Bitcoin found some
support yesterday from the positive risk sentiment after we got some positive headlines
that strengthened hopes for a US-Iran deal.
In fact, it was
reported that meetings between Trump, Vance and the Qatari PM were positive,
and they discussed ways to progress talks with Iran. Trump said after talks
with the Qatari PM that Qatar would rather see a peaceful solution with Iran,
but the US is ready for strikes if necessary.
Moreover, it was
reported that the US has allowed a small uranium enrichment inside Iran, which
Tehran agreed to, and preliminary agreement on reducing uranium enrichment is
likely.
Today the focus
will be on the US CPI report. We won’t get the Y/Y figures because of the
government shutdown last year. Soft data wouldn’t change anything as Fed’s Waller said
earlier that he
would support a rate hike in December even if today’s CPI improves relative to
September.
What traders will
be looking at is if the Core CPI M/M comes in at 0.3% or higher as Waller said
that he would vote for a larger 0.5% hike in such a case. He’s a very
influential Fed governor and has been a leading indicator for Fed policy since
2021, so his views are always important for the market.
A more hawkish Fed
without an end to the Iran war is going to weigh heavily on the growth outlook
and Bitcoin.
BITCOIN TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME
On the daily chart, we can
see that Bitcoinis approaching the major
upward trendline. If the price gets there, we can expect the buyers to lean on
the trendline, with a defined risk below it, to position for a rally into the
98,000 level, with the downward trendline as the first target. The sellers, on
the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the
bearish bets into the 67,000 level next.
BITCOIN TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 4 hour chart, we have
a minor resistance zone around the 76,000 level where the price got rejected
from several times in the past weeks. If we get a pullback, we can expect the
sellers to step in around the resistance, with a defined risk above it, to keep
targeting the major upward trendline. The buyers, on the other hand, will look
for a break higher to extend the pullback into the downward trendline next.
BITCOIN TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 1 hour chart, there’s
not much we can add here as the sellers will have a better risk to reward setup
around the resistance, while the buyers will look for a break above the
resistance or a bounce around the major upward trendline. The red lines define
the average daily range for today.
UPCOMING CATALYSTS
Todaywe have
the US CPI report. Tomorrow, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On
Friday, we conclude the week with the US PPI data.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.