Market News

• ICYMI - India gold imports double in July as WGC flags demand recovery
• ING says fiscal credibility fears drive gold back to above $4,600 an ounce
• Weekend Hormuz traffic thins to fewer than 20 vessels, Kpler data shows
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.7841 (vs. estimate at 6.7248)
• ICYMI: Goldman says options demand could push gold past $4,900 forecast
• Gold hits a 3 month above $4640 ... then get slammed $50 lower under $4600
• NZ main opposition party pledges to restore RBNZ dual mandate on employment if elected
• Trump made 1,000-plus stock trades in June amid Iran war, tariff fights
• Oil eases on Globex after weekend Iran escalation and sanctions threats
• Trump says military is "ultimate intervention" for bond market turmoil
• New Zealand…

The doubling in India's gold import value points to a meaningful pickup in physical demand from the world's second-largest gold consumer, which should be read alongside rather than in isolation from the broader bullion rally driven by Fed rate expectations and US fiscal concerns already flagged elsewhere this week. A firmer India print ahead of the festive season adds a structural demand layer beneath the options-driven and macro-driven moves already at work in gold, potentially reinforcing support on pullbacks if seasonal buying continues to build. The narrowing but still-present discount of Indian domestic prices to landed cost suggests local supply, including recycled old gold, remains ample enough to keep price transmission orderly…

ING's framing ties gold's advance directly to the fiscal and currency debasement narrative building around expanded Treasury buybacks, which links this move to the same bond market strain that has already produced elevated Treasury yields and Trump's own confusing military intervention (Trump says military is "ultimate intervention" for bond market turmoil ) remark last week.

• Bessent's panic move risks reigniting rate hike bets, hands Fed hawks new ammunition
• A radical Bessent, panicking with big Treasury bond buyback move, craters the dollar

If Treasury buybacks continue to expand as a tool to manage yields, the debasement concern ING flags could keep gold well supported even without fresh geopolitical catalysts, since it targets a…

The weekend's sub-20 vessel count is a sharp step down even by the standards of a strait already operating under dual blockade, and it lands the same day Bessent is due to unveil the toughest US sanctions yet on Iran and hours after Rezaei threatened to halt all Gulf oil exports entirely. Traders should weigh the headline transit figure against last week's reporting that more than 80% of liquid cargo through the strait over a prior two week period either used the Omani route or moved with transponders switched off, and that a US-organised corridor along Oman's coast has helped move roughly 10 million barrels a day, together with a cumulative total of more than 660 million barrels shipped through the strait since early May. That gap…

Westpac's analysis suggests markets should not assume an automatic policy shift from a reinstated employment mandate, since its practical effect depends heavily on the nature of the shocks the economy faces rather than the mandate wording itself. In a typical demand-driven cycle, inflation and employment move together, meaning the dual mandate would change little about how the RBNZ sets rates. The more relevant scenario for current conditions is a supply shock, such as an oil price spike, where inflation and the labour market diverge, and an employment mandate could give the MPC room to tolerate above-target inflation for longer provided it retains confidence inflation will eventually return to target. Any NZD or rates market reaction to…

No fresh news apart from what has been covered. 

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here on this.

• injects 340bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos at 1.4% (unchanged rate)

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Gold's volatile trading in Asia today could be reflective of the options dynamic Goldman describes, where dealer hedging near key strike levels can turn moves into self-reinforcing rallies or sell-offs regardless of the underlying fundamental driver. With bullion having advanced toward $4,600 largely on fading expectations of a September Fed hike, any data surprise reviving those hike bets carries outsized potential to trigger a sharper-than-usual pullback as dealers unwind hedges. Conversely, continued softness in US data, alongside a supportive geopolitical backdrop including the ongoing Iran standoff and sanctions rollout, could keep Western investor and central bank demand strong enough to test the option strikes Goldman flags as…

The scale of trading activity revives longstanding market concerns about the overlap between presidential statements that move prices, such as tariff pause announcements or social media posts naming individual companies, and personal stock positions disclosed only after a lag under existing reporting rules. Traders have previously flagged apparent timing overlaps between tariff and trade policy announcements and disclosed purchases in directly affected sectors, including technology, defense and steel, which keeps scrutiny elevated around any market-moving statement from the administration. Because the trading account sits in a revocable trust with a family member as trustee rather than a blind trust, markets have no independent way to…

Earlier:

• Goldman flags China stimulus risk as growth slips further below target

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The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s…

Oil is trading a little lower on Globex Monday, a move that sits alongside rather than in place of the string of Iran-linked headlines already on the wire today: Bessent's toughest-ever sanctions announcement due at 2pm EDT, Rezaei's threat to halt all Gulf oil exports if the economic war continues, and Rezaei's separate remarks framing Trump's Iran strikes as having increased global interest in nuclear weapons. The pullback follows a run where crude posted a second consecutive weekly gain of around 5 to 6 percent, with Brent trading near $94 and WTI near $87 as of Friday's close. No single catalyst for today's move is being reported alongside the price action itself.

--- Crude eased on Globex Monday, a move sitting alongside rather than…

The remark itself carries no identifiable policy mechanism, there is no established channel through which military action could lower Treasury yields, so the immediate market read is confusion rather than a tradeable signal. What matters more for rates desks is the underlying fact pattern: Bessent's accelerated buyback only briefly pushed yields down before the 30-year climbed back toward its 19-year high, suggesting the administration's conventional tools are struggling to contain the move. That failure, layered on top of concerns already circulating about Fed independence and the war-linked deficit and inflation backdrop, is arguably the more consequential signal for term premium than the military comment itself. Commentary flagging…