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For oil product, the immediate volume is modest: around 500,000 tons equals roughly 3.7 million barrels, small against global diesel trade, so the price effect rests more on what follows than on this tranche. The signal matters more for middle distillate margins, as a Russian return to export markets, alongside a pause in Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, would ease one of the tighter corners of the fuel market. Buyers may move cautiously, since US sanctions passed last month still target Russian energy revenues and contract terms remain unclear. Any confirmation of further tranches would add downside pressure to diesel cracks in Europe and Asia.

--- Moscow has turned on the diesel tap, but only partway, and on its own schedule…

Monday’s closures in Tokyo and the US cash Treasury market mean thinner liquidity across Asia and into the US session, which can exaggerate moves on weekend headlines from Saudi Arabia, Russia and Ukraine.

• Singapore, Hong Kong, Australia and New Zealand are all open though

For oil, the week links directly to inflation: energy has been the main force holding US headline CPI above 3%, so any renewed crude strength from Gulf attacks would feed expectations of further Fed tightening, while the Russian diesel deal and energy ceasefire point the other way for fuel prices. A hot CPI print would likely lift the front end of the Treasury curve and support the dollar, putting pressure on the yen. Bank results offer an early read on credit quality…

For oil, the two announcements point the same way for diesel: more Russian supply. The deal adds Russian barrels directly, while a halt to Ukrainian strikes on Russian fuel infrastructure would remove a recurring threat to the country’s refining and export capacity, a combination that would weigh on diesel margins if it holds. Traders are likely to discount both until details emerge, as the Kremlin has not publicly confirmed the truce terms and the delivery schedule rests on Trump’s own description. The broader signal is a weaker US commitment to squeezing Russian energy revenues, which erodes part of the sanctions-related risk premium in crude.

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Earlier:

• Houthi strike on Riyadh airport kills 13, group claims Aramco hits. Saudi, Iran…

For oil, the shift in targeting matters more than the airport damage: claimed strikes on two Aramco facilities and a confirmed hit on Dammam bring the conflict into the Eastern Province, the centre of Saudi crude output. With Aramco silent, traders are left to price the risk without knowing whether any production or export capacity was affected, which tends to support a geopolitical premium until damage is clarified. The timing adds pressure, as JPMorgan noted last week that the global tanker fleet is already close to full use, so any disruption to Gulf loadings or routing would land on a market with little shipping slack. The Saudi-Iranian contact is the main counterweight, and any sign of de-escalation could quickly erode that premium.

---

For oil, the note describes a market where the cost of delivery, rather than the barrel itself, is setting the marginal price. That can widen the gap between benchmark futures and what refiners actually pay, and it tends to reward freight exposure more directly than outright crude. Negative European refining margins raise the risk of run cuts, which would trim crude demand and could cap benchmark prices even while delivered costs stay high. Atlantic Basin grades moved on smaller ships carry higher per-barrel freight, a possible headwind for their competitiveness in distant markets.

The oil market has found its April again, only this time the scarce commodity is the ship, not the crude.

Summary:

• JPMorgan says delivered crude prices are back…

Early FX indications, not much change from late Friday so far

• EUR/USD 1.1189
• USD/JPY 158.26 (BTW it's a holiday in Japan on Monday, October 12, 2026)
• GBP/USD 1.3238
• USD/CHF 0.8300
• USD/CAD 1.4266
• AUD/USD 0.6979
• NZD/USD 0.5615

Alcohol stocks after the selloff: why a 70% fall is not an investment thesis

Analysis as of October 10, 2026. Share-price comparisons use U.S. regular-session closing prices through October 9, 2026, in U.S. dollars.

Alcohol stocks can look tempting after a steep selloff, but the largest fall has not produced the lowest earnings multiple in this basket. Changing drinking habits, non-alcoholic expansion and luxury spending create different prospects for different producers. Before buying the dip or considering a short, compare sustainable earnings, cash flow and the stock's response to news against its peers.

My concern is straightforward: an investor sees a stock down 60%, 70% or 80% and assumes the market has gone too far. Sometimes that…

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• JPMorgan: The G7’s 100 million barrel oil release is mostly old barrels with a new bow on it
• Broader stock indices bouncing modestly. Support near 100 hour MAs held yesterday
• US October…

US stocks finished Friday higher across the major indices, giving buyers a stronger finish to the trading week. The Dow led the way with a 423-point gain, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.64% and the S&P 500 rose 0.59%.

Under the surface, software and cybersecurity stocks attracted buyers. Snowflake, Datadog, Palantir, and Palo Alto Networks were among the standout gainers. The semiconductor picture was more uneven, with Arm, Intel, AMD, and Super Micro Computer finishing lower despite the broader market’s advance.

For the week, the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow all finished higher. The Nasdaq extended its weekly winning streak to four, while the Dow recorded its biggest weekly percentage gain since the week ended August 7.

The…

Next week starts quietly, but it does not stay that way.

The economic calendar gets going on Wednesday with the US CPI report, followed by Australian employment that evening. Thursday brings UK GDP before a busy 8:30 AM window in the US, with producer prices, retail sales, jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index all released at the same time.

For traders, the question is how those reports change expectations for growth, inflation and interest rates. Are price pressures accelerating? Is the consumer still spending? Are higher borrowing costs starting to slow activity?

The answers could provide the next shove for the dollar, yields and stocks.

All times below are US Eastern. Forecasts and previous readings reflect the…

It’s Friday. TGIF to all!

To close out the week, I’m taking a look at the Magnificent 7. Admittedly, some are looking a little less “magnificent” these days, but the name will likely stick—much like FANG before it.

In the video, I look at each stock using the same technical tools and the same hourly chart timeframe. From there, I answer one question: Are the technicals more bullish or more bearish?

Where is support? Where is resistance? Are buyers in control, or do sellers have the upper hand? What would change the bias?

There’s a game-show feel, but each answer comes with a technical reason. The price action and the tools tell the story.

It’s a little education and a little fun as we head into the weekend.

So let’s play “More Bullish or More…

It wasn't a big week in financial markets. When you upwrap it, Fed pricing has been flat and major indexes chopped sideways. The Iran war continues with the usual threats, but we did get a promise from Trump not to attack before the midterms. How credible that promise is might be up for debate. Later today we will get a Hurricane Isaias hitting the US coast, and it's currently a Category 3 storm. 

Economic data was mixed but continues to point to worsening sentiment and rising price pressures but an overall strong economy, particularly for consumer spending.

What I will take away from this week is a particular market reaction; how the FX market moved on the reports of the undershoot of OpenAI revenues. Yesterday, an FT report briefly…