Market News

The USDCHF’s heartbeat is barely registering. The low-to-high trading range is just 27 pips, with the price moving up and down like a faint pulse. Meanwhile, the 100- and 200-hour moving averages have converged at 0.83138, giving traders a clear reference point for the next move.

When this happens, it is time to put on your running shoes and get into position. The starter’s gun has not fired yet, but you want to be ready when it does.

A narrow range tells us the market is waiting. It does not tell us which direction the next move will take. For that, traders need to watch how the price behaves around the converged moving averages and the day’s extremes.

Move above the moving averages, break the high and stay above, and the buyers have a…

Stocks are not currently showing the broad anxiety we might associate with a major health emergency. Nevertheless, reports surrounding the death of a worker at a plague research institute in Siberia deserve awareness. For traders and investors, the question is whether new medical evidence turns a local incident into a wider economic concern.

The worker died from pneumonia of an uncertain cause. According to Reuters, Russian authorities told the World Health Organization that no plague cases had been confirmed in Irkutsk and contacts had tested negative for dangerous infectious pathogens. The cause of her death remains unresolved. www.reuters.com

That distinction matters: a suspected infection and precautionary quarantine do not establish a…

Middle East tensions are back in focus, with a series of headlines raising concerns about shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. For crude oil traders, the question is whether those threats lead to a sustained disruption to supply.

Shipping and security headlines

• Ship attack near Oman: Fars reports that a ship was attacked off Oman’s Musandam coast. Separately, Oman said it carried out a medical evacuation for 10 crew members of a Panama-flagged commercial vessel attacked northeast of Lima. Those reports may refer to the same incident.

• Missile launches toward Hormuz: Naya reports that several missiles were launched toward the Strait of Hormuz. Details remain limited, including the intended targets and any damage.

• Explosion near Qeshm Island:…

There is a little change in the market after the auction resultsThe first leg of the 3 coupon auctions this week including the 3 year, 10 year and 30 year is complete.

Summary

• WI level at the time of the auction: 4.934%
• High yield: 4.932%
• WI level at the time of the auction: 4.934%
• Stop-through: 0.2 basis points vs the average stop-through of 0.3 basis points
• Bid to cover: 2.62X vs the average of 2.65X
• Directs: 31.7% vs the average of 21.5%
• Indirects: 57.6% vs the average of 65.9%
• Dealers: 10.7% vs the average of 12.6%

Auction grade: C+

A slightly above-average auction overall. The Treasury sold the notes 0.2 basis points below the WI yield, although that stop-through was slightly smaller than the average. Bid to cover was also just below average.…

• Labor force remains in a good place
• Still still have a way to in beating inflation

Jeffrey Schmid, president of the Kansas City Fed, has maintained a hawkish focus on inflation. Last week Schmid participated on another panel with Riehmond Fed's Barkin and Boston Fed's Susan Colling

• Supported September’s rate hike, alongside Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin and Boston Fed President Susan Collins.
• Inflation remains the priority, with a broadly stable economy giving the Fed room to focus on restoring price stability.
• Said the Fed still has work to do to fulfill the inflation side of its mandate.
• Higher borrowing costs are affecting housing and commercial credit.axios.com

My read: Schmid remains focused on inflation, while recognizing that higher…

The broader US stock indices are on pace for new record closes, but beneath those headline gains, the leadership picture looks different. The once-dominant Magnificent Seven are not all sharing in the record-setting run. Nvidia remains the standout, while the other six have more work(and for some "a lot" of work) to match the strength of the indices.

That divergence has been a recurring theme this year. There have been periods when investors rotated toward semiconductor companies outside the Magnificent Seven, including AMD, Micron and Intel. The AI story has also become more selective: investors are weighing the benefits flowing to infrastructure suppliers against the enormous spending commitments—and still-developing returns—of the…

Nasdaq Futures Pull Back Toward Support, but the Broader Uptrend Is Still Intact

Nasdaq-100 futures are losing short-term momentum after a strong multi-session advance, but the pullback has not yet developed into a broader bearish reversal. The key test is now around 31,480-31,500. Holding that area would keep the larger bullish structure intact, while breaking it and then failing to recover it would make the downside case more serious.

The distinction matters because a market can be bullish over several sessions while sellers temporarily control the next swing.

NQ has weakened, but sellers have not taken full control

The latest price sequence has become less favorable for buyers.

After advancing strongly over several sessions, NQ has started…

San Francisco Fed president Mary Daly, speaking to Axios, outlined how overlapping inflation risks will shape her outlook for further rate hikes:

• AI-related supply pressures could last beyond the one-to-three-year period over which the Fed typically expects shocks to fade.
• Some businesses are securing future memory-chip supplies and redesigning products to reduce their reliance on chips.
• AI demand could compete for chips used in cars, appliances and other goods, spreading price pressures beyond data centers.
• Increasing reliance on borrowing could make those large technology companies more sensitive to financing costs.
• Believes tighter policy can restrain inflation even if the biggest AI spenders are relatively insensitive to interest…

Bank of Japan board member Sato supports raising interest rates in stages but expressed concern about weakening personal consumption, according to Kyodo:

• Expressed concern about weakening personal consumption and avoided specifying when the next interest rate hike would occur.
• “Agrees with the policy of adjusting (the policy interest rate) in stages,” aligning with the Bank of Japan’s stance of continuing to raise interest rates.

Analysis: The message leans hawkish on direction but cautious on timing. Sato supports further rate hikes, but the concern about consumption suggests the pace still matters. Higher rates can help contain inflation, but they can also put more pressure on household spending.

For yen traders, support for further…

Crude oil is trading lower in trading today and in doing so, is breaking below some key technical targets. In the video above, I talk to the technical levels in play and outline what you should look for as a trader. 

The Fundamental picture is focused on the positive.

The more recent fundamental picture for crude oil is helping to push the price lower as continued diplomacy, reassurance over Saudi oil flows and last week’s agreement to release emergency energy reserves help ease immediate supply concerns.

Qatar says the US and Iran remain engaged in talks, while Iranian Interior Minister Momeni described discussions with Qatar’s Emir as “constructive.” Those headlines suggest diplomacy remains active despite the ongoing conflict, giving…

When an instrument moves to a new all-time high, buyers are in control. But traders face a practical question: Where is the next upside target?

Normally, we can look back at a chart and identify previous swing highs where sellers entered the market. At new all-time highs, those reference points are no longer above the price. The market is moving into territory where it has never traded before.

That is where Fibonacci extensions can help.

Measuring beyond the previous high

Most traders are familiar with Fibonacci retracements. The 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% levels help measure how much of a prior move has been given back during a correction.

Extensions take that measurement beyond the original range. Instead of asking how far the price might pull…

Bitcoin is trading in a narrow range so far today, with a low of $85,131 and a high of $86,375. The current price is near $86,163, toward the upper end of that range.

The buyers have a modest technical advantage. However, they still need to clear overhead resistance to give the next move higher more momentum.

In the video above, I take a detailed look at the digital currency and explain in detail the compression and what traders should be on the lookout for.  

Rising moving averages support the buyers

The price has dipped briefly below its rising 100-hour moving average at $85,373, but those breaks have been modest and have failed to attract sustained selling. That suggests buyers remain willing to step in on dips.

Below that, the 200-hour…