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Gold took a knock after the hotter-than-expected US CPI report, with the precious metal briefly dipping back below the $4,100 mark yesterday. The drop at the time touched a low just under $4,080 before dip buyers stepped back in to arrest the decline.

It seemed like a relatively straightforward move at first but with the dollar and Treasury yields reversing their respective advance, we are seeing gold also bounce back today. The precious metal is being afforded some breathing room again with price now recovering to $4,140 levels.

That throws the ball back over to the buyers' side of the court. Can they actually turn that into something more meaningful?

Looking at the near-term chart above, there's certainly some encouragement for buyers. The…

US stocks took a hit yesterday from the hotter-than-expected September CPI report, which saw headline prices jump and core annual inflation also push up to 2.6%. Tech shares were the ones bearing the brunt of the pain and with futures also pointing lower today, it is tempting to pin all the blame on inflation. The simple argument is that the last thing that investors want to see is the Fed reaching for another reason to keep rates "higher for longer".

Having said that, the bond market reaction didn't exactly play to the same tune. Treasury yields spiked higher on the data release but quickly gave it all back and are falling even lower today. 10-year yields are now down to 5.10%, its lowest in three weeks. And yet, stocks seem to be…

Conway’s comments keep a late-October hike live, which should support the New Zealand dollar against currencies where rate expectations are falling, most notably the Australian dollar after Thursday’s weak jobs report. That divergence makes AUD/NZD a natural expression of the gap between a dovish-leaning RBA and a still-hawkish RBNZ. By declining to commit, the RBNZ leaves markets highly sensitive to the next round of New Zealand data, so expect pricing to swing between a hold and a hike before the decision. A firm tightening bias also limits the scope for New Zealand yields to fall much further in the near term.

- The RBNZ wants the market to know a hike is coming, just not necessarily when.

Summary:

• RBNZ chief economist Conway said the…

• RBNZ’s Conway says October rate decision completely open, OCR more likely to rise
• AUD lower: Australian jobs fall 39,300 in September, unemployment at five-year high of 4.7%
• BOJ’s Koeda says bank should not be overly cautious about raising rates
• Gold jumps around $40 as Treasury yields retreat from post-CPI high
• Talk grows that China is routing US Treasury holdings through Canada: Bloomberg
• Bolivia overhauls gold export rules to draw in dollars and lift bank deposits
• US weighs easing shadow fleet sanctions to cut record tanker freight rates
• Iran’s IRGC orders evacuation of military bases as US strike fears grow: reports
• Australian September 2026 unemployment rate 4.7% (expected 4.6%, prior 4.7%)
• CoreWeave bonds trade like distressed debt as AI…

The comments support the view that the ECB can hold its nerve on an energy-led price shock, which should limit pressure for tighter policy in the near term and leave the euro without a fresh rate-driven boost. His attribution of higher yields to fiscal issues rather than inflation is notable for bond traders, since it suggests the ECB sees the selloff as a matter for governments rather than for monetary policy. That points to limited appetite to lean against yields through policy. Natural gas is the swing factor, and a cold start to winter would quickly test his relaxed stance and could revive hawkish pricing.

Álvaro Santos Pereira is the governor of the Banco de Portugal, Portugal’s central bank. That makes him a member of the ECB’s…

The report shifts the RBA debate from when the next hike comes to whether it comes at all, with a pause now looking the likelier near-term outcome. That leaves the Australian dollar out of step with the wider market. While gold and major currencies have risen against the US dollar on lower Treasury yields, the Aussie has stayed near its post-data lows, as a narrowing rate outlook at home offsets the broader dollar weakness. Further AUD underperformance is likely on crosses such as AUD/NZD and AUD/JPY if markets keep paring RBA hike bets. The noisy nature of the data means the next release, and the RBA’s revised forecasts in November, will carry extra weight.

-- Australia’s jobs market blinked in September, and with it went most of the…

Koeda’s message leans hawkish: by placing the neutral rate considerably above the current 1.25% policy rate and warning against excessive caution, she keeps further BOJ hikes firmly on the table. That should offer the yen some support, particularly against a backdrop where Fed hike expectations have also risen, which narrows the room for the yen to weaken on rate differentials alone. Her observation that the yen has lost some of its safe-haven role is notable for currency traders, since it suggests geopolitical shocks may now hurt the yen through higher oil import costs rather than help it. Japanese government bond yields may also face upward pressure if markets price a faster path toward neutral.

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Koeda’s message to markets is that 1.25%…

The rebound suggests markets may have overreacted to the CPI print, with the post-data selloff in Treasuries now looking stretched. For gold, the key level is less a price than a relationship: as long as 10-year yields keep drifting lower, bullion has a tailwind, but the metal remains exposed to any revival in Fed hike pricing. A weaker US dollar alongside lower yields would strengthen the move, so the dollar index is worth watching as confirmation. The US session will show whether the rally has follow-through.

--- Gold and Treasuries are rallying on the same idea: China may not be dumping US debt after all, just keeping it somewhere else.

Summary:

• Gold has climbed around $40 during the Asian session
• 10-year Treasury yields are more than 20bp…

If China’s holdings are more stable than reported, one of the market’s recurring worries, a steady Chinese exit from Treasuries, would carry less weight, which could ease some concern about foreign demand at US debt auctions. The theory also shows why headline foreign holdings data can mislead traders who read monthly declines as outright selling. Watch auction metrics such as indirect bidder demand, a common proxy for foreign buyers, alongside the custody data, since a mismatch between the two would add weight to the theory. Any official denial or confirmation would be the main catalyst, and neither looks imminent.

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China’s Treasury holdings may not be shrinking at all, just changing address, and the clue is a $600 billion pile with…

This is a domestic foreign exchange measure rather than a gold price story, so the effect on global bullion markets is likely to be negligible. For Bolivia, a steadier flow of dollars into local banks would ease pressure on the exchange rate and on importers that need hard currency, which supports the recent shift to a flexible rate. The 80% repatriation rule could, however, push some exporters back towards informal channels if they see it as too restrictive, which would undercut the goal. Investors in Bolivian dollar debt are likely to watch for any pickup in reserves and deposit data as a sign the policy is working.

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Short of dollars, Bolivia is swapping central bank paperwork for a simple rule on gold exports: bring most of the money…

For oil traders, the signal matters more than the mechanics: Washington is clearly prioritising lower fuel costs ahead of the midterms and is willing to bend sanctions policy to get there. Any added tanker capacity in the Gulf would most directly help Middle East barrels reach Asian buyers, which could narrow the premium Asian refiners pay for alternative supply. Tanker equities, which have benefited from record rates, may be sensitive to headlines like this even if the real capacity added proves small. The political backlash over the Russian diesel waiver suggests any formal move will face resistance from Congress and European allies, so the policy may be slow to take shape.

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Earlier:

• Iran’s IRGC orders evacuation of military bases as US…

Unconfirmed geopolitical headlines like this often trigger a quick knee-jerk move, followed by a pullback if no confirmation follows, so early price action may overstate the real risk. Traders are likely to add some protection against escalation in the meantime, which tends to show up in safe havens such as gold, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc. The bigger move would come from any official confirmation or a statement from Washington, since either would turn a rumour into a tradeable event. Positioning ahead of the weekend could also amplify moves if the reports aren’t resolved during the week.

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Earlier:

• Oil catch up - price gains as Houthis strike Aramco and Iran flags new tactics against tankers

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If the reports hold up, Tehran is…