Market News

Dow Jones futures are showing encouraging technical strength at a time when technology stocks are struggling. A breakout from a descending channel, a successful pullback, and a recovery above important price levels suggest buyers are regaining control. But there may be a bigger story: investors could be rotating toward different parts of the U.S. stock market rather than abandoning equities altogether.

That distinction matters for both short-term traders and longer-term investors.

Four bullish developments on the Dow Jones futures chart

The accompanying four-hour chart of Dow Jones E-mini futures (YM) provides an interesting picture of how market sentiment may be changing.

Let's examine the four numbered observations on my 4h Dow Jones…

Just last Tuesday, Nvidia traded at an all-time high of $243.37. Since then, six of the past seven trading days have produced lower closes. Today’s low reached $212.85, representing a decline of 12.54% from that record high.

That is a sharp reversal. However, today’s selling also brought the price to a key technical support area—and buyers have responded.

Sellers had their shot below support

The move lower picked up steam after Nvidia broke below a swing area defined by prior highs between $230.32 and $236.54. That break gave sellers more control and turned the former support area into overhead resistance.

Today’s gap lower brought two additional technical levels into play:

• 100-day moving average: $214.47

• 38.2% retracement of the 2026 trading…

• Prior was -3186
• Gasoline K vs -800K exp
• Distillates K vs -1560K exp

WTI crude oil was trading at the highest levels since late September ahead of the release. On the day, it ws up $2.33 to $97.41. Meanwhile, Trump was out this morning in Montana saying the Iran war will end "very soon" and that "oil prices will drop like a rock" which is the same thing he has been saying since it started.  There are no signs of imminent diplomacy. 

Australia’s September jobs report was weaker than expected, giving the RBA more room to remain patient. For the AUDUSD, the report helped push the price lower. The technical breaks that followed have given sellers more control.

In the video, I look at those breaks, the levels sellers need to stay below, and the next downside targets.

Employment falls, but the details are mixed

The key seasonally adjusted figures showed:

• Employment fell 39,300, compared with expectations for a 20,000 increase.

• August’s gain was revised lower to 29,300 from 39,500.

• Unemployment was 4.7%, above the 4.6% expected. August was revised to 4.7%, leaving September unchanged at the rounded level.

• Full-time employment rose 34,400, but part-time employment fell…

In yesterday’s video, I looked at three major US stock indices. Each offered a different view of the market—and a different technical story:

• S&P 500: The broadest sector representation of the three.

• Nasdaq Composite: A broader collection of Nasdaq-listed companies, with a heavy technology weighting.

• Nasdaq 100: A more concentrated index of 100 of the largest nonfinancial companies listed on Nasdaq, with significant technology exposure.

At the time, the S&P was trying to hold support at its 100-hour moving average. The Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 were trading between their 100- and 200-hour moving averages, giving sellers a modest short-term advantage.

By the close, that advantage had grown. Both Nasdaq indices finished below their 200-hour…

The Nasdaq sold off sharply yesterday after US Core CPI came in higher than expected. What’s interesting, though, is that after the initial hawkish reaction, rate expectations further out the curve shifted in a dovish direction, and Treasury yields moved lower.

Copper, which is often seen as a barometer of global growth, also fell sharply following the CPI release. This might be an early sign that markets are becoming increasingly concerned about the future economic outlook.

The prolonged Middle East crisis is adding to those concerns, while persistent inflation risks could force the Fed to raise rates more than expected or keep them higher for longer. That could leave…

The U.S. dollar is lower against most of the major currencies, with the Swiss franc leading the gains. The Australian dollar is the exception after a weaker Australian jobs report.

Treasury yields are sharply lower, but that is not providing much relief for technology stocks. Nasdaq futures remain under pressure after yesterday’s sharp declines, and we have PPI, retail sales and jobless claims coming up.

In the video, I take a look at EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD, defining the bias, the risk and the targets that would give the buyers or sellers more control.

Morning Kickstart

The U.S. dollar is trading lower against most major currencies as Treasury yields retreat. However, lower yields are not translating into a broad recovery in stocks.…

The bond market is calling time out on the AI spending spree.

For a time, no valuations were too high and no spending plans unrealistic. Now it looks like we've arrived at the reckoning as yields on bonds from CoreWeave blow out to 15%.

I have written all year about the unbelievable spending commitments on AI and data centers. It rivals spending on WW2 and is -- by far-- the greatest commitment of private capital to anything. One of the problems is a timing mismatch as the insane demand for chips and power doesn't always aling with the supply chain. That risks big slips in when data centers will come online (and be powered) compared to when the bills come due.

In addition, the rush for borrowing for these projects is competing with the US…

• Prior was +0.8%
• Retail inventories ex-autos vs +0.8% prior

For background, the US business inventories report, formally the Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales release, is published monthly by the Census Bureau about six weeks after the reference month ends. It combines inventory and sales data from three sectors: manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers. Together they cover the bulk of goods held in the US economy.

By the time the report is released, much of it is already known. Manufacturing inventories come out earlier in the factory orders report. Advance estimates for wholesale and retail inventories arrive in the Advance Economic Indicators release roughly four weeks after month end. Business inventories completes the…

• Prior was +37.8

Details:

• New orders 4.3 versus 29.2 last month
• Shipments 15.3 versus 27.7 last month
• Unfilled orders 2.4 versus 20.4 last month
• Delivery times 8.5 versus 26.5 last month
• Inventories -12.8 versus -12.5 last month
• Prices paid 43.2 versus 48.6 last month
• Prices received 40.1 versus 31.3 last month
• Number of employees 9.1 versus 11.8 last month
• Average employee workweek 7.5 versus 18.0 last month

Six-months from now indicators:

• 6 month index 33.0 vs 52.9 last month
• Capex index 6-month forward 34.9 versus 37.1 last month
• New orders 37.0 versus 62.3 last month
• Shipments 35.2 versus 61.1 last month
• Unfilled orders -1.6 versus 16.8 last month
• Delivery times -7.5 versus 18.6 last month
• Inventories 23.4 versus 11.6 last month
• Prices paid 62.9 …

• Prior was +7.60

Manufacturing activity in New York State expanded in October, with the Empire State Manufacturing Survey’s general business conditions index climbing 18 points to 25.5, its highest reading since December 2021.

The stronger headline reading was supported by a sharp increase in new orders and a solid rise in shipments, pointing to improving business activity. The new orders index jumped 21 points to 23.2, while the shipments index rose 16 points to 13.1.

Unfilled orders also increased, with the index rising eight points to 14.0. Delivery times lengthened significantly, while supply availability deteriorated further, with the supply availability index falling three points to -15.1, its lowest level since June 2022. Inventories…

• Prior was 5.4%
• PPI final demand m/m vs +0.5% expected
• Prior m/m +0.4%
• Ex-food and energy y/y vs+4.4% expected
• Prior ex-food and energy 4.6% y/y
• Ex-food and energy m/m vs +0.3% expected
• Prior ex-food and energy +0.2% m/m
• Ex-food, energy and trade y/y vs +4.7% prior
• Ex-food, energy and trade m/m vs +0.3% prior

The Producer Price Index (PPI), published monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, measures the average change in the selling prices that domestic producers receive for their output. Where the CPI tracks inflation from the consumer’s side of the register, the PPI looks at it from the seller’s side, capturing prices at the wholesale and business level before they reach households.

The headline figure is the final demand index, which…