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Deutsche Bank's argument is hawkish at heart. If each hike does less damage to household cash flow than in the past, the RBA may need to do more to slow demand, which keeps a fifth hike in November in play and supports the short end of the Australian yield curve. That would also lend some support to the Australian dollar against currencies where central banks are closer to the end of their tightening. The risk to this view comes from asset prices. A deeper housing slump or a sharp correction in global AI stocks, both flagged in RBA staff work, would test whether balance sheets are as robust as they look. With oil above $100 keeping inflation pressure elevated, the RBA has little room to give households the benefit of the doubt.

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Earlier:

• <a href="https://investinglive.com/central-banks/rba-papers-show-a-20-ai-stock-slump-could-cut-australian-spending-by-about-2-5" target="_blank"…

If confirmed, a strike reaching Riyadh would mark a significant widening of the conflict beyond Saudi Arabia's southern border region, and oil traders will treat it as a test of how exposed the kingdom's core infrastructure has become. That matters because Saudi export capacity, including the East-West Pipeline that has only just returned to near-normal flows, is central to the recovery in Middle East supply. Until Saudi authorities confirm or deny the claims, any price reaction is likely to reflect headline risk rather than lost barrels, adding to the premium that has kept Brent around $100. Confirmation of damage or civilian casualties would raise the risk of a stronger Saudi military response, which could escalate further. An official…

House stablecoins chip away at Tether and Circle's dominance by redirecting the interest earned on reserves to the platforms that hold user deposits. That's a gradual threat to incumbent issuers rather than a sudden one. For Ethena, each new partner adds demand for its infrastructure and potentially for USDe and USDtb as backing assets, which ties its growth to how many platforms sign up. The risk for traders is fragmentation: liquidity split across many smaller dollar tokens can mean wider spreads and slower redemptions under stress. Until backing mixes are disclosed, the market can't fully price the difference between these coins.

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Other:

• Glamsterdam in plain English: how Ethereum plans to cut out the middlemen in block building
• Bitcoin…

Oil is the common thread in every forecast. India imports most of its crude, so prices above $100 a barrel feed straight into inflation and the trade deficit, while higher US yields pull capital out of emerging markets and weigh on the rupee. A hike today would be largely expected, so the reaction is likely to turn on guidance: signals of a second move in December would support the rupee and push short-dated government bond yields higher. A hold, as MUFG expects, would be the bigger surprise and could weaken the rupee in the near term, although the RBI's large reserves give it room to lean against any sharp fall. Any announcement on draining surplus liquidity would act as a tightening in its own right, whatever happens to the repo rate.

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Oil is the main channel through which the Middle East conflict reaches Indian policy. As a large net importer of crude, India sees higher energy prices feed quickly into both inflation and the trade balance, adding pressure on the rupee at the same time as rising US yields draw capital away from emerging markets. That makes the RBI's language on currency defence and inflation forecasts as important as the rate decision itself. MUFG's view that markets are already pricing more tightening than it expects suggests a hold without a sharply hawkish signal could support Indian government bonds. A shift away from the neutral stance, or explicit warnings on oil-driven inflation, would push the other way and could lend some support to the rupee.

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The storm's biggest effect may fall on refined products rather than crude. If Gulf Coast refineries shut ahead of landfall, they stop buying crude, which can briefly weigh on US crude prices even as gasoline and diesel tighten. That would widen crack spreads, the margin between crude and the fuels refined from it, at a time when diesel is already at record highs and Western governments are preparing emergency stock releases. Outside the US, the Houthi attacks and Washington's sharper tone on Iran keep a geopolitical premium in Brent that rising Gulf export volumes have so far failed to erode. For now, the balance of risks favours prices holding around $100 rather than falling back, unless the storm weakens or Middle East tensions ease.

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Oil remains the swing factor. Higher diesel and gasoline prices from the Middle East conflict feed directly into inflation expectations, and one strategist quoted by Barron's (may be gated) described oil as a wild card for US rates. That means any long-bond rally is hostage to Gulf supply headlines, much as Goldman Sachs suggested in its note. Strong inflows into long-duration funds during a record losing streak show that real money is willing to buy weakness, which could slow the selloff even if it doesn't reverse it. Against that, a Fed on a tightening path, heavy issuance and AI-related corporate borrowing keep upward pressure on yields, so volatility is likely to stay high.

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Long Treasuries are having their worst run on record, which…

The deal underlines a theme running through bond markets this week: AI is now a major source of corporate debt supply. Goldman Sachs cited AI-related corporate issuance as one of the forces pushing US Treasury yields higher, and a $30 billion investment-grade offering from a single borrower would add to that competition for investor cash. For Nvidia, a large debt-financed order from a customer committed to using its hardware exclusively supports the demand outlook, although the muted share reaction suggests much of that is already priced in. The bigger question for credit markets is appetite. With Morgan Stanley warning of rising caution among lenders, the pricing and take-up of this deal will be a useful test of how much more AI…

The oil link is the one to watch. In Goldman's account, the energy shock reaches US Treasuries indirectly, through forced selling in UK and euro-area bonds, which means Gulf supply headlines are now a bond market driver as well as a crude market one. With Brent holding around $100, that pressure is unlikely to ease without a de-escalation or a clear improvement in Middle East flows. Higher Treasury yields also tighten financial conditions for equities, credit and housing, the very adjustment Goldman suggests the market is pushing for. For investors, the bank's call is a conditional one: yields may look attractive, but the catalyst for a rally has to come from energy or growth, not valuation alone.

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Goldman Sachs thinks the Treasury…

Market impact: Glamsterdam is a slow-burn catalyst rather than a price trigger. Its benefits arrive at the infrastructure level and build over time as capacity rises. The near-term sentiment risk lies in the calendar: the upgrade has already slipped twice, and another delay after testnet trouble would likely weigh on the "Ethereum catch-up" narrative more than a clean test would lift it. Fund flows remain the better gauge of demand. Until Ether products show sustained inflows, traders are likely to treat upgrade milestones as background rather than reasons to chase ETH.

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Glamsterdam swaps Ethereum's handshake deals with block-building middlemen for rules the network enforces itself, a real structural upgrade, but one whose payoff…

The detail that matters most for the Bank of Japan is base pay. Regular wages holding steady near 4% points to durable wage growth rather than a bonus-driven spike, which is the kind of evidence policymakers want before tightening further. That supports the yen and front-end Japanese government bond yields at the margin, even as the headline real wage gain slowed. The risk to the real wage picture comes from prices. With the inflation measure used in the calculation only just above 2%, and Tokyo core inflation accelerating alongside elevated oil costs from the Middle East conflict, any pickup in the deflator would quickly erode real gains. That tension matches the Reuters Tankan earlier today, where service firms said inflation was…

For gold, the move adds a modest but timely source of official-sector demand just after a September in which spot prices fell more than 6%. The ministry does not disclose how purchases are split between gold and foreign currency, which limits how much weight traders can put on it. The bigger point is the link to oil. Russia's buying of gold and yuan now rises and falls with energy prices, so any easing of the Gulf supply shock that pulls crude lower would quickly shrink this channel of demand. For the rouble, larger state purchases of foreign assets are a headwind, all else being equal.

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Earlier:

• Perth Mint gold sales nearly double to seven-month high as prices slide

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High oil prices are being recycled into gold and currency reserves in…