Market News

• Prior was 86
• Full report here

French consumer confidence remained unchanged in August, with the headline indicator holding at 86. Confidence remains significantly below its long-term average of 100.

Households look more focused on saving rather than spending, reflecting persistent concerns about the economic outlook and employment prospects. In fact, there was further improvement in the savings climate. The indicator measuring whether households consider it a good time to save increased by two points, following a three-point rise in July, reaching a new record high.

French households continue to build precautionary savings despite signs of stability in their personal finances. In contrast to the strong savings trend, households became…

Key crypto news for traders and investors today

• US spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs attracted about $2.6 billion combined during the August 17-21 week, their strongest week since October 2025.

• Ethereum demand came from two directions: nearly $700 million entered spot ETH ETFs, while BitMine disclosed another 32,447 ETH purchase.

• US regulators are moving toward clearer crypto rules, but the main market-structure legislation sought by the industry remains stalled in the Senate.

• Solana has started reducing its slot time, while Zcash is drawing attention around Grayscale's proposed ETF conversion and unusually heavy derivatives activity.

• Some of the recent market acceleration came from short liquidations, which should not be confused with lasting…

EUR/USD

• 1.1725 (EUR 729.21 mn)
• 1.1680 (EUR 799.65 mn)
• 1.1650 (EUR 632.35 mn)

USD/JPY

• 159.00 (US$ 345.34 mn)

USD/CHF

• 0.8020 (US$ 309.47 mn)

USD/CAD

• 1.4020 (US$ 530.85 mn)
• 1.3755 (US$ 602.32 mn)

AUD/USD

• 0.7130 (AUD 874.19 mn)

WHAT ARE OPTION EXPIRIES?

The FX option expiration price levels refer to the strike prices where option contracts are set to expire. These levels include both calls and puts.

When you see "EUR/USD at 1.1600 for €4 billion" it means there is a total of €4 billion worth of options (calls + puts combined) that have a strike price of 1.1600 and are expiring at that specific time (the "New York Cut" at 10:00 AM ET).

Traders watch these levels because they often act as a "magnet" for the price. For example, if there's nothing happening in…

BTC continues to benefit from the weak USD and poor sentiment towards bonds. 

Earlier:

• Is Bitcoin at $77k preparing for another breakout? This BTCUSD analysis shows a a potential bull flag pointing to $84K-$86K
• Bitcoin Bull Flag Analysis: See this video after the $79,460 surge

• Bitcoin jumps above US$80K for the first time in 3 months
• Japan to weigh tax incentives for retail JGB investors, Katayama says
• Gold has been slammed down $50 and oil has jumped
• Oil is still quietly crossing Hormuz, TotalEnergies CEO says
• RBA minutes reveal live debate over a pre-emptive August hike
• China leans hardest against yuan gains in six months, AUD softens
• Citi lifts near-term gold target to $4,800, JPMorgan flags $5k
• Bank of Korea rate call a coin toss as economists split on August hike
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.7852 (vs. estimate at 6.7219)
• Asian equites shunted lower at opening, South Korea and Japan both down
• Gold holds near three-month high as debasement trade returns
• Legendary investor Druckenmiller says Treasury is…

Katayama's comments on retail JGB incentives point to a policy avenue aimed at broadening the domestic investor base for government debt at a time when long and super-long yields have been under sustained upward pressure, though any tax reform would need to clear discussions with the ruling party before taking shape. Her emphasis on balancing fiscal sustainability with growth, and on communicating that stance to markets, suggests the ministry is conscious of how the FY2027 budget process itself could become a fresh source of yield volatility given the government's expansionary fiscal leanings. The reiterated stance on Hormuz adds little new to the geopolitical picture but keeps Tokyo aligned with the broader diplomatic push for…

Pouyanne's comments offer a rare on-the-ground account of how physical crude flows are actually adapting to the Hormuz risk premium, suggesting the market has found a working, if quiet, mechanism for moving oil out of the Gulf even as headline benchmarks price in disruption. The scale of the producer discount, as much as $30 a barrel below Brent, points to real desperation among sellers rather than a temporary dislocation, which could keep a lid on how far Brent itself can run even amid ongoing sanctions and shipping risk. The much steeper economics for refined products, where transport costs are effectively prohibitive, helps explain the unusual split Pouyanne describes between a bearish crude market and a bullish products market, a…

Volatility, not narrative, at this stage at least. 

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here on this.

• injects 386bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos at 1.4% (unchanged rate)

ADDED: Check this out on today's setting:

• China leans hardest against yuan gains in six months, AUD softens

Citi's upgrade and JPMorgan's near-term trading range both point to a market still comfortable adding to gold exposure even after this year's sharp rally, with the disagreement really centred on timing rather than direction. JPMorgan's framing of PCE and Jackson Hole as the key swing factors puts real weight on this week's data, since a hot inflation print would likely trigger a retest of the 200-day moving average while a cooler outcome combined with a market unconvinced by Warsh's messaging could see gold approaching $5,000 within days rather than months. The reference to January's $1,100 one-month move underscores how quickly sentiment can shift in this market, and the fact that gold has stayed firm despite a soft macro backdrop over…

The scale of this deviation stands out because it comes against a backdrop of broad dollar softness, with the index still hovering near three-month lows on fiscal and debt sustainability concerns. Under normal conditions a weak dollar would be expected to pull USD/CNY lower more freely, so the unusually wide gap suggests the PBOC is working harder than usual to offset that external pull rather than reacting to any fresh domestic weakness.

This fits a pattern seen repeatedly since February, where similarly large deviations have consistently been read by analysts as an attempt to slow the pace of appreciation rather than reverse its direction, given the yuan's broader multi-year highs and the currency's roughly 4% year-to-date gain.

The…

The minutes confirm the hold was a genuine deliberation rather than a formality, with the board explicitly weighing a pre-emptive 25 basis point hike against the case that policy already sits at the top of neutral rate estimates and is working as intended. The staff's own risk assessment, that risks to the inflation forecast are skewed to the upside, keeps a live tightening bias in play even with rates on hold, meaning upcoming data, particularly on the labour market, housing and Middle East-driven cost pass-through, carries outsized weight for the next decision. The currency implications look modest for now given the RBA noted the trade-weighted index sits close to its long-run equilibrium and isn't providing additional policy…