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A target this far above the pack sharpens the valuation debate across memory stocks: if investors accept that AI has broken the traditional boom-and-bust pattern, multiples across the sector have room to expand. The counterargument is that markets have historically refused to pay up for peak memory earnings, and a sub-10 times multiple on a stock up more than 260% this year suggests many investors still expect the cycle to turn. Micron's December buyback is a nearer-term, more tangible support for the shares than any re-rating. Any sign of easing memory prices or faster capacity additions would test the bull case quickly.

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Micron's profits have grown faster than its share price, and D.A. Davidson's Gil Luria is betting investors will…

The shift from public bond issuance to bespoke private financing suggests the cost of the AI buildout is outrunning what traditional debt markets can comfortably absorb, which puts private credit giants at the centre of the next phase of spending. For chipmakers such as Broadcom and Nvidia, lender-backed purchases support demand visibility well beyond what buyers could fund from their own balance sheets. Off-balance-sheet lease structures may ease pressure on borrowers' credit metrics, but they also obscure true leverage, which credit investors are likely to scrutinise as deal sizes grow. Any wobble in AI-related revenue would now ripple through a wider set of lenders than before.

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Earlier:

• Goldman Sachs: Four takeaways as AI's challenge…

For equities, Goldman's read favours the bottleneck rather than the end user: companies supplying power generation, transmission, grid modernisation and high-voltage equipment hold pricing power while capacity stays scarce. Multi-year order books give these names unusually long revenue visibility, though execution slippage is now the main risk to earnings delivery. A broadening industrial recovery argues against treating the sector purely as an AI proxy, while construction exposure tied to commercial and residential markets still looks the weaker side of the trade. In defence, European manufacturers able to lift output are best placed, while US contractors face more budget and rate-driven uncertainty.

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Goldman Sachs says nobody is…

The strike pushes perceived risk deeper into the Gulf, beyond the Hormuz chokepoint traders have focused on, which supports the war-risk premium in crude. Deliberately targeting crews is likely to shrink the pool of vessels and seafarers willing to operate in the region, lifting freight and insurance costs and potentially slowing loadings from Gulf terminals even on routes that avoid the strait. Oil traders will want confirmation of who carried out the attack, and any repeat incidents away from Hormuz would add to upside price risk.

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A deadly multi-projectile strike on a tanker north of Qatar suggests attacks on Gulf shipping are spreading beyond Hormuz and are now aimed at crews, not just engines.

Summary:

• A tanker was hit by multiple…

The major U.S. stock indices closed lower on Wednesday, one day after the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 all finished at record levels. Today, those indices—and the Dow—never escaped negative territory.

The declines were relatively modest for the S&P and Nasdaq indices, with each losing around 0.2%. The Dow fell 0.66%, while the small-cap Russell 2000 was the weakest performer, declining 1.31%. Yesterday’s record celebration gave way to a more cautious session.

Treasury yields were mixed. The two-year yield moved lower, but longer maturities edged higher despite a stellar $39 billion 10-year note auction. The bond market did not deliver a broad decline in yields to help equity buyers.

U.S. stock market closing levels

• Dow Industrial…

The biggest news ahead of the session here today is that mainland Chinese markets reopen after a week long holiday. China's absence seems to have been keenly felt by gold! I'll pop more on gold separately.

The data agenda should be not very impactufl:

• FOMC Minutes: Most participants assessed another hike would likely be appropriate by year end
• The US treasury sells $39 billion of 10 year notes at a high yield of 5.300% versus WI level of 5.317%
• Tropical Storm Isaias spins up in the Gulf
• New York Fed inflation expectations: One year inflation expectations hit the highest since 2023
• EIA weekly US crude oil inventories -3186K vs +1722K expected

Markets:

• Gold down $53 to $4110
• WTI crude oil down 96-cents to $88.48
• US 10-year yields up 0.2 bps to 5.27%
• S&P 500 down 0.1%
• USD leads, EUR lags

It was one of those days where it looked like market sentiment could fall apart due to rising bond yields but then the market turned and made an improbable recovery despite no real catalyst. The main help came from…

There is some life in the USDCHF, but it is still in intensive care. Buyers have pushed the price above the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages. That gives them a more bullish bias and a clear area to defend. What is missing is stronger upside momentum.

In the video above, I look at the levels that will tell us whether this recovery can gain strength or whether sellers get another shot. The moving averages define the risk. Last week’s high provides the upside objective if buyers can keep control.

Yesterday, the USDCHF heartbeat was nearly flatlined as the hourly moving averages converged. Today’s supplied chart shows the price above both averages, trading near 0.83291. There is a pulse. Now buyers need to build on it.

The moving averages…

Ahead of the Minutes, the market was pricing in a 19% chance of a hike this month and fully priced for a December hike.

Highlights:

• All participants supported raising rates to 3.75-4.00%
• Most participants say another hike will likely be appropriate by year-end
• Almost all assessed that labour market risks had diminished and were now broadly balanced
• A majority said the labour market had strengthened a bit recently
• Inflation risks skewed to the upside; some said more skewed in recent months
• Many saw a higher rate path as prudent on risk-management grounds
• A number said a higher path was needed based on their modal outlook
• Several viewed the current policy rate as not restrictive or only mildly restrictive
• A couple raised their estimate of the neutral…

The US almost entirely dodged the 2026 hurricane season but a late-year storm has formed in the Gulf of Mexico and is headed towards the US coast. Current projections show the landfall of a strong hurricane on Friday night near the border of Mississippi and Alabama. The center looks headed east of most of the Gulf oil infrastructure but the cone of probabililties is still wide.

NOAA identified the strengthening El Niño as the dominant factor behind the weak hurricane season. It's made the atmosphere hostile to Atlantic hurricanes—even with warm water available to fuel them. That's because of strong wind shear, more sinking air and greater atmospheric stability. The flip side of that equation is that parts of the US could face other…

The USDCAD has been on a steady climb since bottoming near 1.3759 on September 8. On Monday, that rally reached 1.42928, right near the 61.8% retracement level of the longer-term move down from the early February 2025 high price (see the chart below).

Sellers leaned against that resistance, defined their risk, and pushed the price lower.

Yesterday, the correction lower gained momentum after the price tested and then broke below its rising 100-hour moving average (blue line on the chart below). That break gave sellers another reason to press to the downside.

However, the buyers had a level to lean against too.

After the price decline further, the decline stalled near 1.4207 late yesterday and into today’s Asian-Pacific session, where the…

The U.S. Treasury thousand $39 billion of 10 year notes:

• WI level at the time of the auction: 5.317%

• High yield: 5.300%

• WI level at the time of the auction: 5.317%

• Stop-through: 1.7 basis points vs the average of 0.3 basis points

• Bid to cover: 2.77X vs the average of 2.54X

• Directs: 17.2% vs the average of 17.0%

• Indirects: 80.34% vs the average of 74.1%

• Dealers: 2.54% vs the average of 8.8%

Auction grade: A

A strong auction across the board. The high yield came in 1.7 basis points below the WI level, showing buyers were willing to accept a lower yield than the market indicated ahead of the auction. Bid to cover was comfortably above average, while indirect bidders took 80.34% of the issue. Direct demand was marginally above average as well. That…