Market News

Coming up soon is Beth Hammack, president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Earlier this week:

• Fed’s Hammack: Treasury rates are “modest” by historical standards
• Fed’s Hammack says more tightening needed to cool demand, keeps open mind on pace

And later in the session, Bailey, Nagel, Warsh and Macklem. I'll be back with previews soon, but for now:

• 'fireside chat' including Warsh at the IMF meetings. We will see if he sticks to his plan of not giving guidance

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Snatching victory from the jaws of defeat.

The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite closed higher after buyers turned a difficult session for technology shares into a recovery. The Nasdaq 100 could not quite complete the comeback, but its modest decline looked considerably better than the losses earlier in the day.

The Dow industrial average led the large-cap indices higher, with Nike topping its percentage gainers. Small caps also participated, with the Russell 2000 rising 1.38%. The recovery extended beyond the biggest technology names, although pockets of heavy selling remained among semiconductor and AI infrastructure shares.

The closing numbers

• Dow Industrial Average: +557.06 points, or +1.08%, at 52,183.23.

• S&P 500: +25.15 points, or…

Sterling and short-dated gilts are most exposed to Bailey’s remarks, because front-end pricing already assumes a November hike is close to a done deal. If he endorses that view, rate support for the pound stays in place. Any hint of patience, or emphasis on the softer jobs market, could pull hike odds lower and weigh on the currency. Oil remains the swing factor: the Bank’s case for tightening rests on oil and gas prices staying well above pre-war levels, so any easing in Brent would weaken the hawkish argument more than anything Bailey says.

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Bailey has spent a month telling markets that high energy prices are making a hold harder to justify, and Bangkok is his chance to confirm or cool a November hike they have almost fully priced.

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The euro and short-dated Bunds are most sensitive to any steer from Nagel on December. A clear endorsement of a further hike would firm rate support for the single currency. Any nod to French fiscal strain as a reason for caution would point the other way. Oil remains the key driver of the ECB debate: Nagel has called it one of the indicators the Governing Council must now watch, so a sustained easing in crude and gas prices would weaken the case for more tightening. Klingbeil’s comments on German spending matter for Bund supply and longer-dated yields.

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It's a huge session for central bank speakers today:

• Economic and event calendar in Asia Friday, October 16, 2026 - Federal Reserve Chair Warsh speaking
• BOE, Bailey, Bangkok. What could…

The price of crude oil futures settled up to dollars and $0.88 or 3.03% at $97.97. The high price for the day extended to $98.32. The low price was at $93.58.

Fundamentally, U.S. crude inventories fell 8.6 million barrels, compared with expectations for a draw of just 288,000 barrels. That helped to explain WTI’s stronger performance.

In the Middle East:

• Iran is stepping up pressure on shipping. Reporting published yesterday indicates Iran has changed tactics and increased attacks around the Strait of Hormuz, with operations extending farther into surrounding waters. Iranian officials described an effort to keep oil prices elevated ahead of the U.S. elections. That threatens the recovery in regional exports and keeps shipping and insurance…

• US September PPI 6.3% vs 5.3% expected
• US October Philly Fed business index +20.9 vs +28.4 expected
• US October Empire Manufacturing index +25.50 vs +10.25 expected
• US retails sales for September 0.8% MoM vs 0.3% estimate. Prior month 1.3%
• Canada August manufacturing sales +1.5% vs +1.1% expected
• US initial jobless claim 199K vs 200K estimate
• US August business inventories +0.4% vs +0.4% expected
• US weekly EIA crude oil inventories -8557K vs -288K expected
• Atlanta Fed GDPNow holds at 3.6% for Q3 as consumer spending outlook improves

Markets:

• WTI crude oil up $2.50 to $97.59
• US 10-year yields down 9.9 bps to 5.09%
• S&P 500 up 0.4%
• Gold up $61 to $4166
• CHF leads, USD lags

The most-interesting development of the afternoon in US trading was that an AI focused…

I hate to break up the party from this nice bounce in equities but when you drill into what's driving it, there's a problem.

The biggest gainers today are many of the worst performers this year. That suggests today's move is more driven by short covering than by a rethink on AI or even the reversal in yields.

One of the biggest gainers today is Nike, which is up 6.5% while Lululemon is up 6.3%. Both have been among the worst performers this year. Intuit and Expedia are also big gainers.

There are some indications that the break lower in yields is part of the equation with housing-related names like Pool Corp up 8% and Zillow up 10.2%. The home builders XHB ETF is also up 2.9%. You could extend that to the whole move but I'd be reluctant to…

The USDCHF moved to a new high yesterday going back to May 2025, but the buyers ran into a key technical target on the daily chart.

The 50% midpoint of the move down from the 2025 high comes in at 0.8400. Yesterday’s high reached approximately 0.83944, just short of that midpoint. Sellers leaned against the level, and the price rotated lower.

The buyers had their shot at extending the rally. They could not get through the next major target.

That gives the sellers a level to define risk against on the daily chart. That level remains going forward.  Stay below 0.8400, and there is room for a further corrective move lower. A move above—and the ability to stay above—would be needed to open the door for another extension to the upside.

The daily…

Bitcoin fell to a low of $79,694 today, taking the price below a key swing area between $80,106 and $81,183. That area dates back to August 20 and has been an important reference for traders.

The break below that floor should have opened the door for additional selling pressure. Once broken, the swing area—and particularly its upper boundary at $81,183—should have attracted sellers on a corrective bounce.

However, the sellers could not sustain the momentum.

After reaching the new low, the price snapped back higher, closed back above the top of the swing area, and continued its recovery. Over the last hour, that rebound extended to $82,537.

The sellers had their shot. They missed.

That failure takes some of the bearish pressure off the market…

As London/European traders head home, the major European stock indices are closing with mixed results. The UK’s FTSE 100 led the gains, followed by France’s CAC and Germany’s DAX. Spain and Italy moved lower.

The closing snapshot shows:

• Germany’s DAX: +69.41 points or +0.27% at 25,368.03.

• France’s CAC: +61.59 points or +0.78% at 7,934.71.

• UK’s FTSE 100: +115.47 points or +1.08% at 10,840.34.

• Spain’s IBEX 35: −53.00 points or −0.28% at 19,177.71.

• Italy’s FTSE MIB: −356.29 points or −0.72% at 49,397.56.

The spread between the UK and Italy was about 1.8 percentage points. Buyers had the upper hand in some markets, but the gains were far from uniform.

European bond yields move lower

Benchmark 10-year yields fell across the major European markets, with…

The USDCAD has been on a rollercoaster rid of the last few days (see chart below).  

A day after testing its highest level of the year—and its highest since April 2025—the USDCAD rotated lower as sellers leaned against the highs.

That selling pushed the price below a floor that had held since September 30 between 1.4192 and 1.4204. The break took the pair to a session low of 1.4171, but the momentum quickly faded. Within the same hourly bar, the price recovered back into the swing area and subsequently pushed toward its upper boundary.

The sellers had their shot below the floor. They missed.

That gives buyers an incentive to probe higher. However, the recovery has yet to generate much momentum above 1.4204. Buyers have an opening, but they…

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth forecast for Q3 remained unchanged as 3.6% after the data dump this morning. In their own words:

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2026 is 3.6 percent on October 15, unchanged from October 8 after rounding. After this morning’s retail sales and inventories reports from the US Census Bureau, an increase in the nowcast of third-quarter annualized real personal consumption expenditures growth from 3.4 percent to 3.6 percent was partly offset by a decrease in the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to third-quarter GDP growth from 1.96 percentage points to 1.87 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, October 20.…