Market News

It was not a good day for the broader U.S. stock indices, although the Dow and Russell 2000 managed to close modestly higher.

The S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 opened lower, tried to rebound around midday, and then fell sharply in the afternoon as traders reacted to reports of OpenAI revenue weakness. Buyers had their shot on the rebound. By the afternoon, sellers had taken back control.

Even a move lower in Treasury yields failed to provide relief. The concern was a potential chink in the armor of the AI growth story, with selling spreading across chipmakers, AI infrastructure companies and related technology shares.

U.S. stock market closes

• Dow Industrial Average: +52.01 points, or +0.10%, at 51,237.13.

• S&P 500: −36.30 points, or…

Airlines will be in focus on Friday as we find out if  US consumers can complain about prices and book flights. Airline stocks have been surprisingly strong preformers this year despite a heavy headwind from rising fuel costs and interest rates.

The question heading into Delta’s third-quarter earnings report on Friday, October 9, before the opening bell is whether the consumer continuse to remain strong. The conference call comes at 10 am ET, and that’s where I’ll be listening for clues about how much more consumers are willing to pay.

Summer travel is behind us but Boomers are increasingly traveling in the shoulder seasons and corporate demand is reportedly strong. What matters now is whether demand holds through the holidays and whether…

The USDCAD sellers are scoring some short-term victories.

First, the price stalled against a topside trendline at session highs both yesterday and again today. Sellers leaned against that resistance and pushed the pair back below its 100-hour moving average at 1.42488. That break gave sellers another reason to probe the downside.

The price is now attempting to break below the 200-hour moving average at 1.4227. Getting below—and staying below—that level would strengthen the bearish bias and open the door for a move toward the swing support area surrounding 1.4200.

Sellers are making progress, but they still have work to do. After the trend move run-up from the September 8 low, giving up on the bullish trend requires proof (more…

The S&P and Nasdaq Composite broke to new all-time highs earlier this week. Buyers had their shot to build on those breakouts. Instead, both indices have fallen back below their prior high swing areas, giving sellers more control in the short term.

Those old highs are now risk-defining levels again. Stay below them, and the bias is more bearish. Recover above them and hold, and the failed-breakout pressure begins to ease.

The downside moves have also brought the 100-hour moving averages into play. That gives buyers a place to lean, but they need to hold support and build a recovery.

• S&P 500: The index has moved back below its former high swing area between 7,771 and 7,815. That area is now overhead resistance and risk for sellers. Staying…

Stock market near record highs, but sector rotation and earnings reactions suggest caution

October 8, 2026 | U.S. stock market analysis

The S&P 500 is trading near record highs, but beneath the surface, investors are becoming more selective. Utilities are attracting fresh capital, Financials are losing support, and early earnings reactions suggest that disappointing results can trigger particularly sharp declines. With major U.S. banks about to report, the question is whether this represents a healthy rotation or an early warning of broader market weakness.

For equity traders and longer-term investors, the evidence does not yet justify a blanket bearish conclusion. But it does suggest that choosing which risks to own may matter more than…

• The economy is pretty strong right now, best thing Fed can do is lower inflation
• Contacts mostly worried about inflation, does not see job market worries
• Current level of inflation requires Fed to think about rate increases
• Goes into all meetings with an open mind
• To bring inflation back to target more monetary policy firming will be required
• Market inflation expectations remain anchored, doesn’t see Fed credibility questioned
• Nominal yields rising because real yields rising in part due to rate expectations
• There is a risk consumer vigor could wane
• Job market is overall balanced and stable, no need to cool job market to get inflation down

St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem says more monetary policy firming will be required to bring inflation…

A report saying that OpenAI's revenue is $20 billion less than previously signalled is upending the market, calling into question the insane AI (or SI if I don't want to be an enemy of the state) spending. 

That's a big miss on revenues and if OpenAI isn't hitting targets, then it's not likely that anyone is. The high competition in the space and easy ability to switch models makes the economics tough and that's always been the bear case. Now that some of the numbers are hitting, the selling is intensifying in the Nasdaq.

CNBC is also out with a report on the original report that says there are 'nuances' involved in the $20 billion number but that it's accurate. With all the lending and vendor financing ongoing between the model-makers and…

According to Arab sources (unverified) there have been several severe explosions in the Strait of Hormuz.

A tanker was targeted according to the source.

Geopolitical risk from the Middle East remains a problem for traders.

US stocks have reversed and moved back to the downside with the NASDAQ index testing the low of the old swing area highs between 27190 and 27288. The low price just reach 27210. For the S&P index it has fallen below its previous high swing area at 7771.48. The currently trades at 7756.29.

• High yield: 5.618%

• WI level at the time of the auction: 5.617%

• Tail: 0.1 basis point vs the average of -0.1 basis point

• Bid to cover: 2.54X vs the average of 2.41X

• Directs: 20.89% vs the average of 20.6%

• Indirects: 72.32% vs the average of 69.1%

• Dealers: 6.79% vs the average of 10.3%

Auction grade: B

Overall, a solid auction. The high yield came in slightly above the WI level, producing a small tail instead of the average stop-through. However, the demand measures were stronger. Bid to cover exceeded its average, indirect demand was above average, and direct participation was marginally higher. Dealers were left with considerably less supply than usual. The small tail takes a little shine off the result, but the stronger demand supports an…

In the video above, I take a look at the S&P and Nasdaq Composite from a technical perspective, focusing on the old highs that now help define risk. Holding those areas keeps the buyers in the game. Breaking below them—and staying below—would give sellers more control.

Earlier this week, both indices extended to new all-time highs:

• S&P: The index broke above its swing area between 7771 and 7815.54, reaching a record high of 7844.52.

• Nasdaq Composite: The index moved above its June and September highs between 27190 and 27288. Tuesday’s advance reached 27722.75, near a topside trendline.

Those breaks were bullish developments. You cannot ignore new all-time highs. However, the selling yesterday and today raises an important question: Can buyers…

President Trump in a TruthSocial post says the

• U.S. is having productive discussions with Iran and will not attack the country before the November 3 midterm elections.

In the statement, Trump says the blockade will remain in full force and reiterates that Iran will not be allowed to have a nuclear weapon. He also claims 22 million barrels of oil flowed through the Strait of Hormuz last night, with none coming from or going to Iran.

For oil traders, the pledge has eased concerns about an imminent attack and weigh on the geopolitical risk premium. The blockade, however, remains a source of tension.

Nevertheless, the price has pushed lower and away from the swing area between $92.29 and $93.48 as outlined in the earlier video. Those traders…

Do you believe what you see?

In the video above, I look at the patterns in gold’s price action and explain how recognizing those patterns can help you anticipate a trade, define your risk, and judge who has control.

Last week, I discussed the importance of believing in something as a trader. For me, that includes the 100- and 200-hour moving averages. They give me consistent references for judging the bias and defining risk.

You can re-watch that video here: You have to believe in something: Why I trust the 100 and 200 moving averages.

Connected to believing is seeing.

Children believe in Santa Claus because they see him, and the story around him reinforces that belief.

In trading, I have my own version of “seeing Santa Claus.” It happens when…