Market News

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

 

The Solana Foundation launched Solana DvP (Delivery-versus-Payment) today, an open-source settlement infrastructure designed for financial institutions. It allows the asset and cash legs of a transaction to settle atomically in a single transaction, with input from J.P. Morgan. This directly targets the institutional tokenization/settlement use case rather than just speculative crypto activity.

On the macro side, the crypto market found some support recently from the dovish repricing in Fed interest rate expectations after Fed’s Williams and Fed’s Jefferson pushed back against an October rate hike. Moreover, the softer than expected US NFP report on…

Headlines:

• EUR/USD rebounds as French government takes steps to reduce deficit, narrowing OAT-Bund spread
• Ethereum consolidates at a major trendline as Glamsterdam hits Sepolia testnet. What's next?
• The price action in gold remains rangebound as US-Iran stalemate and CPI risk cap the upside
• Connecting the dots: How France’s budget problems are turning into the euro’s problem
• France is having its Liz Truss moment as the bond market forces a policy rethink. Why it's a good thing.
• Macro pulse: France-Germany yield spread breakout puts euro area contagion risk in focus
• European stock market open: Stocks extend rebound but France continues to lag
• Market breadth divergence: What it tells traders about the stock market
• iFX EXPO Asia 2026 Begins Tomorrow…

• Prior month -92.8 billion

Details from the BEA:

• Goods and services deficit: $105.6 billion. Prior $92.8 billion, revised.
• Deficit widened $12.7 billion, or 13.7%, from July.
• Exports: $315.2 billion, up $4.5 billion or 1.4%.
• Imports: $420.8 billion, up $17.2 billion or 4.3%.
• Goods deficit: $136.6 billion, widening $12.8 billion.
• Services surplus: $31.0 billion, little changed.
• Real goods deficit: $114.7 billion, widening 8.2%.
• Year-to-date deficit: Down 19.9% from the same period in 2025.

The US trade deficit widened sharply in August as imports increased much faster than exports. The Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a $105.6 billion goods and services deficit, compared with a revised $92.8 billion in July.

The import increase…

• Prior was +0.77 billion (revised to 0.79 billion)
• Exports: +2.5% MoM. Prior -2.6%
• Imports: -2.0% MoM. Prior +8.3%

Canada's merchandise trade surplus widened sharply to C$4.2 billion in August, from C$787 million in July, as exports increased while imports declined. The result marked Canada's sixth consecutive monthly trade surplus, with merchandise exports rising 2.5% and imports falling 2.0%.

Exports increased across eight of 11 product categories, with energy exports rising 4.7%, their first increase since April. Exports of industrial machinery, equipment and parts jumped 10.1%, while electronic and electrical equipment exports increased 11.0%. Consumer goods exports also rose 6.6%. In real, or volume, terms, total exports increased…

In the morning video above, I take a look at the three major currency pairs—EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD—from a technical perspective. For each pair, I outline the bias, the risk-defining levels and the targets that would give either the buyers or sellers more control.

U.S. stock futures are pointing higher to start the North American session, with the Nasdaq 100 positioned for another record close if the gains hold through the trading day. The S&P 500 is also approaching its record closing level of 7798.98.

The move comes with Treasury yields lower across the curve and crude oil extending its decline despite renewed Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. That combination gives stock buyers a more supportive backdrop, although the Middle East remains…

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Together, these conditions give traders greater flexibility to access opportunities outside…

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

 

USD:

The US dollar has been supported recently despite a dovish repricing triggered by Fed’s Williams and Fed’s Jefferson comments that pushed back against expectations of a rate hike in October.

The main reason were risk-off flows into the greenback due to European debt concerns. The focus has been particularly on France, where political uncertainty and concerns over the country's large fiscal deficit have pushed French government bond yields higher and widened the spread over German Bunds to its highest level since the eurozone debt crisis.

A stabilization in French spreads could allow some of the euro's risk premium to unwind and trigger…

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

 

Ethereum's Glamsterdam upgrade activates on the Sepolia testnet today. The upgrade is focused on scaling Ethereum's L1. The market will be watching the testnet for successful activation, bugs or implementation problems and progress toward the mainnet deployment. Ethereum is targeting mainnet for Q4 2026, so a mainnet date could itself become a catalyst.

Glamsterdam is important for Ethereum because it is designed to increase the network’s capacity and scalability. The increased capacity could ultimately lead to additional network usage and demand for Ethereum blockspace that translates into greater economic value.

On the macro side, we’ve got a…

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

 

Gold briefly probed below last week’s low yesterday but eventually erased the losses as oil prices and Treasury yields pulled back.

The US-Iran developments and Fed interest rates repricing have been the main drivers for a long time. The Middle East situation is now relatively calm as there’s been a de-escalation since the UN General Assembly, although the usual strikes on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz persist as Iran tries to defend its blockade.

On the monetary policy side, Fed’s Williams and Fed’s Jefferson pushed back against the October rate hike expectations and the softer than expected US NFP report on Friday reduced the hike probabilities to…

IC – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 06 October 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

The economy remained relatively strong, with U.S. services activity expanding, but the jump in the ISM prices index to 74.0 highlighted renewed inflation pressure. This kept Treasury yields elevated and supported the dollar. At the same time, French fiscal concerns pushed the euro to a 17-month low, while the announcement of coordinated G7 emergency oil-stock releases and improving Middle Eastern exports pressured crude prices lower. U.S. equities nevertheless remained strong, with the Nasdaq reaching a record high.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

The biggest Asian-market event on Tuesday is BOJ Governor Ueda’s speech, particularly because Japanese…

IC – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 06 October 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Asia is starting the session with a generally risk-on tone, helped by the record Nasdaq close, strong AI/technology shares, and lower oil prices. However, the picture is not uniformly positive: very high global bond yields, Japanese fiscal concerns, and elevated inflation in the Philippines are keeping monetary policy firmly in focus. For traders, USD/JPY and the yen are the most important instruments to watch around Ueda’s speech, while oil remains vulnerable to further downside if supply concerns continue to ease.

What does it mean for the European & US sessions?

Markets are balancing strong U.S. asset-market momentum against rising Treasury yields and…