Market News

Nasdaq futures test 29,120 support: Bounce setup or another leg lower?

Nasdaq-100 E-mini futures remain moderately bearish after breaking the important 29,295-29,300 support area, but the decline is now meeting buyers around 29,115-29,125. A recovery above 29,210 could extend toward 29,240-29,300. Bearish continuation requires sustained trade below 29,115, followed by failed attempts to recover.

Key takeaways from today’s Nasdaq futures analysis

• Market bias: The broader structure remains bearish, with lower major highs and price below the former 29,295-29,300 support area.

• Critical support: Buyers have defended 29,115-29,125 twice, making this a poor area for traders to chase an unconfirmed short.

• First recovery test: Nasdaq futures need to…

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

USD:

The US dollar weakened across the board last week after the US Treasury announced that it will at least double the size of its liquidity-support buyback operations for longer-dated Treasury securities, increasing the maximum purchase from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation.

US Treasury Secretary Bessent then said that part of the operation is sending a message to the market that yields do not reflect underlying fundamentals and added that the buyback could be more than $4 billion depending on conditions.

The Treasury intervention in the market had a QE-like effect by lowering long-term yields and easing financial…

US Stocks Rise into Weekend – Dow up 1%

US stocks finished higher in trading on Friday, although the gains were not enough to prevent the major indices from closing the week lower as investors continued to digest rising Treasury yields and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. The Dow Jones gained 0.98% to close at 53,277, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both added 0.43%, finishing at 7,674 and 26,180, respectively.

The move higher in equities came despite another rise in US Treasury yields, with stronger services data helping to push yields higher across the curve. The 2-year yield rose 4.8 basis points to 4.236%, while the 10-year yield added 3.0 basis points to 4.734%. The continued rise in longer-dated yields remains an important theme…

ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone said that the risk of a stagflationary environment remains low despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. He added that monetary policy needs to remain "well calibrated" as policymakers continue to assess incoming economic data. He also noted that inflation remains far from the ECB adverse and severe scenarios.

Cipollone stressed that there are currently no signs pointing to a stagflation scenario. He added that the risk of stagnation accompanied by a sharp rise in prices is "rather remote".

The comments suggest that he's broadly comfortable with the current inflation outlook and doesn't see a material threat of a renewed inflation shock undermining growth prospects. The ECB commentary has been…

Bitcoin bull flag analysis: How a regression channel can guide BTC after the $79,460 surge

Bitcoin is consolidating after surging approximately 26% in four days to $79,460. On the hourly BTCUSD chart, the regression channel still frames this pause as a potential bull flag rather than a confirmed reversal. The bullish scenario remains constructive, but the next breakout needs confirmation before traders assume a move toward $84,000-$86,000.

Key takeaways for Bitcoin traders

• Market structure: Bitcoin’s pullback looks more like consolidation after a major rally than an established bearish reversal.
• Simple guidance: The regression channel helps identify the average path of the consolidation and its likely outer boundaries.
• Short-term bias: Price…

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

USD:

The US dollar weakened across the board last week after the US Treasury announced that it will at least double the size of its liquidity-support buyback operations for longer-dated Treasury securities, increasing the maximum purchase from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation.

US Treasury Secretary Bessent then said that part of the operation is sending a message to the market that yields do not reflect underlying fundamentals and added that the buyback could be more than $4 billion depending on conditions.

The Treasury intervention in the market had a QE-like effect by lowering long-term yields and easing financial…

EUR/USD

• 1.1680 (EUR 1.00 bn)
• 1.1640 (EUR 1.33 bn)

USD/JPY

• 159.00 (US$ 350.12 mn)
• 157.85 (US$ 542.01 mn)

GBP/USD

• 1.3530 (GBP 282.33 mn)

USD/CHF

• 0.8100 (US$ 300.00 mn)
• 0.8000 (US$ 350.00 mn)

USD/CAD

• 1.3935 (US$ 304.46 mn)
• 1.3855 (US$ 269.60 mn)
• 1.3800 (US$ 230.00 mn)

AUD/USD

• 0.7120 (AUD 604.23 mn)

EUR/GBP

• 0.8570 (EUR 100.35 mn)

WHAT ARE OPTION EXPIRIES?

The FX option expiration price levels refer to the strike prices where option contracts are set to expire. These levels include both calls and puts.

When you see "EUR/USD at 1.1600 for €4 billion" it means there is a total of €4 billion worth of options (calls + puts combined) that have a strike price of 1.1600 and are expiring at that specific time (the "New York Cut" at 10:00 AM ET).

Traders watch these levels…

The week starts off slow with no major economic events for the FX market scheduled for Monday. The following day Japan will release the BoJ core CPI y/y, while the U.S. will publish the CB consumer confidence and new home sales data.

Wednesday will bring Australia's CPI data and in the U.S., the focus will shift to the core PCE price index m/m, preliminary GDP q/q, and durable goods orders m/m. The U.S. data releases will continue Thursday with the unemployment claims and the day will also mark the start of the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium.

On Friday, Japan will release the Tokyo core CPI y/y, while Canada will publish GDP m/m. Attention will then turn to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who is scheduled to speak at Jackson Hole. Another…

AUD/USD and rate-sensitive Australian bonds are likely to react most to any signal in the minutes about how close the Board came to hiking in August, given Governor Bullock has already confirmed both options were actively discussed. Hauser's comments last week, explicitly flagging upside inflation risks and warning further hikes remain possible, have already primed the market for a hawkish read, meaning the minutes carry asymmetric risk: a genuinely hawkish tone confirms positioning already built, while anything perceived as dovish could trigger a sharper unwind in AUD longs. Elevated oil prices tied to the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruption represent a distinct upside inflation risk the Board is watching alongside domestic…

• ICYMI - India gold imports double in July as WGC flags demand recovery
• ING says fiscal credibility fears drive gold back to above $4,600 an ounce
• Weekend Hormuz traffic thins to fewer than 20 vessels, Kpler data shows
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.7841 (vs. estimate at 6.7248)
• ICYMI: Goldman says options demand could push gold past $4,900 forecast
• Gold hits a 3 month above $4640 ... then get slammed $50 lower under $4600
• NZ main opposition party pledges to restore RBNZ dual mandate on employment if elected
• Trump made 1,000-plus stock trades in June amid Iran war, tariff fights
• Oil eases on Globex after weekend Iran escalation and sanctions threats
• Trump says military is "ultimate intervention" for bond market turmoil
• New Zealand…