Market News

• China factory inflation hits 5%, fastest in over four years, as CPI lags at 0.9%
• Lagarde: no second-round effects yet, but ECB can’t wait until they are in full view
• Goldman Sachs says RBA minutes lower bar for November hike, with three hawkish signals
• Australia’s biggest planned IPO in 30 years pulled as AI infrastructure appetite cools
• China September CPI 0.9% y/y (expected 1%, prior 0.8%)
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.7249 (vs. estimate at 6.6922)
• Trump says Taiwan to buy 30% of Alaska pipeline gas, again predicts lower oil prices
• Singapore: MAS could tighten again in 2027 if inflation risks materialise, says ANZ
• How Singapore’s monetary policy works: the S$NEER band explained in three levers
• Singapore’s MAS holds policy steady,…

The gap between surging factory prices and subdued consumer inflation points to an oil-driven cost shock, not demand-led inflation. That makes crude and commodity prices the main driver of China’s price data for now. China moving from exporting disinflation to passing on higher costs adds to global goods-price pressure, which is unwelcome for central banks already worried about energy-driven inflation, including the Fed and ECB. Margins are the risk at home: manufacturers facing steep input costs but limited pricing power at the consumer end could see profits squeezed. Soft core inflation keeps room for further Chinese policy support, but the PPI jump complicates the case for aggressive easing. The muted equity reaction suggests investors…

Lagarde’s message leans hawkish at the margin. A central bank that will act on early hints, without waiting for clear evidence of second-round effects, could move sooner than markets expect if wage settlements firm. That supports front-end European yields and the euro on a relative basis. Energy is the key transmission channel. With inflation driven mainly by energy prices, a further jump in oil or gas from Gulf escalation would raise the odds of pre-emptive tightening, making crude and TTF gas direct inputs into ECB pricing. Her comments on France offer no backstop signal, so the French-German yield spread remains exposed to Paris’s budget politics.

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Lagarde sees no wage-price spiral yet, but she has made clear the ECB will act on the…

Goldman’s read raises the risk that the next RBA move comes sooner than its own base case. That leaves the third-quarter CPI release as the main event for the Australian dollar and short-dated bond yields. The minutes’ emphasis on domestic capacity shifts the focus from energy pass-through to underlying inflation, so even a moderate headline print could carry hawkish weight if services and core measures stay firm. Oil still matters at the margin: the minutes noted that domestic fuel prices were running well above the RBA’s August assumptions, and a renewed jump in crude tied to the Iran war would strengthen the case for tightening. Market pricing had already leaned toward further hikes before the September decision, so a hot CPI reading…

The pullback in listings is a warning sign for the most capital-hungry corner of the AI trade. Developers that depend on fresh equity and debt to build face higher funding costs and tougher scrutiny of their pipelines. That is most negative for neocloud firms and newer developers without completed projects, which already showed in a weeklong slide in CoreWeave and Nebius. Established operators and chipmakers with proven demand are less exposed, but memory-chip weakness shows sentiment is fragile. Higher Treasury yields, driven partly by energy-led inflation, are the macro thread running through it, so a softer inflation backdrop would help reopen the window. Investors reserving capital for the Anthropic and OpenAI listings could also…

Producer Price Index (YoY) 5%

• expected 4.5%, prior 3.8%
• PPI +1.2% m/m (prior 0.4%)

Consumer Price Index (MoM) 0.2%

• expected 0.3%, prior 0.4%

Consumer Price Index (YoY) 0.9%

• expected 1.0%, prior 0.8%

Earlier:

• Economic and event calendar in Asia Wednesday, October 14, 2026 - China inflation data

Just the data this post, I'll have more to come on this separately - details and implications etc. 

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here on this.

• injects 56bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos at 1.4%, unchnaged rate

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Oil’s reaction to Trump’s repeated price forecasts has faded. The market’s own verdict shows in deferred contracts, where WTI and Brent strips for 2027 have recently set records, a sign that traders are pricing a lasting supply squeeze, not a swift resolution. The Alaska deals matter more for gas than oil. Asian buyers locking in North American supply away from the Gulf supports the case for diversification, but the volumes are years away and do nothing for this winter’s tight LNG market. A credible ceasefire would still trigger a sharp drop in crude, so headline risk cuts both ways, but traders are likely to need concrete steps, not statements, before pricing it.

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Trump brought Asian money to Alaska LNG, but his latest promise of…

Friday’s upcoming MSCI decision on whether to exclude companies like Strategy from its global indices is the nearest catalyst, since an exclusion could trigger passive selling of the shares even if Saylor plays down its importance. Strategy’s new willingness to sell Bitcoin as well as buy it removes the assumption that the largest corporate holder is a one-way buyer, adding a potential source of supply in weaker markets. On the positive side, regulatory guidance from US agencies has eased a key overhang. Bitcoin still has to compete for capital with AI stocks and with Treasury yields that have risen sharply this year, so a turn lower in yields after US inflation data would be the clearest macro tailwind for his $100,000 call.

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Saylor is…

ANZ’s view tempers any dovish reading of Wednesday’s surprise hold. If markets come to see it as a pause within a tightening cycle, any Singapore dollar weakness against its trading partners could prove limited. The bar for a further move now appears to be evidence that inflation risks are materialising, which puts imported energy costs at the centre of the outlook. A renewed surge in oil or refined product prices tied to Gulf escalation would be the most likely trigger for MAS to steepen the slope of its policy band again. Easing in crude would strengthen the case for an extended hold.

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ANZ reads the MAS hold as a breather, not a turning point: the earlier tightenings need time to work, but the door to more remains open.

Summary:

• ANZ, one…

How Singapore’s monetary policy works: the S$NEER band explained in three levers

Most central banks fight inflation by raising or cutting interest rates. Singapore does it differently. The Monetary Authority of Singapore steers the economy by managing the value of the Singapore dollar against a basket of its trading partners’ currencies. When MAS “tightens,” it lets the currency strengthen faster, which makes imports cheaper and cools inflation. When it “eases,” it slows or reverses that appreciation.

That is why Wednesday’s decision to hold policy steady was framed entirely in terms of an exchange rate band, with no mention of an interest rate.

Why Singapore uses the exchange rate

Singapore is one of the most open economies in the world. It…

Still to come from China:

• Economic and event calendar in Asia Wednesday, October 14, 2026 - China inflation data

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The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. 

• Goldman Sachs says yuan undervalued by up to 25% and markets underestimate how far it can rise

China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore…