Headlines:
- Ethereum extends losses after the US CPI as risk sentiment deteriorates further. What’s next?
- Why do altcoins crash so much harder than Bitcoin?
- Oil remains supported amid persistent Middle East tensions as US weighs using “Mother of All Bombs”
- Bitcoin sinks after the US CPI as markets get increasingly worried about the growth outlook
- US inflation worries aren’t over yet as PPI and retail sales pose fresh risks for markets
- Gold whipsaws after US CPI as data falls short of bringing an October rate hike back into play
- European stock market open: Equities under pressure as Wall Street selloff weighs on sentiment
- France inflation rises sharply in September as price pressures add to ECB rate hike dilemma
- Macro pulse: Treasury yields may be falling for now, but borrowing costs are still painfully high
- What are the main events for today?
- FX option expiries for 15 October 10am New York cut
- Chart of the day: Gold rebounds as dollar and yields fall, but $4,200 remains a major hurdle
- US stocks might have a bigger problem than just hotter inflation
Markets:
-
WTI crude oil up 0.04% to $95.08
-
Gold up 1.22% to $4,154
-
EUR leads, AUD lags
-
S&P 500 down -0.31% to 7,746
-
US 10y Treasury yield down 11 bps to 5.08%
-
Bitcoin down -0.86% to $80,856
It’s been another relatively quiet session with no major news or economic data releases. On the economic data front, the highlight of the session was the monthly UK GDP report which beat expectations across the board. The data didn’t change much, though, as it just reinforced the expectations for a BoE rate hike in November, which was already priced in.
We also had BoE’s Greene and BoE’s Breeden speaking, with the former continuing to push for rate hikes to avoid second-round effect, while the latter pointing to soft labour market conditions as basis for a more patient approach in absence of clear second-round effects. ECB members have also been pointing to lack of second-round effects as a reason to be less aggressive on further tightening.
On the markets side, crude oil
continues to edge higher amid lack of improvements in the Middle East. As a
reminder, the Saudi Arabia-Houthis conflict has intensified recently with the Houthis attacking many Saudi targets,
including Riyadh’s international airport and the Aramco headquarters complex in
Dhahran. They have
threatened further attacks on airports and energy infrastructure, while
Saudi-backed forces are fighting the Houthis inside Yemen.
Commercial
shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues to be disrupted. Two vessels sank recently after being hit by Iranian
forces. Iran’s leadership said it will continue fighting
until the US accepts its demands.
Finally, Reuters
reported today that, according to CNN, the US military has developed contingency plans that could
include using the MOAB bomb(the largest
non-nuclear bomb) against Iranian energy infrastructure or nuclear-related
sites if Trump orders renewed combat operations. Reuters added it
could not independently verify the report, and this is just contingency
planning, not confirmation that the bomb will be used.
Most other markets have been consolidating after yesterday’s US CPI shock. The higher than expected US Core CPI triggered a selloff in risk assets, but the
minor changes in rate hike expectations and the dovish repricing further out
the curve, suggest the market might be starting to get more concerned about the
growth outlook.
It’s interesting that stocks, copper, crypto, the US dollar and yields
are all trading lower today, while gold has regained all the losses. It feels
more like a stagflationary environment where risk assets and the US dollar
generally underperform, while gold outperforms.
Looking ahead, we have the Flash PMIs, the FOMC, the US-Iran
negotiations and the US midterm elections as key catalysts. If the economic data
starts pointing to deteriorating economic conditions, then we could see the
market getting increasingly worried about growth. What could drastically change the outlook would be an end to the US-Iran war, as that would immediately improve the
growth outlook.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.