FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
Ethereum’s Glamsterdam
upgrade activates on the Sepolia testnet today. The upgrade is focused on
scaling Ethereum’s L1. The market will be watching the testnet for successful
activation, bugs or implementation problems and progress toward the mainnet
deployment. Ethereum is targeting mainnet for Q4 2026, so a mainnet date could
itself become a catalyst.
Glamsterdam
is important for Ethereum because it is designed to increase the network’s
capacity and scalability. The increased capacity could ultimately lead to
additional network usage and demand for Ethereum blockspace that translates
into greater economic value.
On the macro side, we’ve got a dovish repricing
recently in Fed interest rate expectations after Fed’s Williams and Fed’s Jefferson
pushed back against an October rate hike. Moreover, the softer than expected US
NFP report on Friday reduced the probabilities for a near-term Fed action
further, with traders now pricing just a 21% chance of a hike in October.
Given a very light calendar this week, the focus will likely remain on
US-Iran developments. If we get a breakthrough, we can expect oil prices to
drop significantly and give Ethereum a boost on lower rate hike expectations
and positive risk sentiment. Another escalation, on the other hand, will likely
send crude oil higher and weigh on the crypto market.
ETHEREUM TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME
On the daily chart, we can
see that Ethereum is finally testing the major upward trendline.
This is where we can expect the buyers to step in, with a defined risk below
the trendline, to position for a rally into the 3,000 level. The sellers, on
the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to pile in for a drop
into the 2,360 support next.
ETHEREUM TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see the price briefly probed above the 2,740 resistance last week but
eventually gave back all the gains. We still have a range between the 2,740
resistance and the 2,630 support. Even if we get a break of the trendline, the
price might still bounce around the support as the buyers might try to defend
the last line before a potential selloff to 2,360.
In the meantime, we can
expect the buyers to continue to lean on the trendline to position for a rally
into new highs and increase the bullish bets on the break of the resistance.
The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break below the trendline to pile
in for a correction into the 2,360 level and increase the bearish bets on a
break below the 2,630 level.
ETHEREUM TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 1 hour chart, we
have a minor downward trendline defining the recent pullback into the major
trendline. The sellers will likely continue to lean on the downward trendline,
with a defined risk above it, to keep pushing into new lows. The buyers, on the
other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into new
highs.
UPCOMING CATALYSTS
Tomorrowwe
have the FOMC meeting minutes. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims
figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the University of Michigan
Consumer Sentiment survey.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.