Market News

The first thing any trader should learn is that markets move on expectations. It doesn't matter if they are right or wrong, prices will still move based on the prevailing context and expectations about the future. If something changes those expectations, markets will just reprice to reflect the new information. There's also something called reflexivity, where market's thoughts and beliefs can turn expectations into reality.

The key point is that markets are not reacting to the mechanical impact of the buybacks themselves. They are reacting to what Bessent's comments imply about the willingness to lean against rising long-term Treasury yields.

In recent months, the bond market was effectively tightening policy on its own. Rising long-term…

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ECB policymaker Mārtiņš Kazāks said inflation expectations remain anchored close to the ECB's target, a sign that households, businesses, and financial markets continue to have confidence in the central bank's commitment to price stability.

He also highlighted that wage growth is gradually slowing, suggesting that one of the key domestic drivers of inflationary pressure may continue to moderate in the coming quarters. The ECB has repeatedly pointed to wage dynamics as a key factor in assessing whether inflation can settle sustainably around target.

At the same time, he acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook, arguing that forward guidance has become counterproductive in the current environment. With geopolitical…

US Stocks Drop as Yields Rally Again – Dow down 1.3%

US equity markets came under renewed pressure in trading yesterday as rising Treasury yields and escalating geopolitical concerns continued to weigh on risk appetite. The Dow Jones fell 1.32% to 52,759, while the S&P 500 declined 0.87% to 7,641. The technology-heavy Nasdaq also dropped 1.00% to 26,067, extending the recent weakness across US equities.

Treasury yields moved higher across the curve despite the US Treasury announcing an increase in its longer-dated bond buyback operations just one day earlier. The 2-year yield rose 2.5 basis points to 4.187%, while the benchmark 10-year yield climbed 5.9 basis points to 4.704%, highlighting the continued pressure on the US bond…

IC – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 21 August 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

Rising inflation and interest-rate risk versus resilient U.S. economic activity. Jobless claims falling to 206K and the unexpectedly strong Philadelphia Fed manufacturing reading provided evidence that the U.S. economy remains relatively firm, while higher oil prices and ongoing geopolitical tensions added to inflation concerns. At the same time, U.S. Treasury yields rebounded sharply, with the 10-year around 4.70%, putting pressure on equities and creating volatility across FX and gold. Oil was among the strongest markets amid continued Middle East supply concerns, while gold remained volatile after its major Wednesday rally.

What does it mean for the…