Market News

• Nasdaq and S&P indices are settling between risk/bias defining MAs as the week comes to a close
• Baker Hughes rig count -5 at 588
• European stocks rebound Friday, but weekly losses dominate
• Brazil's Lula and US Pres. Trump held phone call on Friday.
• Gold surges and breaks away from its 200 day MA
• SNB Tschudin: Swiss inflation is low because of low inflation expectations
• Trump: Gets rid of 26.4% tariffs on imported beef and prices will come down by 25%
• EU consumer confidence -15.5 versus -16.3 expected
• Canada Retail sales for June 0.6% vs 0.4% estimate
• Kickstart the North American session: The USD is lower vs the 3 major currency pairs.
• investingLive European markets wrap: Gold runs higher, dollar stays under pressure
• How have interest rate…

Both the Nasdaq and S&P indices are settling with nearly identical gains of around 0.45% on the day. From a technical perspective, both are also ending the week caught between key shorter-term moving averages — below their 100-hour moving averages on the topside, but above their 200-hour moving averages on the downside.

That sets up clearly defined technical goalposts heading into next week's trading.

As long as the indices remain between those moving averages, the technical bias is more neutral, with traders waiting for the next break. A move below the 200-hour moving average would tilt the bias more to the downside and have traders looking toward lower targets. Conversely, a break above the 100-hour moving average would give buyers…

The USDJPY has set the technical guardrails for the rest of today and heading into next week.

Looking at the hourly chart, the low for the day stalled just ahead of the 200-day moving average, currently at 158.313. The low reached 158.35 before buyers stepped in and pushed the pair back higher.

That rebound has taken USDJPY back toward today's high and yesterday's high, where sellers have leaned against the 100-hour moving average at 159.04 and the 200-hour moving average at 159.154.

Those moving averages now define the upper guardrail, while the 200-day moving average defines the lower guardrail.

If the price remains below the 100- and 200-hour moving averages into the close, that area will remain the key topside barometer. Conversely, a…

The AUD is the strongest of the major currencies against the USD today, rising 0.86% and pushing AUDUSD to its highest level since early June. The pair has reached a high of 0.7178, with the next key upside target coming in at the swing area between 0.71993 and 0.7200 (see video and the chart below).

Looking at the price action this week, AUDUSD traded up and down through the first half of the week before reaching its weekly low on Wednesday. That decline took the pair down to test the 50% retracement of the move lower from the May 1, 2026 high to the June low at 0.7070. The 100-day moving average was also nearby, adding to the technical importance of the area.

The price briefly moved below the 50% retracement but could not extend down to…

The weekly Baker Hughes rig count shows:

• Crude oil rigs -3 at 452
• Natural Gas rigs -1 at 127
• Total rigs -5 at 588

For the year:

• Oil was 412
• Natural Gas was at 122
• Total rigs was at 539.  

Crude oil is trading at $87. That's up $0.17 on the day. For the trading week, the price is up $4.60.

Looking at the daily chart, the high-priced today reached $87.51. That is just below the 100 day moving average at $88.05. The high for the week reached $87.69 yesterday.  Moving and staying above the 100 day MA would be more bullish technically.

European shares are closing mostly higher on Friday, but the gains were not enough to erase losses for most of the major indices this week. The broader STOXX 600 is also on pace for a weekly decline as elevated bond yields and oil prices continue to weigh on sentiment.

European closing levels:

• German DAX, +0.59% at 26,136.57
• France's CAC, +0.37% at 8,484.44
• UK's FTSE 100, +0.64% at 10,816.57
• Spain's Ibex, +0.76% at 19,961.50
• Italy's FTSE MIB, unchanged at 52,668.03

For the trading week, the UK FTSE 100 was the only major index to finish higher:

• German DAX, -1.15%
• France's CAC, -1.76%
• UK's FTSE 100, +0.62%
• Spain's Ibex, -0.97%
• Italy's FTSE MIB, -1.71%

European benchmark 10-year yields are marginally higher today:

• Germany 10-year: 3.261%, +0.6 basis…

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and U.S. President Donald Trump held a phone call Friday, with trade and tariffs among the issues discussed.

According to the Brazilian government:

• Lula and Trump held a phone call on Friday, discussing both the bilateral relationship and the broader global agenda.
• Lula reaffirmed the need for negotiations over tariffs between Brazil and the United States.
• Lula reiterated Brazil's commitment to cooperating with the U.S. in combating organized crime.
• Trump suggested that Brazilian and U.S. officials resume meetings as soon as possible.

The timing of the call is particularly interesting given Trump's separate announcement on beef.

Earlier today, Trump announced a 90-day increase in the amount of beef…

The gold buyers raced higher earlier this week, helped by the broader decline in the U.S. dollar. The move carried the price away from its 100-day moving average at $4,391.78 and toward the 200-day moving average at $4,501.13.

Yesterday, gold traded above and below the 200-day moving average as buyers and sellers battled for control. Today, however, the buyers have made a stronger push. With gold currently up around $90 on the day, the price has extended further above the 200-day moving average and has now broken above the 38.2% retracement of the 2026 trading range at $4,573.87.

That breakout gives the buyers more control. The 38.2% retracement at $4,573.87 is now the closest risk-defining level for buyers looking for additional upside…

President Trump is looking to solve another problem - the rising cost of beef prices. He is solving the problem by getting rid of a tariff.  Trump in a TruthSocial post said: 

Beef prices have moved sharply higher mainly because the U.S. cattle herd has been shrinking for years, leaving fewer cattle available for beef production just as consumer demand has remained strong. USDA says the herd is now around its lowest level in roughly 75 years.

The latest numbers are striking. As of July 1, 2026, the U.S. had 94.2 million cattle and calves, but only 28.5 million beef cows, down another 1% from a year earlier. The 2026 calf crop is estimated at 32.5 million head, down 2%. On January 1, the total herd was just 86.2 million head—the seasonal…

SNB Governing Board member Petra Tschudin is commenting on the inflation and interest-rate outlook, with the central bank keeping the door open to negative rates if needed. At the same time, she cautions against interpreting the SNB’s inflation forecasts as a signal that rates will remain unchanged over the forecast horizon.

Her key comments:

• Artificial intelligence can increase inflation in the short term.
• Swiss inflation is low because of low inflation expectations and the low weight of oil in the Swiss consumer basket.
• Ready to take interest rates below zero if necessary.
• The SNB does not publish interest-rate forecasts; the current inflation forecast should not be taken to mean rates will remain at their current level for three…

• Prior month -15.9
• Flash estimate for August -15.5 versus -16.3 estimate

Every month, the Directorate-GeneralEconomic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN) of the European Commission releases the flash CCI for the EU andeuro-area aggregates, using the data available on the cut-off date. The final Consumer Survey results are thenpublished as part of the full Business and Consumer Survey release at the end of the month.

The USDCHF fell sharply this week, helped by the fundamental catalyst of U.S. Treasury buying and the subsequent selling of the U.S. dollar. The move pushed the pair below the value area that had contained most of the price action over the past two-plus months, giving sellers greater technical control.

More specifically, the price broke below a swing area between 0.8029 and 0.8034, and then through another swing area at 0.8009 to 0.80178. The selling continued on Thursday with a break below the 100-day moving average, but downside momentum stalled near the 61.8% retracement at 0.79519. The low reached 0.7949 before buyers stepped in and pushed the price higher late in the session.

In trading today, the price action has been more up and…