Market News

• Prior was 3.7%

This isn't a surprise after the downgrade to the wholesale inventories data released earlier today. The next update ont his metric comes in a week but we're getting closer to the first release of Q3 GDP.

The report said:

"The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2026 is 3.6 percent on October 8, down from 3.7 percent on October 6. After this morning’s wholesale trade report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to third-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 2.07 percentage points to 1.98 percentage points."

That number shows that inventories are doing much of the heavy lifting for Q3.

For background, the Atlanta Fed’s…

An investor who decides silver deserves a place in the portfolio usually reaches for the miners first. That is understandable: a mining company files accounts, reports reserves and produces the cash flow statements that fundamental analysis is built around. The metal itself offers none of that. But the two exposures are not interchangeable, and treating a silver equity as a proxy for silver is one of the more common category errors in the sector.

A miner's revenue line does start with the silver price, so the correlation is real. What sits between that revenue line and the share price is an operating business: a cost base, a reserve grade, a permitting…

To be successful as a trader, you need to find opportunities to “risk a little to make more than a little.” That starts with trade location.

Entering near a well-defined technical level gives you a reference for managing the trade. It can reduce your risk, help reduce your fear, and put you in a position where the potential profit is greater than the amount you are prepared to lose.

Does the level always hold? No.

You might sell against a swing area, only to see the price break above it. You might buy against support, only to see the price break below it. But if you have planned the trade, you know what would invalidate your idea.

You define your risk. You limit your risk. You accept your risk.

If the area holds and the price moves away from…

• Prior was +1.3%
• Wholesale sales +1.8% vs +0.8% prior
• Inventory to sales ratio 1.18 months vs 1.19 months prior

The inventories number will lead to a slight trimming of Q3 GDP trackers.

US wholesale inventories measure the value of goods held for resale by merchant wholesalers, providing a snapshot of stockbuilding between producers and retailers or other business customers. Published monthly by the Census Bureau, the wholesale trade report includes sales and the inventories-to-sales ratio. An advance inventory estimate arrives earlier, giving economists an initial input for GDP forecasts.

The headline figure is the monthly percentage change in seasonally adjusted inventories. A rise is not automatically positive: businesses may be stocking up…

Bitcoin has fallen to a new session low at $81,848, bringing the price closer to the bottom of the recent swing area between $81,517 and $82,833.

This is an area where traders should pay attention. The sellers have pushed the price lower, but they are now approaching a level where buyers can lean against support and define their risk. For sellers, a break below that support would give them another reason to push.

Both sides have a reference point. That makes this area a battle zone.

Buyers have a level to lean against

For buyers looking for a bounce, the lower end of the swing area at $81,517 is the key reference. Hold above it, and there is an opportunity for a rotation higher.

A buyer leaning against that level could allow some room below…

USDT flow in 2026 still concentrates on two rails – Tron and Ethereum. That's not really a technology debate anymore, or a matter of ecosystem loyalty. It comes down to something that shows up in exchange dashboards every day: where funds move fastest, and where moving them costs the least.

The usage pattern by now is fairly settled. Tron carries most of the routine transfer volume between exchanges, while Ethereum tends to show up when capital is being positioned for something on-chain rather than just moved from one wallet to another. None of this is theoretical – it's visible directly in trading behavior.

Key Takeaways

●       Tron (TRC-20) handles most…

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

Silver has been under heavy pressure recently as Treasury yields and the US dollar have continued to rise amid a deteriorating geopolitical backdrop and renewed strength in oil prices.

Silver could come under further pressure in the coming days if oil prices extend their gains following reports from The Atlantic that the White House asked the Pentagon to develop military options for strikes against Iranian targets, potentially before the midterm elections.

Moreover, the Pentagon has reportedly instructed the US Central Command (CENTCOM) to complete preparations for potentially resuming major combat operations, according to Axios.

No final decision has been…

• Prior week 197K

• Initial claims: 197,000 vs 200,000 expected. Prior revised to 199,000 from 197,000.
• Initial claims four-week average: 198,000, down 2,500. Prior revised to 200,500 from 200,000.
• Continuing claims: 1.716 million vs 1.708 million expected. Prior revised to 1.699 million from 1.701 million.
• Continuing claims four-week average: 1.711 million, down 12,250. Prior revised to 1.72325 million from 1.72375 million.
• Insured unemployment rate: 1.1%. Prior 1.1%.

The US weekly claims report was mixed relative to expectations, with fewer new claims than forecast but continuing claims slightly higher than expected. Initial claims fell 2,000 to 197,000 for the week ending October 3, according to the US Department of Labor. The four-week average…

• Policymakers should strengthen core financial markets so they can absorb future shocks without amplifying them
• We must strengthen the resilience of core markets
• Greater absorbtion of government debt has come with greater fragility
• When shocks become more frequent, underlying growth is weaker and the succession of shocks leads to a higher level of gov't debt
• It's much harder to use the balance sheet to cusion a severe downturn
• We are seeing volatile markets
• Market moves are some way from normal but we are not seeing illiquidity or stress

When he's talking about core markets, I take that as meaning gilts and market plumbing.

What's striking is the sudden urgency. The rising in yields has sharpened central bankers to their core roles and highlighted…

In the morning Kickstart video above, I take a look at the three major currency pairs—EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD—from a technical perspective. For each pair, I outline the bias, the risk-defining levels and the targets that would give either the buyers or sellers more control. With all three trading within 0.15% of unchanged, the focus is on what would trigger the next shove.

The bigger moves to start the North American session are in oil, bonds and stocks. Crude oil is sharply higher, Treasury yields are moving higher, and U.S. stock futures point to another lower opening.

The moves come as reports suggest President Trump is weighing renewed strikes on Iran, potentially ahead of the November midterm elections. Meanwhile, Fed Governor…

Markets:

• 10-year Treasury yields up 6 bps to 5.345%
• WTI crude up 4.1% to $92.60
• USD leads, AUD lags on the day
• Gold up 0.2% to $4,121
• European stocks lower; S&P 500 futures down 0.6%
• Bitcoin down 1% to $82,451

Once again, investors are dealing with the same old story in markets in European morning trade today.

The bond market continues to come under pressure and that is leading to a more negative risk backdrop while underpinning the dollar. At the same time, higher oil prices are only adding fuel to the fire in reigniting the "higher for longer" narrative amid worries about more persistent inflation risks.

The standout remains long-end Treasury yields, with 10-year yields rising further to above 5.34% after the brief fall in late US trading…

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

USD:

The US dollar has been supported recently despite a dovish repricing triggered by Fed’s Williams and Fed’s Jefferson comments that pushed back against expectations of a rate hike in October.

The main reason was surging Treasury yields and risk-off flows into the greenback supported also by European debt concerns. The focus has been particularly on France, where political uncertainty and concerns over the country's large fiscal deficit have pushed French government bond yields higher and widened the spread over German Bunds to its highest level since the eurozone debt crisis.

A stabilization in French spreads could allow some of the…