Market News

• Prior 1.3%

Details

• Retail sales MoM: +0.8% vs +0.3% expected. Prior revised to +1.2% from +1.1%.

• Retail sales excluding autos MoM: +0.9% vs +0.5% expected. Prior revised to +1.4% from +1.3%.

• Retail sales excluding gasoline and autos MoM: +0.2%. Prior revised to +1.2% from +1.1%.

• Retail control group MoM: +0.1% vs +0.3% expected. Prior revised to +1.4% from +1.2%.

US retail sales were stronger than expected in September, rising 0.8% compared with the 0.3% estimate. Sales excluding autos also comfortably beat expectations, while upward revisions added to the strength of the prior month.

However, the details take some shine off the headline. Sales excluding gasoline and autos rose a more modest 0.2%. The control group, which feeds into estimates of…

• Prior was -0.4% (revised to -0.3%)
• Wholesale trade -1.6% vs -1.5% expected
• Prior trade +0.3% (revised to +0.4%)

Statistics Canada publishes two monthly reports that track activity in the goods-producing side of the economy: the Monthly Survey of Manufacturing and the Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey. Both arrive first as advance “flash” estimates, roughly three weeks after the reference month ends. Full releases follow a few weeks later with detailed industry and provincial breakdowns.

Manufacturing sales measure the value of goods shipped by Canadian factories. Key industries include petroleum and coal products, food, transportation equipment, primary metals and chemicals. Because the headline is reported in current dollars, swings in…

• Initial jobless claims: 199,000, up 1,000. Prior revised to 198,000 from 197,000.

• Initial claims four-week average: 198,500, up 250. Prior revised to 198,250 from 198,000.

• Continuing claims: 1,710,000 for the week ending October 3, down 4,000. Prior revised to 1,714,000 from 1,716,000.

• Continuing claims four-week average: 1,708,750, down 1,750. Prior revised to 1,710,500 from 1,711,000.

• Insured unemployment rate: 1.1%, unchanged.

US initial jobless claims increased modestly to 199,000 in the week ending October 10, according to the Labor Department. The prior week was revised higher by 1,000, but new filings remained below the 200,000 level. Continuing claims edged lower, leaving the overall picture little changed.

The jump in unadjusted claims…

Headlines:

• Ethereum extends losses after the US CPI as risk sentiment deteriorates further. What's next?
• Why do altcoins crash so much harder than Bitcoin?
• Oil remains supported amid persistent Middle East tensions as US weighs using "Mother of All Bombs"
• Bitcoin sinks after the US CPI as markets get increasingly worried about the growth outlook
• US inflation worries aren't over yet as PPI and retail sales pose fresh risks for markets
• Gold whipsaws after US CPI as data falls short of bringing an October rate hike back into play
• European stock market open: Equities under pressure as Wall Street selloff weighs on sentiment
• France inflation rises sharply in September as price pressures add to ECB rate hike dilemma
• Macro pulse: Treasury yields may be…

Ethereum tumbled yesterday following the hotter than expected US Core CPI, with a broader risk-off sentiment in the crypto market adding to the pressure.

The limited changes in rate hike expectations and the dovish repricing further out the curve, though, suggest that markets might be getting increasingly more concerned about the growth outlook.

If these expectations get confirmed by deteriorating economic data, Ethereum could remain under pressure as traders will likely reduce exposure to risk-sensitive assets like cryptocurrencies.

On the positive side, Interactive Brokers launched Ethereum staking for eligible US clients on October 13, broadening access to…

Crude oil continues to edge higher amid lack of improvements in the Middle East. As a reminder, the Saudi Arabia-Houthis conflict has intensified recently with the Houthis attacking many Saudi targets, including Riyadh's international airport and the Aramco headquarters complex in Dhahran.

They have threatened further attacks on airports and energy infrastructure, while Saudi-backed forces are fighting the Houthis inside Yemen.

Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues to be disrupted. Two vessels sank recently after being hit by Iranian forces. Iran's leadership said it will continue fighting until the US accepts its demands.

Finally,…

When you look at your screener and notice that Bitcoin is down 5%, you will more often than not also catch that smaller cryptocurrencies are plunging by 10% or even 20%. They are all part of the same crypto market, so it is natural to expect the direction of travel to be the same. But why is the magnitude of the moves so stark?

Well, the important difference is more in how these cryptocurrencies trade.

Just think of an example where you are trying to sell a second-hand Toyota Corolla. It's a fairly popular car, so chances are you'll easily find someone willing to buy it without having to knock too much your asking price.

But now, imagine that you are trying to sell a heavily customised sports car instead. Sure, the car is worth more than the…

Bitcoin tanked yesterday following the higher than expected US Core CPI, but the minor changes in rate hike expectations and the dovish repricing further out the curve, suggest the market might be starting to get more concerned about the growth outlook.

It’s interesting that stocks, copper, crypto, the US dollar and yields are all trading lower today, while gold has regained all the losses. It feels more like a stagflationary environment where risk assets and the US dollar generally underperform, while gold outperforms.

Looking ahead, we have the Flash PMIs, the FOMC, the US-Iran negotiations and the US midterm elections as key catalysts. If the economic data starts pointing…

The hotter-than-expected US CPI report yesterday was already enough to give markets a bit of a headache. And despite the initial surge higher in Treasury yields fading, there's still evidence of jitters with equities staying under pressure today. So if investors are hoping for some breathing room to get by, I'm afraid there might be more bad news to deal with as we're not quite done with the inflation and economic data risks just yet.

Looking to the session ahead, there are three key US economic data releases to watch out for:

• September PPI: This will be another inflation test, this time looking at price pressures faced by producers
• September retail sales: This will be a key gauge of consumer spending and whether higher prices are actually…

IC – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 15 October 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

The biggest Asia-session development was Australia’s unexpectedly weak employment report, which pushed the Australian dollar lower and reduced expectations for another RBA rate hike. Meanwhile, hotter US inflation weighed on Asian stocks, particularly technology shares, as traders considered the possibility of higher US interest rates. Gold rebounded as the dollar eased, while oil remained supported by supply concerns and Middle East tensions.

What does it mean for the European & US sessions?

Markets enter Thursday with uncertainty over U.S. inflation and the Federal Reserve’s next move. Hotter-than-expected U.S. CPI has kept rate concerns alive, but…