Market News

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

Bitcoin saw a quick dip overnight with reportedly more than $400 million of leveraged longs liquidated in roughly one hour, although there was no catalyst for the move. It must be said, though, that were no reasons for more gains either as macro and geopolitical headwinds continue to limit the upside.

On the regulatory side, the CFTC proposed a new federal framework for crypto trading venues on October 5. The proposal would allow qualifying exchanges to opt into federal CFTC oversight and introduce requirements such as proof of reserves and market-manipulation controls. That's structurally positive for crypto, but the focus has been on macro recently.

Treasury…

If you've never traded government bonds, it is easy to see something like the France-Germany 10-year yield spread and think, why should I care?

Well, let's look at it through a lens that most people would find more interesting - football.

Just think of France and Germany being two clubs that are playing in the same league. Now, both clubs need to borrow money in order to keep the operation running. However, investors see Germany as being the safer team to back. So if Germany can borrow for 10 years at 3.50% while France has to pay 4.30%, that 0.80% (80 bps) difference is essentially the yield spread.

To put things more simply, it is saying that investors need to be paid more to take on the French risk. So if the spread suddenly widens, it is…

IC – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 07 October 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Australia’s weak headline building-approval figure put some pressure on the AUD, while the yen weakened despite renewed discussion of gradual BOJ rate hikes. The biggest move came from oil, which pushed above $90 WTI and $101 Brent as traders assessed potential supply disruptions and Middle East tensions. Gold also remained firm, while markets reduced expectations for an October Fed hike ahead of the Fed’s September meeting minutes.

What does it mean for the European & US sessions?

A hawkish Fed could push the USD and Treasury yields higher, putting pressure on gold and equities. A more cautious or divided Fed could have the opposite effect. Oil remains…

●         Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 0.55%, Shanghai Composite up 0.31% Hang Seng down 0.55% ASX down 0.08%

●        Commodities : Gold at $4,170.37 (-0.40%) Silver at $61.182 (-0.65%), Brent Oil at 101.58 (0.99%), WTI Oil at 90.21 (0.86%)

●        Rates : US 10-year yield at 5.304, UK 10-year yield at 5.3796, Germany 10-year yield at 3.4808

●        (CAD)  Ivey PMI

       58.2 to 65.2  expected

U.S. equity futures were little changed Tuesday evening after the S&P 500 reached a fresh intraday record and posted an all-time closing high, supported by a rally in technology stocks.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 37 points, or 0.07%, while S&P 500 futures…

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

Gold continues to consolidate around the recent lows as traders await new developments on the US-Iran negotiations front and remain wary of the US CPI risk next week.

Yesterday’s weakness was caused by a rise in Treasury yields and the US dollar after oil prices jumped following Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, including airports, while there were also reports of damage to Saudi energy infrastructure.

Moreover, a developing storm is threatening US Gulf production and refining infrastructure. Reuters estimated that facilities responsible for around 15% of US crude production and 5% of natural-gas production could be affected, while up to six…

As Treasury yields threaten multi-decade highs, it is allowing the US dollar to start flexing its muscles again.

The dollar enjoyed a good September month, with the dollar index now trading up to its highest levels since April 2025. And if you want to argue from the perspective that the dollar index is largely skewed towards movement in EUR/USD, even the Bloomberg dollar index had rallied recently to its highest levels since June - which at the time was the highest since November last year.

In short, the connection to Treasury yields, which are continuing to threaten multi-decade highs at around 5.30% today, with a stronger dollar is rather evident. And that combination matters because a stronger dollar can effectively become another form…

Lower-than-expected inflation, a weaker labor market, and falling consumer confidence have raised hopes that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in October, easing some pressure on bonds. 

Still, the growing fiscal deficit and the war in the Middle East remain unresolved, so even if the Fed turns dovish, a return to 2021 levels still seems unlikely.

Seems like the stock market shouldn’t be doing this well in this environment, yet the Nasdaq gained 1.05% on Monday, hit a new record high, helping Musk rejoin the trillionaire club. But why, if higher borrowing costs mean companies pay more to refinance debt and fund new projects and acquisitions, while higher Treasury yields make high stock valuations harder to justify? 

Because there are more…

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes are a detailed account of the discussions that took place among Federal Reserve officials during a monetary policy meeting. They provide additional insight into how policymakers viewed the economy, inflation, employment and the appropriate path for interest rates.

However, despite containing a great deal of information, the FOMC minutes are very rarely a major market-moving report. The reason is simple, the minutes are old news by the time they are released.

In fact, the minutes are published approximately three weeks after the FOMC rate decision. By then, traders have already had several weeks to digest the decision, the statement, the press conference and subsequent comments from…

US Stocks Rally to Fresh Records – S&P up 0.6%

US equity markets advanced again yesterday, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching fresh record highs as Treasury yields eased and investors began to turn their attention toward the upcoming third-quarter earnings season. The Dow Jones gained 0.49% to close at 51,521, while the S&P 500 rose 0.58% to a record 7,818. The Nasdaq also reached a new closing high, advancing 0.45% to 27,599.

US Treasury yields moved lower across the curve, providing additional support for equity markets. The policy-sensitive 2-year yield declined 1.4 basis points to 4.798%, while the benchmark 10-year yield fell 2.4 basis points to 5.279%. The pullback in yields also weighed on the US dollar, with the…

IC – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 07 October 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

A tug-of-war between elevated inflation/fiscal concerns and growing expectations that the Fed may not raise rates in October. The wider-than-expected $105.6 billion U.S. trade deficit and historically high Treasury borrowing costs highlighted underlying economic and fiscal pressures, but falling Treasury yields and easing oil prices provided relief to risk assets. That combination helped push the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to record highs, while gold benefited from lower yields and a softer dollar. Oil remained highly sensitive to Middle Eastern supply developments, the planned G7 reserve release, and geopolitical risks.

What does it mean for the Asia…