Market News

The main focus in markets this week will be on the US CPI report due Wednesday, 14 October. The inflation numbers for September will be heavily scrutinised as traders and investors are very much still caught in trying to weigh the inflation outlook as well as risks of the Fed raising interest rates further. And all of that is made even more crucial as Treasury yields are threatening multi-decade highs in the past week or so.

The usual expectation is that a hotter-than-expected inflation report will be bad news for stocks. But what if we actually get that but Wall Street refuses to play ball and stocks do not happen to fall? That is a rather interesting scenario, no?

To start, let's just consider what the typical market reaction should be.…

Gold buyers are making another attempt to decisively get above the $4,200 level to start the new week. The precious metal touched a high of $4,217 earlier in Asia trading but is now trickling back lower to the figure level again, which has been a key point of contention since last week already.

The region around $4,200-20 has been causing quite a bit of frustration for buyers, so I wouldn't say that gold has convinced of any break to the upside just yet. Having said that, there are at least some encouraging signs for buyers since the end of last week.

Looking at the hourly chart, gold had managed to climb above both its 100-hour (red line) and 200-hour (blue line) moving averages on Friday and is sticking with that for now. That is a…

It's earnings season again and as is always the case, the big banks on Wall Street will be the ones to kick start proceedings starting tomorrow.

While much of the usual focus will be on whether the banks manage to beat earnings expectations, there is perhaps a more important story running in the background this time around. That being how the recent surge in Treasury yields is impacting the banking sector and, by extension, the broader US economy.

Now, higher interest rates and yields aren't necessarily a bad thing for banks to begin with. They can charge more interest on loans and that potentially means fatter margins to work with in trying to earn more money. However, there's also the other side of the equation to be mindful about.

Higher…

There aren't any major expiries to contend with today, with the full list seen below.

There is just a measly one for EUR/USD at the 1.1225 level and while sitting roughly 15 pips above the spot price, the relatively small size of the expiries means they are unlikely to exert much influence on price action.

With it being a partial US market holiday, it isn't all too surprising to see a lack of options interest on days like these. As a reminder, the US bond market is closed today but the stock market will remain open. In any case, thinner liquidity conditions will make things more tricky to navigate as such. That could exacerbate price movements amid a lack of buying and selling flows in the sessions ahead.

But looking at the big picture mood,…

Q3 earnings season in Wall Street will kick off in earnest this week, as the big banks will begin reporting their quarterly results starting tomorrow. While that will hog some of the spotlight in the stock market, the AI boom continues to be one of the more closely watched themes. As such, I would pick TSMC as the stock to pay attention to in terms of earnings releases in the days ahead.

The big question now among investors with regards to the AI boom is whether all the spending on chips and data centers can keep going.

So, TSMC might offer a better idea of that when they report their earnings on Thursday, 15 October. As a reminder, TSMC is one of the biggest chip manufacturers in the world and plays a crucial role in the AI supply chain.…

Just a heads up as we get into the new week that today is a US market holiday in observance of Columbus Day. While Wall Street may be open for business, the bond market will be closed.

As such, traders will be missing a key piece of the puzzle to start the week given how Treasury yields have been dictating broader market sentiment as of late. The surge higher in long-end yields especially have been keeping stocks in check, adding to investor concerns over inflation risks and also the Fed outlook.

So without that as a potential barometer today, things could get a little tricky.

Sure, traders could still extrapolate how the bond market might react given the push up in oil prices amid geopolitical tensions. A missile attack on Riyadh's…

• Preview: TSMC tipped for sixth straight record quarter, with profit seen up 65% on AI demand
• Early Ethereum Foundation ETH recipients move $11M to Kraken: what the data shows
• Indian Rupee set for 1% rally as RBI curbs hedging rush that hit a record $77 billion
• People’s Bank of China sets yuan reference rate at 6.7313 (vs. estimate at 6.6977)
• Gold edges up in Asia on the energy truce narrative, that looks like a VERY shaky support
• China’s growth stocks lose their shine as CICC tilts towards dividend payers
• MUFG: US CPI seen at 3.6%, core must surprise to revive an October Fed hike
• Deutsche Bank’s CEO warns wins for AfD and Left in 3 state votes risk deterring investors
• UBS: AI demand holds firm, with hyperscaler cloud growth tipped to hit 58%
• <a href="https://investinglive.com/news/weeeknd-eu-plans-350-000-annual-cap-on-chinese-hybrids-after-beijing-agrees-16-point-deal"…

●         Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 0.20%, Shanghai Composite down 1.21% Hang Seng up 0.96% ASX up 0.56%

●        Commodities : Gold at $4,203.65 (1.12%) Silver at $60.480 (1.77%), Brent Oil at 102.84 (-1.38), WTI Oil at 90.36 (-1.24%)

●        Rates : US 10-year yield at 5.219, UK 10-year yield at 5.4852, Germany 10-year yield at 3.4937

●        (USD)  Unemployment Claims

       197K to 200K  expected

U.S. stock futures were little changed on Thursday evening after a weaker-than-expected revenue figure from OpenAI raised concerns about the artificial intelligence sector’s growth prospects.

S&P 500 futures edged up 0.09%, while Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.05%.…

For Asian equities, TSMC’s results are a bellwether for the whole AI supply chain, and its weight in Taiwan’s benchmark means the guidance will likely move the index as much as the profit figure. A raise to the low-to-mid 40% range for full-year revenue growth, as Morgan Stanley expects, would reinforce the AI trade across chipmakers, server builders and equipment suppliers, while any caution on fourth-quarter demand would hit a richly valued sector. Comments on capex and a possible Texas expansion will feed into US chip-equipment names. With TSMC’s shares broadly matching the market’s rally this year, the bar for a positive reaction is high.

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TSMC keeps printing records; Thursday is about whether its guidance can keep pace with what…

The rupee’s weakness is largely an energy story: high crude prices have swollen India’s import bill and dollar demand, and the RBI’s special window for oil marketing companies is an admission that fuel purchases are a core source of pressure. That makes the rally vulnerable to any renewed rise in crude, including from weekend attacks on Saudi infrastructure. Higher hedging costs should ease near-term dollar buying and pull forward premiums lower, offering some support to Asian currencies more broadly. Sustained gains likely depend on foreign equity outflows slowing, since administrative curbs have historically offered only temporary relief.

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The RBI has made it more expensive to bet against the rupee, but it can’t make oil any cheaper.

Early Ethereum Foundation ETH recipients move $11M to Kraken: what the data shows

Two wallets that received Ether (ETH) from an early Ethereum Foundation distribution sent 4,393 ETH, worth about $11.1 million, to the Kraken exchange on Monday, according to on-chain tracker Lookonchain. The transfers prompted questions on social media about whether the Foundation is selling again. The wallet history on Arkham Intelligence supports a more cautious reading: the coins are two steps removed from the Foundation, and an exchange deposit is not the same as a sale.

What the wallet trail shows

Arkham data shows the Ethereum Foundation sent 59,751 ETH to an intermediary address about a decade ago, when ETH traded near $0.90. That address later split…

For China’s equity markets, CICC’s call points to continued rotation from high-flying growth names on the ChiNext and STAR boards towards dividend-paying stocks, a group typically dominated by banks, utilities, energy and telecom companies. That could support relative strength in dividend indexes even if the broader market stays volatile. The trigger points are largely external: US inflation data and Fed signals this week bear on the overseas liquidity concerns CICC cites, while Middle East escalation and doubts over AI spending would weigh most on the technology half of the trade. A strong run of global chip earnings could revive appetite for growth names and narrow the case for defensive positioning.

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Earlier:

• PBOC is expected to set…