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Two of Ethereum's most senior researchers have warned that rapid advances in AI-driven mathematics could undermine the cryptography that protects crypto wallets, possibly much sooner than the industry has planned for. They agree on the basic precaution, using wallet addresses that have never sent a transaction. They differ on how urgently holders should act. Neither has pointed to any actual break of the cryptography, and no attack has been reported.

What happened

Ethereum Foundation researcher Justin Drake posted on X on 7 October (US time), calling on the blockchain industry to "calmly begin planning for 'bunker mode'". He recommended a "controlled mass migration" of assets to fresh addresses, starting with large, sophisticated holders.

A strong mainland open would likely revive southbound Stock Connect buying, giving Hong Kong-listed Chinese shares support after a holiday week in which they traded without mainland investors. CICC's emphasis on third-quarter results points towards companies with improving earnings rather than broad momentum, which could favour sectors that sold off before the break if their results hold up. The risk to the call is the global backdrop: higher bond yields, a Fed still leaning towards further hikes and renewed Iran escalation risk could cap any rally if overseas sentiment sours. The yuan and China-sensitive commodities such as copper may also take direction from how confidently domestic investors return.

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CICC is betting that mainland…

Precautionary shut-ins add a domestic supply squeeze to a market already pricing heavy Middle East risk, which supports US crude benchmarks while the storm's track remains uncertain. The duration of the outage is the key variable: brief shut-ins usually reverse quickly, but damage to platforms or pipelines could extend losses and tighten Gulf Coast sour crude supply. Traders will watch whether other operators follow suit and whether the storm threatens onshore refining and export terminals, which would widen the impact to fuel prices and product cracks. Natural gas markets may also react if associated gas output is curtailed.

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Yesterday:

• Add a new risk to keep oil near $100: Gulf hurricane joins Houthi strikes and Iran tensions

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With the…

China returns from holiday today:

• China markets reopen after Golden Week: five things to watch for stocks and gold

Recent headlines have claimed that Japan is replacing the United States as the world's crypto capital. The reality is more measured.Recent headlines have claimed that Japan is replacing the United States as the world's crypto capital. The reality is more measured. Japan has passed a significant law that treats Bitcoin and around 104 other crypto assets more like stocks and bonds. However, the two changes most likely to bring new money into the market, spot crypto ETFs and a lower tax rate, are not in place yet. For now, the US remains far larger.

What Japan has actually done

On 15 July, Japan's parliament gave final approval to a law moving crypto out of the Payment Services Act, which treated it mainly as a way of paying for things. Crypto…

UBS's call favours staying invested but spreading exposure. It points to consumer discretionary, financials and industrials as beneficiaries of broadening earnings, and to health care and utilities as defensive holdings with structural growth. The bullish case rests heavily on earnings outpacing valuation pressure, which leaves equities vulnerable if bond yields climb further or oil spikes on renewed Middle East conflict. For AI hardware and data centre suppliers, the forecast surge in capex supports the leadership trade, but it also concentrates risk should spending plans be scaled back. Positioning for upside alongside capital preservation strategies reflects a view that volatility is likely even if the trend holds.

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UBS argues the S&P…

Mainland equities face a catch-up risk at the open, with the holiday week bringing higher global bond yields, a Fed leaning towards further hikes and fresh Gulf supply risk, all of which argue for a cautious start. Southbound Stock Connect flows are the key swing factor for Hong Kong, where mainland buying has often cushioned sell-offs and was absent for the whole holiday. For gold, the reopening of Shanghai trading restores a major source of physical demand, and the size of the local premium will show whether Golden Week revived buying. Energy-sensitive and rate-sensitive sectors look most exposed, while any strength in holiday consumption data would support consumer names.

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Mainland investors return from a week off to find the world…

A resumption of major combat that targets Iranian energy infrastructure would hit oil from two directions: direct loss of Iranian supply and a renewed threat to Gulf shipping and Hormuz flows, which are already under strain after Wednesday's tanker attack north of Qatar. That argues for a firmer war-risk premium in crude even before any decision, with Brent particularly sensitive to headlines over the next three to four weeks. Higher oil would feed straight into the inflation concerns flagged in this week's Fed minutes, strengthening the case for further US rate hikes and supporting the dollar. Gold and other havens would likely draw support, while Israeli assets and energy-importing Asian economies look most exposed to escalation.

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The survey reinforces Japan's acute sensitivity to the Iran war: with almost all crude imports sourced from the Middle East, any further disruption to Gulf shipping (like this), such as this week's tanker attack north of Qatar, feeds directly into corporate costs and margins. That leaves energy-intensive sectors such as materials, chemicals, cement and transport most exposed if oil stays elevated, while higher fuel import bills add to pressure on the yen. A tilt towards second-half earnings downgrades could weigh on Japanese equities heading into the results season, particularly if crude stays high and the Bank of Japan keeps tightening. Concerns about the durability of AI spending point to downside risk for chip equipment and data centre…

The jump in near-term expectations lands squarely on the Fed's main stated worry and strengthens the case for another hike before year end, supporting front-end Treasury yields and the dollar. Rising expected gasoline price growth shows how energy costs are feeding household inflation psychology, which makes oil supply disruptions a more direct risk to the Fed outlook. Stable five-year expectations limit the alarm for longer-dated bonds for now. Consumers also turned less bullish on equities, with fewer expecting stock prices to be higher in a year.

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Earlier:

• ICYMI: Fed minutes: most officials see another hike by year end after unanimous rise to 3.75-4%

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American households now expect prices to rise half as fast again as their pay over…

A year ago this weekend, crypto markets went through the largest forced-selling event in their history. Bitcoin set a record high of $126,080 on 6 October 2025. Four days later, a sudden escalation in US-China trade tensions triggered a wave of liquidations that wiped out roughly $20 billion in leveraged positions over a single weekend. A year on, Bitcoin trades roughly a third below that peak.

The anniversary is worth marking for two reasons. First, the mechanics that turned a political headline into a market rout are still in place today. Second, October's reputation as a strong month for Bitcoin can make traders careless at exactly the wrong moment.

What happened in October 2025

On Friday 10 October (US time), President Donald Trump…

The minutes back a hawkish read of the Fed path, keeping a further hike at the 27-28 October meeting or in December firmly in play and supporting front-end Treasury yields. The explicit link between prolonged high energy prices and broader inflation makes oil a direct input into Fed pricing: further supply shocks in the Gulf would likely strengthen the case for additional tightening rather than be looked through. For the dollar, the hawkish tone is partly offset by tightening abroad, with the ECB also raising rates, which has narrowed rate differentials. Equity investors may take some comfort that officials see financial conditions as still supportive of growth.

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Earlier:

• investingLive Americas market news wrap: Fed officials prepared to…