Market News

Recent key news affecting oil prices today

Crude markets remain anchored near multi-month highs as persistent geopolitical friction and logistics bottlenecks redefine energy risk premia.

With Middle East shipping disruptions complicating global supply lines, Morgan Stanley raised its Brent forecast to $105 as costly freight favors short-haul crude, highlighting how exorbitant tanker rates are forcing long-haul barrels from West Africa and the U.S. to price at steep discounts into Northwest Europe. While former President Donald Trump voiced optimism at an Alaska rally, pledging cheaper energy and declaring that Taiwan agreed to buy 30% of Alaska pipeline gas alongside South Korea, deferred WTI and Brent strips for 2027 continue to trade…

Earnings season is upon us again. And as is usually the case, Wall Street's biggest banks are the ones to get the ball rolling as they did yesterday. We had the likes of JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Citi and Wells Fargo report their latest quarterly results and it was a mixed bag to say the least.

Goldman Sachs and Citi delivered solid earnings beats, while JP Morgan disappointed with a rare earnings miss. Meanwhile, Wells Fargo fell short on revenue expectations, despite reporting better-than-expected profits.

Having said that, we're still talking about some of the biggest banks in the world making billions of dollars in profits every quarter regardless. So, that surely must mean the US economy is doing pretty well, no? Well, not necessarily.

US Stocks Decline as Bank Earnings Disappoint – Markets Await Key CPI Data

US equity markets finished lower yesterday as investors digested a mixed set of earnings reports from major US banks, although stocks recovered some ground towards the end of the session following comments from Federal Reserve official John Williams. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.35% to close at 51,670, while the S&P 500 edged 0.02% lower to finish at 7,805. The Nasdaq also lost ground, falling 0.15% to close at 27,204. Williams provided some support for investor sentiment after indicating that he did not anticipate further interest rate increases in 2027, although he maintained that another hike before the end of 2026 would be appropriate.

US…

IC – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 14 October 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

U.S. markets remained cautious ahead of Wednesday’s inflation report. Fed comments kept interest-rate expectations in focus, while mixed bank earnings and weaker semiconductor shares weighed on stocks. Oil prices remained sensitive to Middle East supply risks and potential Russian fuel exports.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian traders should focus on China’s inflation data, rising oil prices, and the U.S. CPI release later today. Asian stocks have recovered slightly, but Middle East tensions and inflation worries are keeping markets cautious. A hotter U.S. inflation reading could strengthen the USD, pressure gold, and weigh on Asian…

Gold got once again hit by another jump in oil prices, with WTI reaching a new weekly high yesterday.

The Houthis are intensifying attacks on Saudi Arabia, leading to renewed supply disruption risks. The negotiations between the US and Iran remain at a stalemate, and there isn’t any energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine as Russia reportedly struck an oil facility in western Ukraine.

The Middle East crisis and lack of some relief from the Russian front, has been keeping oil prices supported and limiting the upside in gold due to persistent inflationary pressures and hawkish expectations.

Today, all eyes will be on the US CPI report. The focus will be mainly on the core m/m…

Introduction

Momentum indicators help traders understand market direction. In this article, Elev8 broker looks at various momentum indicators, including the 14-week Relative Strength Index (RSI), overextension analysis, and traders' positioning as per the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) Commitments of Traders (COT) report. However, it is not always clear what is behind the momentum. To give traders the full picture, Elev8 broker will outline the fundamental developments and real-world events currently shaping FX pairs and commodities. 

Momentum indicators

The chart below shows major currencies and commodities ranking across various momentum indicators. Dark…

European equities are kick starting the day on a more positive note, with major indices posting modest gains at the open. Here's a snapshot of how things are playing out to start the day:

• Eurostoxx +0.6%
• Germany DAX +0.4%
• France CAC 40 +0.5%
• UK FTSE +0.2%
• Spain IBEX +0.5%
• Italy FTSE MIB +0.3%

It's a decent start with the gains being fairly broad-based across the region. That carries over the steadier showing from yesterday as investors continue to take a bit of a breather after having dealt with surging bond yields and growing fiscal risks in France over the past few weeks.

Having said that, I wouldn't read too much into the early gains just yet. There's a much bigger event on the calendar today, and that's the US CPI report for September.

With…

• Spain September final CPI +4.9% vs +4.9% y/y prelim
• Prior +4.3%
• Spain September final HICP +5.0% vs +5.0% y/y prelim
• Prior +4.6%
• Spain September core CPI +3.1% y/y
• Prior +2.9%

The final report confirms another uncomfortable rise in Spanish inflation in September, with headline annual inflation rising to 4.9% from 4.3% in August. The harmonised reading also jumps further to clip the 5% mark, the highest since February 2023.

The main culprit is of course the surge in energy prices, largely stemming from the Middle East conflict. But when looking at core prices, that is where the latest Spanish figures become a little more troubling.

Core annual inflation climbed to 3.1% in September from 2.9% previously. And that is the highest level since March…

The $4,200 mark has been a key battleground for gold in the past two weeks, and it could once again be part of the trading action today. The precious metal will face up against a big test from the US CPI report, with the inflation numbers having the potential to draw a broader market reaction that could impact gold.

While there are watchful eyes on the figure level, there's a little more to the technical picture than just that.

Looking at the hourly chart:

Gold's advance from Friday last week has stalled around the $4,200 to $4,220 region before steadying itself closer to $4,150-60 levels in the latest pullback. That coincides with the 100-hour (red line) and 200-hour (blue line) moving averages, which are now converging around the same…

• Germany September wholesale prices +1.9% m/m
• Prior +0.9%
• Germany September wholesale prices +8.7% y/y
• Prior +6.8%

The annual estimate indicates that German wholesale prices are 8.7% higher in September this year compared to the same month a year ago. That marks the highest annual price jump since February 2023 and will add to inflation concerns in the German economy.

Much of the price jump this year can be attributed to the Middle East conflict, which resulted in higher wholesale prices of energy products and intermediate goods such as metals, in particular.

Looking at the details, the main cause of the annual increase in wholesale prices is tied to the increase in the prices of mineral oil products, with prices up 48.8% from September…

There aren't any major expiry levels to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below.

There are a couple of expiry levels that stand out but they are not anywhere near the spot level to have much of an influence. The ones for EUR/USD at 1.1290, USD/JPY at 159.00, and USD/CAD at 1.4250 are notable, but they are a fairly sizable distance away from the spot price. As such, the expiries should not exert much gravitational pull on price action unless we see a move towards the strike prices.

The bigger consideration and focus today is the US CPI report. That is likely to keep traders more pensive in the lead up to the data release, keeping major currencies and dollar sentiment more muted in the session ahead.

Broader markets will also be…

There's a lot riding on the US CPI report later today, especially with Treasury yields having threatened multi-decade highs over the past week. Going into the report, the consensus is that headline inflation is going to look rather ugly. The question now though is whether markets will actually care all that much.

Headline inflation is expected to rise by 0.6% on the month, taking the annual estimate to 3.6%. It is anticipated that much of the rise will be driven by higher gasoline prices amid the ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Looking to core inflation, that is expected to rise by a more modest 0.2% on the month and 2.5% annually.

Now, the Fed can arguably afford to look past a temporary spike in energy prices. And that is something I…