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New Zealand data soon. Despite the pick up in retail sales in Q1 today's data is expected to be much slower. Fuel prices rocketing will weigh.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.New Zealand Retail Sales Q2 2026:
+3.3% y/y
-0.5% q/q
NZD is little changed circa 0.5973
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.The explicit threat to halt all oil exports from the Persian Gulf, not just the Strait of Hormuz, raises the stakes well beyond the partial disruption markets have priced in over recent months, and traders should treat Rezaei's language as a genuine escalation risk rather than rhetorical posturing given his position atop Iran's security apparatus. Bessent's framing of the sanctions as forcing allies into a binary choice raises the prospect of secondary sanctions risk spreading to shipping, insurance and financial intermediaries well beyond Iran's direct trading partners, which could tighten global crude logistics even without a physical blockade escalation. Separate commentary referencing a plan to target the US bond market alongside…
Kashkari's comments push back against any narrative that surging long-end yields reflect market dysfunction, which should ease some of the term premium anxiety that has crept into rates trading in recent sessions. With the 10-year sitting near 4.73% and the 30-year close to its highest level since 2007, the message that liquidity remains intact is likely to matter more to fixed income desks than the yield level itself. His continued inflation concerns, without a firm commitment to push for a September hike, leave the meeting outcome genuinely live rather than pre-signalled, keeping rate-sensitive assets exposed to incoming data prints between now and then. Attention is also shifting toward new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks…
A confirmed slowdown toward the 4% handle keeps pressure on Chinese equities and the yuan, particularly if incoming August and September data fail to show stabilisation. The gap between bank estimates, Goldman at the softer end near 4%, Macquarie near 4.2%, BNP Paribas at 4.1%, points to genuine uncertainty over how much fiscal and monetary support Beijing will ultimately deploy, which should keep policy-sensitive Asian equities and industrial commodities reactive to each fresh data point. Markets are likely to treat a reserve requirement ratio cut in the fourth quarter as the base case rather than a policy rate cut, given the PBOC's reluctance to touch benchmark rates amid lingering trade war pressure and firmer factory-gate inflation…
Any credible signal that Iran might reconsider its non-nuclear posture adds a new layer of geopolitical risk premium to oil markets already pricing in Strait of Hormuz disruption and an active blockade. Coming from the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council rather than a peripheral commentator, the remarks carry more institutional weight than earlier statements from hardline figures and could sharpen market attention on any future move by Tehran to restrict IAEA access or accelerate enrichment activity. The timing, alongside Washington's escalating economic pressure campaign, suggests Tehran may be using nuclear ambiguity as a bargaining chip rather than signalling an imminent policy change, which traders may treat as…
The breakdown reintroduces cross-border trade risk into North American markets just as investors had begun pricing in a de-escalation after weeks of negotiation. The Canadian dollar has come under renewed pressure, with commentary pointing to a slide toward the low 70s against the US dollar, though that figure should be checked against a primary data feed rather than taken at face value. Steel, dairy and electronics exporters on both sides face the most direct exposure once Canada's retaliatory measures land on September 8. With formal USMCA renewal talks already underway with Mexico but not yet started with Canada, traders may read Ottawa's absence from that process as a signal of prolonged uncertainty rather than a swift resolution.…
The near standstill in Strait of Hormuz shipping keeps a geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil prices, with traders likely to stay cautious heading into Monday's sanctions announcement from Washington. Iran's parliament advancing a bill to charge navigation, environmental, fueling, insurance and safety fees on transiting vessels suggests Tehran is moving toward formalised, monetised control of the waterway rather than a purely war-linked disruption, raising the odds this becomes a semi-permanent cost layered onto Gulf shipping rather than something that unwinds once the conflict does. Any sign that China, the largest buyer of Iranian crude, moves to comply with US pressure would be read as a potential supply-side shift, though…
Its just before:
Early indications:
I'll be back with weekend news soon.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.Bitcoin price analysis: What would activate the potential bull flag toward $84K-$86K?
Bitcoin is trading near $77,100 inside a mildly downward-sloping 1-hour regression channel. The structure resembles a bull flag following the surge from below $70,000 to $79,461, but the pattern is not active yet. Bulls still need a decisive breakout above the channel, while $75,700-$75,200 is the main invalidation zone.
Key takeaways for Bitcoin traders
Current structure: BTC is consolidating inside a downward 1-hour regression channel.
Potential pattern: The surge to $79,461 forms the possible flagpole, while the current channel forms the flag.
Bullish trigger: A decisive 1-hour close above the upper +2σ channel boundary, ideally supported by stronger…