Market News

Bitcoin spent the last few days trying to break through the upper swing area between $85,578 and $87,374, but buyers could not get the price above the ceiling.

Friday’s high reached $87,144, just short of the upper extreme. Monday’s high was a little lower at $86,969, and yesterday’s high stalled at $86,677 before rotating to the downside. Those progressively lower highs suggested the upside push was losing momentum.

Buyers had their shot. They could not finish the job.

The moving average breaks gave sellers the shove

Despite the failed attempts near the highs, buyers continued to lean against the rising 100-hour moving average — the blue line on the chart below — and the rising 200-hour moving average, shown in green. Those levels helped…

In the video above, I take a look at the three major currency pairs—EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD—from a technical perspective. For each pair, I outline the bias, the risk-defining levels and the targets that would give either the buyers or sellers more control.

The dollar is higher, but where does that leave traders? In the Kickstart video above, I take a technical look at EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD and outline the levels that define the bias, limit the risk and provide the next targets.

By about 11:25 a.m. ET, U.S. stocks are trading lower, longer-term Treasury yields are rising, and precious metals and Bitcoin are under pressure. Crude oil is modestly higher as traders continue to weigh supply risks.

The Fed’s September meeting minutes remain…

The New York Fed survey of consumer expectations

• One year inflation 3.9% vs 3.6% prior
• Three year inflation 3.3% vs 3.2% prior
• Five year inflation unchanged at %3%
• Year-ahead expected spending rose to the highest since May 2023
• Labor market expectations were mostly positive

The Fed won't be happy about this but will take some solace in the flat 5-year number. But like many of them are saying, longer-term inflation expectations are stable until they're not.

For background, the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations is a monthly report tracking how US households view inflation, the labour market and their finances. Launched in June 2013, it surveys a nationally representative rotating panel of approximately 1,200 household heads.…

• Prior was +922K
• Gasoline +382K vs -1658K expected
• Distillates -42K vs -2111K expected

WTI crude oil was trading higher by 45-cents to $89.89 ahead of the reelase and in a range of $89.33 to $90.98 today. Eyes are on the Middle East once again after Houthis struck three Saudi pumping stations. Earlier, there was also talk of an explosion heard in the Strait of Hormuz.

In a separate statement released from the IEA said that member nations expressed support for accelerated actions to release previously announced reserves as soon as possible. IEA members also supported the prioritization of the release of diesel stockpiles.

API data released late yesterday showed:

• Crude -2090K
• Gasoline -1370K
• Distillates +461K

Here are five terms to know before…

Brazil had a monster day on Monday and Morgan Stanley isn't fading it. The LatAm equity strategy team upgraded Brazil to overweight late on Monday. They call it the start of the market's "honeymoon stage" with Flavio Bolsonaro, and they see room for a further 10% in equities and 10% in the real by year-end as risk premia compress.

For context, MSCI Brazil gained 12.5% in USD terms on the day. MSCI EM rose 1.6%, Mexico 1.1% and the S&P 500 0.7%. The EWZ Brazil ETF is shown here:

The core of the call is less about the election and more about plumbing. MS argues Brazilian investors have been crowded out of stocks for years by record-high real rates. Local allocations to equities sit around 5%, barely above the all-time low of 4.6%. That…

Credit spreads are one of the most useful market indicators for assessing financial conditions, risk appetite and the health of the corporate sector. They measure the additional yield investors demand to hold corporate bonds instead of the risk-free US Treasury bonds.

For example, if a five-year US Treasury yields 4.0% and a five-year corporate bond with a similar maturity yields 5.5%, the credit spread is 1.5 percentage points, or 150 basis points. The additional yield compensates investors for taking on the risks associated with lending to a company, including the possibility of default, deterioration in its financial condition and lower liquidity.

There are two broad credit markets that investors monitor particularly closely:…

The Treasury market looks like it's determined to find the breaking point for risk assets. US long-dated yields have been rocketing higher since taking out the big 5% figure but that hasn't undermined stock markets yet, or even gold. At some point that will change as ever-higher yields compete with equities for capital.

Today, US 10s are up 8 bps to a high of 5.35%, which is narrowly below Monday's post-GFC high. Further out, US 30s are making a new 24-year high up 7.4 bps to 5.72%. A crack of 6% in long bonds would undoubtedly crack a few spots in the economy, especially housing (which is already badly struggling).

Recently, there was a brief respite in borrowing costs as economic data downshifted in the past 10 days with softer non-farm…

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

The S&P 500 managed to rally into a new record high yesterday despite strong tensions under the hood. There’s been a significant divergence in market breadth, but the more important one is with US credit spreads which have been widening considerably.

Credit spreads are a useful indicator of financial conditions and risk appetite. When growth expectations improve, credit spreads tighten and the risk sentiment turns positive. On the other hand, when growth expectations deteriorate, credit spreads widen and the risk sentiment turns negative.

Credit spreads generally lead the stock market, so the recent rally might not have been a healthy one, and the…

Headlines:

• Treasury yields continue to break higher as 30-year hits 5.70%, putting markets on edge
• Crude oil rebounds as persistent supply risks continue to outweigh improving physical exports
• Bitcoin dips as over $400 million in crypto longs are liquidated in just one hour
• Chart of the day: EUR/CHF is becoming a pressure gauge for Europe’s fiscal risks
• What are the FOMC meeting minutes and why do they rarely move markets?

Markets:

• 10-year Treasury yields +6 bps to 5.34%
• WTI crude up 0.7% to $90.06
• USD leads, EUR lags on the day
• Gold down 1.1% to $4,118
• European equities lower; S&P 500 futures -0.4%
• Bitcoin down 2.3% to $83,653

It's still all about the bond market in trading this week. And once again, we're seeing long-end Treasury yields attempt a…

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

Hyperliquid’s recent strength has been driven by a combination of strong protocol activity and favorable tokenomics. Trading volumes and open interest have continued to grow, while a large share of fees from its core perpetuals business is used to buy back HYPE through the Assistance Fund.

Recent buybacks, including roughly $10 million of HYPE purchased and burned on October 5, have reinforced the supply-reduction narrative. The expansion of HIP-3, which allows third parties to create perpetual markets for assets such as stocks and commodities, is also broadening Hyperliquid’s market beyond crypto.

Institutional adoption has provided another…

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

Crude oil came under some pressure yesterday and at some point, even threatened a major breakdown below the rising channel. There was no reason for the downside given the US-Iran stalemate and persistent disruptions. Sure enough, oil prices rebounded and eventually erased almost all the weekly losses.

In terms of upside catalysts, there’s been an escalation in Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, with strikes targeting airports and reports of damage to energy infrastructure.

At the same time, a developing storm in the Gulf of Mexico is threatening US oil and gas production as well as refining capacity. The storm has already prompted …

It's a brand new week but the bond market is still not giving broader markets much room to breathe.

Treasury yields are once again pushing higher again today, with the 30-year yields touching 5.70% - their highest since 2002. Meanwhile, 10-year yields are nudging up to around 5.32% and closing in on levels not seen in over two decades as well.

When you look at the chart, the direction of travel is rather clear. 30-year yields have powered through the 5.40% area since the final week of September and are continuing to stretch higher.

I would argue that the bigger takeaway here isn't that yields have reached another multi-decade high. At this juncture, it is more about what the move is telling us about the sort of market landscape that…