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The hotter-than-expected US CPI report yesterday was already enough to give markets a bit of a headache. And despite the initial surge higher in Treasury yields fading, there's still evidence of jitters with equities staying under pressure today. So if investors are hoping for some breathing room to get by, I'm afraid there might be more bad news to deal with as we're not quite done with the inflation and economic data risks just yet.

Looking to the session ahead, there are three key US economic data releases to watch out for:

• September PPI: This will be another inflation test, this time looking at price pressures faced by producers
• September retail sales: This will be a key gauge of consumer spending and whether higher prices are actually…

IC – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 15 October 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

The biggest Asia-session development was Australia’s unexpectedly weak employment report, which pushed the Australian dollar lower and reduced expectations for another RBA rate hike. Meanwhile, hotter US inflation weighed on Asian stocks, particularly technology shares, as traders considered the possibility of higher US interest rates. Gold rebounded as the dollar eased, while oil remained supported by supply concerns and Middle East tensions.

What does it mean for the European & US sessions?

Markets enter Thursday with uncertainty over U.S. inflation and the Federal Reserve’s next move. Hotter-than-expected U.S. CPI has kept rate concerns alive, but…

Gold nearly fell to new monthly lows yesterday following the higher than expected Core CPI but eventually recovered all the losses. I think the initial reaction was an overreaction, as I mentioned that an uptick to 0.3% wouldn’t have been enough to make the market to fully price in an October rate hike.

In fact, after the knee-jerk reaction, the probability of a rate hike at the upcoming meeting stabilised around 30%, just 9% higher than the 21% probability seen before the CPI release.

Today, we have US PPI on the agenda, but I don’t see it materially changing rate hike expectations. As a result, we could see a similar market reaction to yesterday’s CPI release, …

●         Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 5.13%, Shanghai Composite down 1.98% Hang Seng down 1.13% ASX down 0.11%

●        Commodities : Gold at $4,171.76 (1.56%) Silver at $56.198 (0.56%), Brent Oil at 104.48 (-1.48%), WTI Oil at 94.17 (-0.98%)

●        Rates : US 10-year yield at 5.094, UK 10-year yield at 5.4313, Germany 10-year yield at 3.4666

●        (USD)  Core CPI m/m   0.3% to 0.2%  expected

U.S. stock futures declined on Wednesday night as investors assessed the outlook for inflation, upcoming economic data and corporate earnings following a broad market sell-off.

S&P 500 futures fell 0.2%, while Nasdaq-100 futures dropped 0.7%. Dow Jones Industrial Average…

• Eurostoxx -0.8%
• Germany DAX -0.4%
• France CAC 40 +0.1%
• UK FTSE +0.1%
• Spain IBEX +0.2%
• Italy FTSE MIB -0.5%

It's a mixed start to the day in Europe, though the broader mood is leaning more towards the softer side. German and Italian stocks are struggling the most, even if the likes of France and Spain are managing to hold on to marginal gains.

The more cautious mood we're seeing here is not all too surprising after the beatdown in Wall Street yesterday, with the S&P 500 falling by 1.1% and Nasdaq slumping by 1.9%. The hotter-than-expected US CPI report certainly didn't help, with investors having to reassess the prospect of the Fed keeping interest rates "higher for longer".

Having said that, the bigger concern appears to be the ongoing pressure on…

US Stocks Drop as Inflation Concerns Weigh on Sentiment – Nasdaq Falls 1.88%

US equity markets finished lower yesterday as stronger-than-expected inflation data weighed on investor sentiment and renewed concerns over the outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy. Technology stocks experienced the heaviest selling pressure, with the Nasdaq declining 1.88% to close at 26,692, while the broader S&P 500 fell 1.11% to finish at 7,718. The Dow Jones Industrial Average performed relatively better, edging just 0.09% lower to close at 51,621. Investors remain cautious as persistent inflationary pressures and elevated interest rates continue to present challenges for equity valuations, particularly in the technology sector.

US Treasury…

IC – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 15 October 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

The U.S. session was bearish for stocks and gold but supportive of the dollar. Higher-than-expected inflation increased the risk of further Fed tightening, putting pressure on technology shares and other risk-sensitive assets. Oil held up better because of Middle East supply concerns.

For traders, the main focus today is whether U.S. producer-price inflation and retail sales confirm continued price pressure and economic strength. Stronger-than-expected data could support the USD and pressure gold and equities, while weaker figures could ease rate-hike concerns.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian traders should focus first on the weaker…

• France September final CPI +3.1% vs +3.0% y/y prelim
• Prior +2.4%
• France September final HICP +3.4% vs +3.4% y/y prelim
• Prior +2.6%
• France September core CPI +1.5% y/y
• Prior +1.1%

The final figures for September are out and they're not exactly offering much comfort for the ECB. The annual readings confirm another notable jump in price pressures, adding to the inflation concerns we've been seeing across the euro area lately.

Energy prices remain the biggest culprit, surging 21.3% annually in September compared with 16.7% in August. Once again, that is largely triggered by the ongoing fallout from the Middle East conflict.

That being said, we're also starting to see broader price pressures creeping in elsewhere. Core annual inflation picked up to…

It's been quite a messy reaction in the bond market after the hotter-than-expected US CPI report yesterday. 10-year Treasury yields briefly pushed above 5.30% on the initial reaction before falling back now to around 5.10%, its lowest in three weeks. That's certainly a welcome change for broader markets, but it doesn't really change things all too much for the US economy.

The fact of the matter is just because borrowing costs are getting a little cheaper doesn't exactly mean that they are actually cheap.

Think about it this way. Just imagine that you're looking to buy a house and the bank offers you a mortgage at 7%. A few weeks later, that rate drops to 6.9%. Sure, that's a better situation on paper. However, does it suddenly make that…

There are a couple of key expiry levels to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.

The first is a rather chunky one for EUR/USD at the 1.1250 level, with the strike sitting just less than 40 pips away from the spot price. With the dollar retreating alongside Treasury yields as traders continue to digest the US September CPI report, that might keep this expiry level in play especially if the pair continues to nudge higher in the session ahead.

The near-term chart is also starting to turn with EUR/USD buyers breaking back above both the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages in trading today, the first time in five weeks. That signifies a more bullish near-term picture but all eyes will be on whether Treasury yields will stick…