Market News

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

The S&P 500, and other major stock indices in general, has been under some pressure in the last week, despite no changes on the fundamental side. The extended US-Iran deadlock might be one of the reasons, but it hasn’t weakened economic activity, and oil prices have been broadly stable. It looks more like a pullback from overstretched levels due to lack of bullish catalysts.

Just an hour ago, we got a bullish catalyst as Pakistan's Chief of Army, Asim Munir, is reportedly carrying a proposal to Iranian leaders aimed at reducing tensions between US and Iran, according to Al Arabiya. The proposal is said to include an offer to halt the economic siege on…

US Stocks Close Mixed as Investors Digest Updates – Nasdaq down 0.76%

US stock markets finished mixed in trading yesterday as investors continued to digest the latest developments in the Middle East, with the Trump administration announcing further sanctions on countries trading with Iran. The ongoing geopolitical uncertainty continued to keep investors cautious, with the Dow Jones managing to gain 0.26% to close at 53,417, while the S&P 500 fell 0.28% to 7,652 and the Nasdaq dropped 0.76% to 25,980.

US Treasury yields moved lower following another report suggesting the Treasury Department could increase its bond buybacks further. The 2-year yield edged 0.4 basis points lower to 4.231%, while the 10-year yield fell 3.8 basis points…

IC – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 25 August 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

Monday’s U.S. session was driven more by geopolitical and policy headlines than by economic data. The announcement of stronger U.S. economic pressure on Iran initially increased uncertainty, but the absence of immediate secondary sanctions helped oil prices pull back. At the same time, falling Treasury yields and safe-haven demand supported gold, while the dollar gained modestly. U.S. equities remained cautious ahead of Nvidia earnings, the July PCE inflation report and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech later in the week.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Tuesday’s Asian session looks more driven by global risk sentiment and geopolitics than…

Pakistan's Chief of Army, Asim Munir, is reportedly carrying a proposal to Iranian leaders aimed at reducing tensions between US and Iran, according to Al Arabiya. The proposal is said to include an offer to halt the economic siege on Iran and gradually lift sanctions under the framework of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), which Pakistan has been promoting as part of its mediation efforts between the two sides.

The development comes as Munir concluded a high-level visit to Tehran alongside Pakistan's Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi. According to Iran's ISNA news agency, Pakistani officials described the visit as fruitful, with the outcome of the discussions expected to become clearer soon. Pakistani and Iranian officials…

• Prior was 86.6
• Current conditions 88.5 vs 87.0 expected
• Prior 86.5
• Expectations 89.1 vs 87.5 expected
• Prior 86.7

German business sentiment improved notably in August, with the Business Climate Index rising to 88.8, well above the 87.2forecast and up from 86.6 in July. The report showed a broad-based improvement in both current conditions and future expectations, pointing to strengthening after several months of gradual stabilization.

The Current Conditions Index climbed to 88.5, beating expectations of 87.0 and improving from 86.5 previously. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index jumped to 89.1, significantly above the 87.5 forecast and up from 86.7 in July, indicating that firms have become more optimistic about the economic outlook over the next…

• Prior +0.4%
• GDP Y/Y +1.0% vs +0.9% prelim
• Prior +0.7%
• Full report here

Germany’s economy expanded by 0.3% q/q in the second quarter of 2026, exceeding the preliminary estimate of 0.2%. On an annual basis, GDP grew 1.0% highlighting a continued recovery in economic activity.

Destatis said the German economy is maintaining the growth momentum seen at the beginning of the year, with exports once again serving as the primary engine of growth.

The strongest contribution to growth came from external demand. Exports of goods and services increased 2.0% from the previous quarter, led by a 2.6% rise in goods exports, while services exports remained unchanged. Imports also rose, though at a slower pace, increasing 1.5% q/q.

The upward revision to GDP was…

• Prior was 86
• Full report here

French consumer confidence remained unchanged in August, with the headline indicator holding at 86. Confidence remains significantly below its long-term average of 100.

Households look more focused on saving rather than spending, reflecting persistent concerns about the economic outlook and employment prospects. In fact, there was further improvement in the savings climate. The indicator measuring whether households consider it a good time to save increased by two points, following a three-point rise in July, reaching a new record high.

French households continue to build precautionary savings despite signs of stability in their personal finances. In contrast to the strong savings trend, households became…

Key crypto news for traders and investors today

• US spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs attracted about $2.6 billion combined during the August 17-21 week, their strongest week since October 2025.

• Ethereum demand came from two directions: nearly $700 million entered spot ETH ETFs, while BitMine disclosed another 32,447 ETH purchase.

• US regulators are moving toward clearer crypto rules, but the main market-structure legislation sought by the industry remains stalled in the Senate.

• Solana has started reducing its slot time, while Zcash is drawing attention around Grayscale's proposed ETF conversion and unusually heavy derivatives activity.

• Some of the recent market acceleration came from short liquidations, which should not be confused with lasting…

EUR/USD

• 1.1725 (EUR 729.21 mn)
• 1.1680 (EUR 799.65 mn)
• 1.1650 (EUR 632.35 mn)

USD/JPY

• 159.00 (US$ 345.34 mn)

USD/CHF

• 0.8020 (US$ 309.47 mn)

USD/CAD

• 1.4020 (US$ 530.85 mn)
• 1.3755 (US$ 602.32 mn)

AUD/USD

• 0.7130 (AUD 874.19 mn)

WHAT ARE OPTION EXPIRIES?

The FX option expiration price levels refer to the strike prices where option contracts are set to expire. These levels include both calls and puts.

When you see "EUR/USD at 1.1600 for €4 billion" it means there is a total of €4 billion worth of options (calls + puts combined) that have a strike price of 1.1600 and are expiring at that specific time (the "New York Cut" at 10:00 AM ET).

Traders watch these levels because they often act as a "magnet" for the price. For example, if there's nothing happening in…