings announcement.

The broader market is showing a similar technical setup. The S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 are all trading higher today, but…

• Labor market consistent with full employment
• Economy growing at near-trend pace
• Sharply reduced immigration should keep labor force demand in balance
• Concerns about high prices are 'pervasive' among contacts
• Condisder disinflation the most-likely outcome based on limited additional tariffs, progress on reopening Hormuz
• Appropriate to raise rates 'soon' in the abscence of evidence of sustained disinflation

That sounds like someone who will be advocating for rate cuts.

• Prior was +5
• Shipments +11 vs +8
• Services -8 vs -3 

The services number is the lowest of the year.

• Prior month 0.628M revised higher to 0.678M
• New home sales for July 0.607M vs 0.620M
• New home sales percentage change -10.5% vs 1.6% last month

Details on inventories and prices: 

• New homes for sale totaled a seasonally adjusted 488,000 in July, up 1.9% from June but down 1.6% from July 2025.
• At the current sales pace, inventory represents a 9.6-month supply, up from 8.5 months in June and 9.2 months a year earlier. That is high.
• The increase in months’ supply indicates that inventory grew relative to the pace of new-home sales.

Sales prices:

• The median new-home sales price was $393,800 in July, down 2.3% from June and 0.9% from a year ago.
• The average sales price was $508,800, up 4.1% from June and 5.4% from July 2025.
• The divergence…

Shares of Nike are down another 4% today, falling to a fresh 12-year low.

The decline comes after Dick's Sporting Goods fretted about inventory over-allotments in its quarterly earnings, and in footwear specifically. The market is reading that as the company saying "we stocked a lot of Nike shoes and no one bought them."

At the end of the day, the shares are falling for the simple reason that people aren't buying as many Nike sneakers as they used to. The trend started in China where local brands began making their own shoes that were equally as good and at better price points. The US trade war there suddenly made consumers want to 'Buy China' and it snowballed.

From there, China began exporting its domestic brands and they have taken market…

The AUDUSD moved sharply higher last week, reaching a high of 0.71802 before correcting lower into today’s trading.

That correction found support against the rising 100-hour moving average, currently at 0.71407. Buyers leaned against that key technical level and have since pushed the price back to a new session high near 0.7160.

The successful test keeps the buyers in firm control. As long as the price remains above the rising 100-hour moving average, the technical bias stays tilted to the upside.

The next target is last week’s high at 0.71802. A break above that level would open the door toward the 0.71966 to 0.72007 area, followed by another swing area between 0.72210 and 0.72283.

What would disappoint the buyers?

A move back below the…

• Prior was +1.6% y/y
• Monthly 20-city +0.2% vs +0.2% expected
• Monthly prior +0.2%

FHFA data:

• National prices +2.3% y/y vs +2.2% prior (revised to +2.4%)
• 0.0% m/m vs +0.3% prior

The US housing market has been in a years-long slump but this is a good number despite high interest rates. Yields are a bit lower today as oil prices decline.

The USDCAD has continued its rebound from last week’s low at 1.37317, with the price moving above both its 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages. That has shifted the short-term technical bias more in favor of the buyers.

The fundamental catalyst behind the move back higher has been the breakdown in the latest U.S.-Canada trade negotiations over the weekend. Recall that yesterday U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the U.S. offered Canada significant concessions in the latest trade negotiations, but Canada continued to seek more, contributing to the breakdown in talks. Greer downplayed the broader economic impact of the dispute, saying the latest tariff measures affect only a very small portion of overall U.S.-Canada trade. He…

• Prior was +2.8%

This is based on 65.4% of responses so it will change in the final report. Previously, all 7 subsectors rose led by machinery, equipment and supplies. Sales had risen 9% y/y through June.

The US dollar is mixed and little changed to start the new trading day. USDJPY is the largest mover, rising just 0.13%. The dollar is weaker against the AUD and NZD, but stronger against the EUR, JPY, GBP, CHF and CAD.

The trading ranges are narrow across the major currency pairs:

• EURUSD: 22 pips
• USDJPY: 42 pips
• GBPUSD: 26 pips
• USDCHF: 22 pips
• USDCAD: 26 pips
• AUDUSD: 26 pips
• NZDUSD: 20 pips

The subdued price action leaves room for range extensions as North American traders enter for the day. keep that dynamic in mind for your trading. There is "room to roam". 

In today’s Kickstart video, I outline the technical bias, risks and targets for the three major currency pairs—EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. Those are three things every trader…

• S&P 500 rallies on hopes of US-Iran breakthrough ahead of Jackson Hole
• Pakistani Army Chief Munir is carrying an offer to Iran to halt blockade and lift sanctions under MoU
• Crypto news today: ETF inflows, Ethereum demand and US regulation lift sentiment
• Germany August Ifo business climate index 88.8 vs 87.2 expected
• France August consumer confidence 86 vs 87 expected
• Germany Q2 final GDP +0.3% vs +0.2% q/q prelim
• FX option expiries for 25 August 10am New York cut
• What are the main events for today?

The most important piece of news for markets came arond the middle of the session when Al Arabiya reported that Pakistan's Army Chief was carrying a proposal to Iranian leaders aimed at reducing tensions between the US and Iran. The framework could…