Market News

The Canadian dollar is the G10 laggard today but its hardly collapsing and that might be a surprise given the 'trade war' rhetoric following the late-Friday collapse of talks with the USA.

USD/CAD is up 76 pips to 1.3840, or 0.55%. 

It's a nice move but it doesn't even get us back to Wednesday's opening levels and I'd argue that a good chunk of today's rise is due to the 1.8% decline in oil prices.

So why doesn't the market move match the rhetoric?

Simply put, not that much was at stake in terms of the latest US tariffs. The measures apply a 50% tariff rate on imports to the US but they only apply on about 5% of Canadian exports to that country. Put differently, more than 80% of of exports will remain duty free under USMCA…

The largest decreases were in chemical and fabricated metal product subsectors.

The new trading week is underway with the US dollar is modestly higher with the USDCAD moving up the most with a gain of 0.57% after talks with Canada on a trade agreement fell apart. 

As a review, the U.S.-Canada trade talks broke down late Friday, reversing optimism that the two sides were close to a framework agreement.

• The U.S. moved ahead with 50% tariffs on roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods.
• Canada responded with dollar-for-dollar retaliatory tariffs, set to begin September 8.
• Disagreements over steel, aluminum, autos and lumber helped derail the negotiations.
• Both sides blamed the other for introducing unacceptable last-minute demands.
• No new talks are currently scheduled.
• The Canadian dollar weakened on the news, pushing…

• Gold remains supported into Jackson Hole event after US Treasury ignited 'debasement' trades
• PrimeXBT Guide to Trading Costs: Spreads, Fees, and Swap-Free Trading
• This Nasdaq futures analysis shows how to trade Nasdaq today
• The Indian rupee is set to revisit record lows as US-Iran deadlock extends, tensions rise
• ECB policymaker Cipollone says inflation is far from the ECB adverse and severe scenarios
• Bitcoin Bull Flag Analysis: See this video after the $79,460 surge
• The Canadian dollar falls across the board as trade talks collapse and US 50% tariffs take effect
• Market outlook for the week of 24th-28th August
• FX option expiries for 24 August 10am New York cut
• What are the main events for today?
• RBA minutes due Tuesday to detail hike-versus-hold…

• Full article here

According to CNBC, the US Treasury is considering using its Treasury General Account (TGA), the government's cash account at the Federal Reserve, currently holding nearly $1 trillion, to help finance its recently announced purchases of longer-dated Treasury bonds.

Markets initially assumed the Treasury would fund the bond-buying program by issuing more short-term bills, consistent with Treasury Secretary Bessent's description of the operation as a "Treasury Twist". However, senior Treasury officials indicated that the TGA is also available as a funding source and did not rule out using it.

Using the TGA would significantly increase the Treasury's ability to influence long-term yields because the funds are already available…

The latest U.S. sector-rotation picture through the August 21 close shows Industrials moving into Cooling Off, joining Technology, Consumer Discretionary and Utilities. Energy and Healthcare remain in Heating Up, while Consumer Staples is still in Early Accumulation. The message is not that Industrials must fall, but that market leadership is narrowing and investors are becoming more selective.

Key takeaways

• Important new change: Industrials have moved into the Cooling Off phase.
• Relatively stronger sectors: Energy and Healthcare remain in Heating Up.
• Developing opportunity: Materials are improving, but the evidence is not yet broad enough to confirm a transition.
• Defensive watch: Consumer Staples remain in Early Accumulation, although…

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

Gold surged on Wednesday after the US Treasury announced that it will at least double the size of its liquidity-support buyback operations for longer-dated Treasury securities, increasing the maximum purchase from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation.

US Treasury Secretary Bessent then said that part of the operation was sending a message to the market that yields do not reflect underlying fundamentals and added that the buyback could be more than $4 billion depending on conditions.

The Treasury intervention in the market had a QE-like effect by lowering long-term yields and easing financial conditions, although it’s not technically QE. The US…

●         Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 0.50%, Shanghai Composite down 0.71% Hang Seng down 2.14% ASX up 0.50%

●        Commodities : Gold at $4,689.89 (0.23%) Silver at $68.905 (-0.90%), Brent Oil at 91.31 (-1.47%), WTI Oil at 85.64 (-1.63%)

●        Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.709, UK 10-year yield at 5.0666, Germany 10-year yield at 3.2564

●        (USD)      Retail Sales m/m   0.4% to 0.6%   expected

 Stock futures edged lower Sunday night as investors looked to rebound from a difficult week marked by a sharp rise in Treasury yields. Dow Jones futures fell 44 points, or 0.1%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures declined 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively.

Last week,…

IC – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 24 August 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Asian markets were cautious, with investors focused on potential new U.S. sanctions on Iran, Strait of Hormuz supply risks, and uncertainty around U.S. monetary and trade policy. Oil fell around 1.5%, while the U.S. dollar remained near multi-month lows, supporting gold, which continued its strong August rally. The CAD weakened amid renewed U.S.–Canada trade tensions, while the AUD and NZD remained relatively firm.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

The European session could remain relatively subdued because Monday’s scheduled macro calendar is light. The bigger drivers are U.S. sanctions on Iran, Treasury yields, dollar weakness and…

Trading costs can have a meaningful impact on performance, particularly for active traders and those holding positions over longer periods. Understanding where those costs come from, and how they can be reduced, is therefore an important part of choosing the right trading conditions and a broker that offers them. 

Understanding the True Cost of Trading

Three main components determine what a position costs: the spread paid on entry, any commission charged, and the overnight fee if the position remains open past the daily rollover time.

For a day trader, the spread and any applicable commissions may account for almost the entire cost, since nothing remains open overnight. For a swing or position trader holding across days or weeks, overnight…

IC – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 24 August 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

U.S. markets ended the week with strong economic activity but continued pressure from rising Treasury yields and fiscal concerns. The stronger U.S. services PMI supported the outlook for the economy, while concerns over government debt and Treasury buybacks weighed on the USD. Gold and Bitcoin rallied strongly as investors sought alternative assets, while oil prices remained elevated amid geopolitical tensions. U.S. equities recovered on Friday but remained volatile as higher yields continued to pressure stocks.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Monday’s Asian session is likely to be driven more by positioning and geopolitical/central-bank…