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The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here on this.
more to come
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.Gold sitting almost unchanged near $4,400 reflects a market unwilling to commit ahead of two closely watched inflation prints, rather than any strong directional conviction. The more interesting signal is the gap between a Reuters poll of economists, which points to the Fed holding rates steady through year end, and the CME FedWatch Tool, which still assigns a 60% probability to a hike this month, a divergence that leaves plenty of room for a sharp repricing once the data lands.
Gold's safe haven bid has been a relatively muted part of this year's price action given how far the metal has already run on other drivers, so today's US-Iran headlines and a likely ECB hike are likely to matter more for the dollar and for rate expectations than…
What the September futures rollover means for ES and NQ traders
Every quarter, traders in the E-mini S&P 500 (ES) and E-mini Nasdaq-100 (NQ) go through a ritual that catches out newer participants more often than it should: the futures rollover. With the next quarterly expiry falling on the third Friday of September, this is a good moment to explain what is actually happening, and why it matters even if you never intend to hold a contract into expiry.
Why futures expire at all
Unlike a stock, which exists indefinitely, a futures contract is a promise to buy or sell an underlying asset at a set price on a set date. Index futures like ES and NQ follow a quarterly cycle: March, June, September and December, often labeled H, M, U and Z after…
With ING pencilling in a 25 basis point hike across every scenario it considers, today's meeting is likely to be less about the rate decision itself and more about the accompanying language and projections. The spread ING lays out between its most dovish and most hawkish outcomes, EUR/USD ranging from 1.150 to 1.168 and the 10 year Bund yield from 3.30% to 3.45%, points to meaningful two way risk around the press conference rather than the decision itself. Given the euro and Bund currently sit close to the middle of that range, at 1.161 and 3.40% respectively, positioning into the announcement looks reasonably balanced, leaving room for a sharp move once the tone of the guidance becomes clear.
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Earlier:
Renewed attention on Pickaxe Mountain keeps the tail risk of a significant escalation in play, since a strike on a site of this scale would go well beyond the tanker and infrastructure attacks that have driven oil higher in recent days. The site's granite construction and the acknowledgment that current US bunker busting weapons may not be capable of destroying it suggests any strike option is not imminent, which should limit near term market reaction. Still, the disclosure that the Pentagon is actively developing a next generation penetrator weapon, alongside a mysterious emergency test program, signals that a decisive move against the site remains on the table as a medium term possibility, which is likely to keep a geopolitical risk…
A credible signal that the Iran conflict could extend well beyond the midterms, rather than resolve quickly as Trump has publicly suggested, argues against pricing in a near term de-escalation for oil ($120 Brent risk). Extended troop deployments into 2027 and talk of a long term economic siege point toward a structurally elevated risk premium rather than a temporary spike, reinforcing the more cautious forecasts already coming from banks this week. Traders weighing Trump's public timeline against reporting on internal White House discussions may increasingly discount the president's own comments as a market signal, with the blockade and sanctions strategy treated as the more durable base case for supply disruption.
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Behind closed…
A briefing framed around building China into a financial power carries some read through for currency, rates and equity market participants, particularly given the involvement of officials spanning monetary policy, banking and insurance regulation, securities oversight and foreign exchange administration. Comments touching on capital account policy, renminbi internationalisation or capital market reform would be the most market sensitive elements to watch for, though the specific content of the briefing is not yet known. As the briefing falls in the mid afternoon in China but the very early hours in the US and Europe, any headlines are likely to reach Western desks via wire services well before those markets open.
--- Beijing is putting…
The simultaneous rise in yields, oil and equity losses (again ...) points to a market pricing in sticky inflation rather than a temporary shock. Higher energy costs feed directly into headline inflation, which in turn keeps pressure on the Federal Reserve to consider further tightening even as growth risks build. The failure of the tripled Treasury buyback to bring yields down is arguably the more telling signal, since it suggests investors are demanding compensation for fiscal and supply concerns that a liquidity operation cannot fix. With the Fed's meeting a week away, traders are likely to stay defensive into the data, and any further upside surprise on inflation could extend the equity slide and keep yields elevated.
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Markets are…
HSBC's upgrade reinforces a broader analyst consensus that supply risk remains skewed to the upside while the Strait of Hormuz stays only partially open. With transit volumes still running at roughly 30 percent of pre conflict levels, traders are likely to keep pricing in a persistent risk premium rather than a quick return to normal flows. The bank's own scenario split, a possible run toward $120 a barrel if diplomacy fails against a slide into the $70s if a ceasefire holds, gives the market a wide band to trade around headlines. Growing reliance on Saudi and UAE bypass pipelines also softens the read through of any single Hormuz incident, since total Gulf export capacity is less concentrated on the strait than before the conflict.…
Via oilprice.com:
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Expectations I had seen centred on: