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For gold, the key channel in this conflict has been oil rather than safe-haven demand: escalation has lifted energy prices and Fed hike expectations, pushing up yields and the dollar and weighing on bullion. On that logic, a credible energy truce would be supportive, but this one was disputed within hours and has not been confirmed by Moscow, so a rally built on it rests on weak foundations. A breakdown would likely put Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries back in play, tightening diesel supply and reinforcing the inflation pressure that has hurt gold. Wednesday’s US CPI and Gulf attacks, which move oil far more, are the stronger drivers.

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Gold’s logic in this war is simple: lower oil helps it, so a truce should too, but not one that…

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here on this.

• PBoC injects 50bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos today, rate unchanged at 1.4%

For the DAX, Sewing’s remarks are unlikely to move the index on their own, since state governments do not set federal economic policy and the index is dominated by global exporters whose earnings depend more on world demand than on domestic politics. The more direct exposure is in German residential property stocks, where the Left Party’s expropriation pledge in Berlin adds headline risk to listed landlords with large holdings in the capital. Over time, a perception of rising political risk could add to the discount investors already apply to German assets, making the pace of Merz’s reforms a more important driver for domestically focused DAX and MDAX names.

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Germany’s top banker is warning that investors don’t read the fine print of…

The People’s Bank of China publishes its daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time the previous evening), and the number has become one of the most closely followed signals in Asian currency markets. Its importance has grown over the past month as Beijing has moved from holding back the yuan’s rise to steering it gradually higher.

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Earlier:

• Weeeknd: EU plans 350,000 annual cap on Chinese hybrids after Beijing agrees 16-point deal

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Under China’s managed float, the onshore yuan may trade up to 2% either side of the midpoint set each morning. The central bank arrives at that midpoint by weighing the previous session’s close, moves in the US dollar and other major currencies, wider global FX conditions, and…

MUFG’s framing underlines that energy is almost the entire story behind rising US headline inflation since the Iran conflict began, keeping crude prices tightly linked to Fed expectations. The core reading is the trigger for rates markets: an in-line 0.2% would likely keep October hike pricing subdued and leave the dollar and Treasury yields range-bound, while a repeat of August’s 0.3% would revive bets on a back-to-back move and lift the front end. Strong retail sales on Thursday would reinforce the case that the economy can absorb tighter policy. Warsh’s comments early Friday could then reset expectations either way ahead of the October 27-28 meeting.

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Earlier:

• US CPI preview: energy set to lift inflation to 3.7%, core seen steady at 2.4%

For equities, UBS’s view supports semiconductor and hardware names into an earnings season where results, rather than narrative, are expected to drive the AI trade. The near-term test arrives quickly, with ASML reporting on Wednesday and the major cloud providers later in the month, and any shortfall against the accelerating cloud growth UBS expects would likely hit richly valued megacaps hardest. Rates add a second risk: a hot US inflation print on Wednesday that lifts Treasury yields would weigh on long-duration tech valuations regardless of fundamentals. UBS’s preference for quality and defensive tech reflects that risk of sharp swings even within a supportive backdrop.

- UBS still sees the AI boom running on real demand, but after…

For European carmakers, a hybrid quota offers some relief from lower-priced Chinese competition at a time when Volkswagen, Stellantis, Mercedes and BMW are under pressure on profits, though the cap’s generous starting size and annual increases limit how much market share it protects. Chinese brands that have leaned on hybrids to sidestep EU electric vehicle tariffs face slower European growth, with Chery among the most exposed. The bigger risk for markets is Thursday’s summit: a push by Germany and France for broader trade tools could invite retaliation, and Beijing’s control of rare earth supplies gives it leverage over the same European manufacturers the quota is meant to protect.

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Beijing has given Brussels a hybrid car quota and…

Wednesday’s report is a direct read on how far the Iran war’s energy shock is feeding into US consumer prices, and a hot energy component would reinforce the link between crude risk and Fed policy. Treasury markets are likely to trade the core number rather than the headline: a soft core would favour the front end and weigh on the dollar, while a firm one would revive October hike pricing that faded after weak payrolls. Gold would likely benefit from a soft core and lower yields. With Brent still above $100 and fresh attacks on Saudi infrastructure, energy-driven inflation risk extends well beyond this release.

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September’s CPI is set to look alarming on the surface and calm underneath, and the Fed has to decide which one to believe.

For oil, the IEA’s focus confirms that the acute shortage sits in refined products rather than crude, which points to continued support for diesel margins even as Gulf crude flows recover. The European view that the G7 deal mostly repackages March pledges matters for pricing, since it implies fewer genuinely new barrels than the 100 million headline suggests and limits any relief to tightness. Tenders and the board’s decision this week will set expectations: concrete, front-loaded diesel volumes could cap distillate cracks, while vague commitments risk leaving prices elevated. Fresh disruption to Saudi supply would add pressure to an already strained product market.

--- Seven months after its biggest-ever stock release, the IEA is still…

For the Australian dollar and front-end rates, the minutes carry more weight than usual because Bullock’s post-meeting tone was softer than the decision itself. A record that leans toward holding would support pricing for a pause and could weigh on the currency, while one that keeps further tightening clearly on the table would reinforce Westpac’s call for another move by year-end. Oil is the swing factor behind both outcomes, as the board explicitly cited Middle East pressure on fuel prices, so any renewed crude strength from Gulf attacks would harden the inflation case. An upside surprise in unemployment would sharpen the market’s focus on downside risks to growth.

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Four hikes in, the question for Australia this week is whether the…

For oil, the split between recovering volumes and stubbornly high physical prices is the key tension. Restored crude flows argue for lower benchmark prices over time, but the premium in Dated Brent shows buyers are still paying up for prompt barrels to rebuild depleted inventories, which keeps the front of the curve steeply backwardated. Refined products remain the tightest corner, supporting diesel and jet margins even as crude supply normalises. The weekend’s Houthi claims against Saudi Aramco facilities are an immediate test, since Saudi barrels have led the recovery, and any confirmed disruption would likely widen the physical premium again.

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The barrels are back, but the fear isn’t: Gulf exports have normalised while physical…

For chip stocks, the remarks reinforce that Terrafab is a long-dated threat to incumbent foundries rather than a near-term one, which limits any read-across to TSMC and Samsung while Musk’s companies keep buying their output. Intel stands to gain the most direct benefit as a joint venture partner, giving its foundry ambitions a high-profile anchor customer. For Tesla, the project adds a large, open-ended capital commitment with a multi-year payoff, a factor investors will weigh against the strategic value of securing AI chip supply. Musk’s admission on timing may help temper expectations that had run ahead of execution.

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Earlier:

• Why a few words from Elon Musk can (and did!) move a $600 billion+ chipmaker
• SpaceX just officially announced…