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The drop in October hike pricing removes the most immediate threat to leveraged crypto positioning, which helps explain why Bitcoin has defended the low $80,000s despite multidecade highs in Treasury yields. Bonds giving back their post-payrolls gains is the warning sign: the long end is moving on inflation and fiscal concerns, not just the Fed's next step. Traders are likely to stay range-bound until September CPI clarifies whether the softer jobs data reflects a real cooling in inflation pressure. A hot print would hit leveraged longs first, while a soft one could open room above the late-September high.

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Softer US data has taken an October Fed hike largely off the table, but with the 10-year yield still above 5%, Bitcoin has swapped…

The split matters for the Bank of Japan. Strength in manufacturing supports the case that the economy can absorb further rate increases, but respondents in property and services directly cited higher interest rates and weaker household spending as drags. That mix fits the gradual, no-pre-set-pace approach board member Ayano Sato outlined this week rather than any acceleration. Cost pressure remains a theme, with food producers hit hardest by raw-material prices, and the Middle East energy shock is likely to keep that pressure on while oil stays elevated. For equities, the survey reinforces the chip-equipment and machinery trade, while domestically focused retail, food and property names look more exposed.

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Earlier:

• Japan media reports:…

US oil inventory preview: five terms that explain what traders will be watching

US crude stockpiles are expected to have risen last week while fuel inventories fell, a Reuters poll showed. Early industry data, however, points the other way on crude. Here's what's expected, and what the key terms in the weekly reports actually mean.

What analysts expect

Analysts polled by Reuters expect crude inventories to have risen by close to 2 million barrels in the week to 2 October, roughly in line with the five-year average for the time of year. Gasoline stocks are seen falling by a similar amount and distillate stocks by about 2 million barrels. Refinery utilisation is expected to have slipped slightly from about 92.5% of capacity.

The previous week's…

The papers cut both ways for rates. Model estimates putting the NAIRU near 5%, above the current 4.6% jobless rate, imply the labour market may still be tighter than the RBA's working assumption, which supports the case for a further hike. The neutral rate range adds to that. With the cash rate at 4.6% and headline inflation at 4%, the rough real policy rate sits inside the RBA's estimated neutral band, a simple calculation that suggests policy may be less restrictive than it looks. Against that, the combined drag from falling house prices and a possible AI-led equity correction points to downside risks to consumption, which would argue for caution. For the Australian dollar and short-end rates, the balance probably keeps November in play…

Sato's remarks soften the picture of a hardening dovish bloc that unsettled the yen after September's split vote. When one of the board's most reluctant members accepts that policy is still accommodative, the hurdle for the next hike looks lower, even if timing remains open. The oil link matters most. As a major crude importer, Japan feels Middle East supply disruption directly through import costs, and a dove citing that pressure suggests energy prices are now shaping the policy debate across the whole board. Her rejection of a pre-set pace leaves room to argue for delay, so the yen's response is likely to depend on whether other board members echo the gradual-but-onward message.

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Earlier:

• BoJ’s Sato supports further rate hikes but…

The standout signal is that physical buying picked up as prices fell, suggesting retail investors treat weakness as an entry point rather than a reason to retreat. That pattern can help cushion declines, although retail coin and bar demand is small next to the larger institutional flows that usually set the gold price. The seasonal lift from new Lunar series coins flatters the September numbers, so October will be a better test of whether dip buying persists without a product launch. For silver, the modest annual gain suggests the monthly jump was partly a rebound from a weak August rather than a clear step change in demand.

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Gold and silver had a bruising September, but at the Perth Mint the sell-off looked more like a sale, with buyers…

For oil, the direct cost is negligible. A $50,000 transit bonus spread across a supertanker cargo of around 2 million barrels adds only a couple of cents a barrel, far less than owners are paying in freight and war-risk insurance. The more important signal is that Gulf supply now depends on a labour bottleneck as well as a physical one, so flows can recover while the risk of sudden interruption stays high. That helps explain why Brent keeps a substantial premium over WTI even as Saudi exports return. An attack that triggered crew refusals or forced owners to pause sailings would cut seaborne crude availability faster than damage to onshore infrastructure.

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Earlier:

• Oil: Private survey of inventory shows a headline crude oil draw
• Brent…

• Oil: Private survey of inventory shows a headline crude oil draw
• S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 close at records
• Crude oil rebounds as Hormuz tensions rise. Can buyers take back full control?
• Fed Schmid: Labor force remains a in a good place
• Although the broader indices are looking to close at record levels, the Magnificent 7 (sans Nvidia) lag behind
• US treasury sells $58 billion of 3 year notes at a high yield of 4.932%
• Fed’s Daly: More tightening depends on whether AI, tariff and energy shocks persist
• BoJ’s Sato supports further rate hikes but avoids specifying timing. USDJPY remains confined.
• Bitcoin compresses the range and builds pressure for a run
• US International Trade balance for August -105.6B vs -102.0B.
• Canada August trade…

The flat settlement hides a market pricing two different problems: a Gulf crude shock that is easing at the margin, and a refined-products squeeze that is not. Brent's premium of around $11 over WTI shows how much of the risk sits in seaborne, Middle East-linked barrels rather than in US domestic supply. That leaves near-term risks skewed to the upside for products, with a likely Gulf of Mexico storm threatening US refining while diesel is already at record levels. A third straight US crude build would support the view that high prices are starting to ration demand, but a fresh strike on Saudi export infrastructure would quickly overwhelm that signal.

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Earlier:

• Oil: Private survey of inventory shows a headline crude oil draw

• Crude Oil…

Reuters with the headline numbers:

• Crude stocks fell by 2.09 million barrels in the week ended October 2, the sources said on the condition of anonymity.Gasoline stocks fell by 1.37 million barrels, while distillate inventories rose by about 461,000 barrels, compared with a week earlier, the sources said.

API vs EIA: how the two weekly US oil inventory reports differ

Oil traders get two readings of US crude and fuel stockpiles each week. They cover the same ground, but they come from different organisations, use different methods, and carry different weight in the market.

The first comes from the American Petroleum Institute (API), the main US oil and gas industry trade group. It is usually released on Tuesday at 4:30 pm US Eastern time.…

Utilities lead sector gains, Amazon outperforms the Magnificent Seven, and small caps finish lower.

U.S. stocks closed mostly higher Tuesday, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 finishing at record levels. The Dow also advanced, but the small-cap Russell 2000 moved lower.

The gains came with some interesting differences beneath the surface. Utilities were the strongest sector by a wide margin, while networking and data-center infrastructure names dominated the individual winners. However, several semiconductor stocks fell sharply. Buyers were making a play, but they were selective.

The session began with lower Treasury yields and weaker crude oil, providing a more supportive backdrop for equities. Those were early-session…

There isn't much on the economic and event agends during the Aisa-Pacific timezone to shift marekts around too much upon release. Nnote that ECB board member Piero Cipollone will be speaking at an event in The Philippines, in a panel discussion at Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee International Research Fair.