Market News

The ECB looks all but certain to raise interest rates by 25 bps today, taking the deposit facility rate to 2.50%. So barring a major surprise, the rate decision itself is not where the real market interest lies.

Instead, the bigger question is what comes next.

With oil prices running b ack up to $100 and bond yields pushing higher, there is a heated debate on whether today's move is going to be the final rate hike of the tightening cycle. As such, that puts ECB president Lagarde's guidance firmly in focus.

Ahead of the decision, here is what some of the major banks and market analysts are expecting from the ECB.

Lagarde is unlikely to provide markets with a clear signal

One area where analysts broadly agree is that Lagarde is unlikely to…

• Germany August final CPI +2.9% vs +2.9% y/y prelim
• Prior +2.8%
• Germany August final HICP +2.9% vs +2.9% y/y prelim
• Prior +2.8%
• Germany August final core CPI +2.4% vs +2.4% y/y prelim
• Prior +2.4%

The breakdownThere are no changes to the preliminary data as headline annual inflation in Germany nudges up in August. That comes as the energy shock keeps inflation pressures more elevated.

The details show that energy price inflation increased by 10.5% year-on-year, marking the strongest reading in more than three years. And that is a notable jump from the 8.3% estimate in July.

Besides that, core annual inflation is seen holding steady at 2.4%. So, that is at least a positive as services inflation is seen easing to 2.8% with food price inflation also…

There are just a couple of expiry levels to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.

That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1600 and 1.1650 levels. The current spot price is effectively sitting in between two very large strikes, so that creates a potentially important 1.1600–1.1650 expiry zone. One which could see hedging-related flows could contribute to more two-way or more choppy price action into the cut.

But all else being equal, the expiries can also act as bookends in keeping price action more limited within the range for the session ahead. That until we get to the ECB decision and Lagarde press conference later in the day.

In terms of technical significance, the expiries do tie in slightly with the 200-day moving average at…

Just last week, I highlighted the tectonic shift taking place in the global bond market in arguing that markets may have to get used to an era of structurally higher yields. And yesterday's announcement from the US Treasury offers another interesting test of that argument.

The Treasury said that it will buy back as much as $6 billion of 10-to-20-year government bonds, tripling the previous $2 billion size.

Now on the surface, that should be supportive for bonds. The theory is that Treasury buying removes older securities from the market, helping with liquidity while creating demand and pushing down yields.

But instead, we're continuing to see 10-year Treasury yields hold near 4.85%, its highest since 2023. So, what gives?

Why didn't the…

With plenty happening in broader markets at the moment, cryptocurrencies definitely have plenty to focus on in September.

Treasury yields are surging. Oil is printing above $100 again. Inflation risks are back in focus, just as the Fed will be meeting next week.

However, one of the most important catalysts for Bitcoin, Ethereum and the broader crypto market may come from Washington instead.

The CLARITY Act (Digital Asset Market Clarity Act), a major piece of US crypto regulation aimed at establishing clearer rules for digital assets, faces a crucial procedural vote at the Senate on 15 September.

This vote will determine whether lawmakers can move forward with debating the legislation, with 60 votes needed to clear the cloture hurdle.

While not…

• Earnings season is turning more defensive, but the weakness is not everywhere
• Bank of Korea links Kospi's wild swings to leverage both at home and abroad
• Korea Exchange to launch real time trading through to 8pm from September 14
• Trump ties $5,000 payment promise to a full Republican midterm sweep
• Weak yen, oil costs and food prices in focus as BOJ's Masu talks hikes
• What the September futures rollover means for traders, ES and NQ as examples
• Gold steady near $4,400 as traders brace for US inflation data
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.7766 (vs. estimate at 6.7074)
• Euro braces for ECB tone today as ING sees a 25bp hike either way
• Construction surges at suspected Iran nuclear site as US eyes "deep strikes" (cough ...)
• Trump aides…

For anyone trading Korean equities, this is a genuine expansion of the trading day rather than a cosmetic change, since real time continuous matching replaces a system that only cleared orders every 10 minutes. That should meaningfully improve price discovery after the regular 3:30pm close, letting traders react immediately to earnings, corporate actions or global headlines that land during the new window rather than waiting for the next 10 minute batch or the following day's open.

The exclusion of ETFs and ETNs from the initial rollout is worth flagging for anyone using those instruments to hedge or gain sector exposure, since that liquidity will remain confined to the regular session for now.

The competitive backdrop also matters:…

The Bank of Korea drawing an explicit line between Kospi's extreme volatility and offshore leveraged positioning in Samsung and SK Hynix highlights a risk that sits largely outside Korean regulators' direct reach, since the derivatives in question are traded overseas. That is a meaningfully different problem from the domestic leveraged ETF boom that authorities have already moved to curb, and suggests further scrutiny or disclosure requirements could follow, though the central bank has stopped short of proposing specific measures so far. Given how concentrated Kospi already is in these two names, any tightening of oversight on either the domestic or offshore leverage side is likely to be watched closely for its potential to dampen the…

investingLive.com has prepared for you stock investors a U.S. earnings sentiment through September 9, 2026

Recent U.S. earnings reactions suggest investors are becoming less forgiving. Nearly half the stocks in the latest completed group rose, yet several influential disappointments pulled the overall picture lower. Technology and consumer shares showed particular weakness, while meaningful winners remained. The evidence points to a selective, increasingly defensive market.

Key takeaways from the latest earnings reactions

• Winners still exist: About 48% of stocks in the September 9 completed earnings-reaction group advanced.

• Large declines matter: The overall reaction was approximately -2.7% when larger companies carried more influence.

• Sector…

A pledge of this scale, if it were ever legislated, would represent a meaningful debt expansion at a moment when concerns about the deficit and Treasury issuance are already weighing on bond markets. For now, the promise is conditional on a Republican sweep in November and carries no funding mechanism or legislative pathway, so it is unlikely to move markets in the near term.

The more relevant read for traders may be what it signals about the administration's political strategy heading into the midterms, using direct payments as a response to public concern over the cost of living, rather than any immediate fiscal or monetary policy implication.

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Earlier:

• Bond yields hit highest since 2023 as stocks fall, oil tops $100 and buyback misfires

Masu's comments add to a hawkish tilt already building among BOJ board members ahead of the September meeting, reinforcing market expectations that a hike is likely, indeed abasically set in stone. His specific focus on the weak yen having a bigger inflation impact than in the past, alongside concern about producer prices feeding through to consumer inflation more than historically, gives the yen some support on the margin, since it signals the board is not just reacting to headline energy costs but building a broader case for policy normalisation.

With the policy rate already described as approaching the estimated neutral range, the more market sensitive signal here may be Masu's comment that the BOJ could be forced to raise rates…