Market News

BOJ governor, Kazuo Ueda, is speaking in Tokyo and there doesn't seem to be any major surprises in his remarks. The message remains quite clear that the central bank still sees room to raise interest rates further.

Here are some of the key comments from Ueda:

• Underlying inflation is approaching 2%
• Economy, prices are moving in line with our baseline forecasts
• Even after September rate hike, accommodative financial conditions continue to support economic recovery
• Will continue to raise policy rate in accordance with economic, price, financial developments
• The pace and timing of future policy adjustments will be decided based on likelihood of our baseline projections materialising as well as the associated risks

The one that catches my attention…

Gold has come under renewed pressure again today as the bond market turns up the heat once more.

The precious metal is trading down 0.3% to $4,125 and remains some distance from the highs above $4,600 just a few weeks ago. The latest breakout in Treasury yields is continuing to make life rather difficult for gold. Now, that part of the story is relatively straightforward. Higher yields raise the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset like gold, which helps explain much of the recent pullback.

While the price momentum is weak, investor positioning tells a slightly different story.

Looking at the chart below, gold prices have fallen sharply from their recent highs but holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust are still sitting close to their…

There aren't any major expiry levels to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below.

On their own, the individual expiry levels are not sizable enough to offer much impact in pulling price action. But for USD/JPY, the cluster around 158.00-05 might offer some potential when put together.

When paired up, the size of the expiry region is slightly over $1 billion and they are resting near the current spot level - less than 10 pips away. That could make the 158.00-05 region plausibly relevant into the cut later today as the psychological importance of the 158.00 level offers some potential for some short-term pinning flows around the expiry.

But from a technical perspective, the confluence of the 100 and 200-hour moving averages at…

Even if there likely won't be another rate hike this month, the BOJ appears to be preparing to take another step towards further policy tightening.

The latest report from Reuters notes that the BOJ could signal in its October quarterly outlook that underlying inflation has roughly reached its 2% target, according to sources familiar with the central bank's thinking.

Now, that's quite significant from a symbolic sense. For a central bank that has spent years trying to generate sustainable inflation, that would mark a meaningful shift in the policy backdrop. And that underscores the readiness to raise interest rates again in the coming months.

In other words, the shift is not a guarantee that rate hikes will follow but it does reinforce market…

1IN10, a Trading Data Valuation Platform, will take part in iFX EXPO Asia 2026 in Hong Kong, where it plans to present its service model and meet visitors interested in trading data valuation and the potential commercial uses of trading records.

Operated by 1IN10 Data Labs Limited, a Hong Kong-incorporated technology company, the platform examines the decisions and behavioural patterns reflected in trading activity. It connects the generation and analysis of trading data with further valuation and potential Commercial Licensing.

At the expo, the team plans to walk visitors through this approach with service presentations and demonstration materials, explaining how…

WTI crude oil is showing early signs of stabilizing after its September selloff. Buyers have defended a higher low and held a small breakout during a pullback, giving the rebound more credibility. However, the broader decline remains unrepaired: holding around $89.50 and clearing $90 would be the next steps, while $90.85-$91.31 presents a more important test.

The oil news offers a similarly mixed picture. Recovering shipments through the Strait of Hormuz could restrain crude prices, while depleted inventories and persistent diesel shortages leave energy markets exposed to further disruption. That combination supports a conditional recovery outlook rather than a confident call that oil has bottomed.

The latest completed bar in the supplied…

The bond market continues to remain a headache for investors, as long-end Treasury yields are threatening to break higher again this week.

The softer US jobs report on Friday last week was exactly the kind of data that should have taken some pressure off rates. Non-farm payrolls rose by just 29k, well below expectations around 90k, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%. Adding to that, wage growth also cooled.

And initially, the bond market reacted exactly as you might expect it to. 10-year Treasury yields fell sharply towards 5.16% on the release as traders scaled back expectations for another Fed rate hike in October.

However, that relief was rather short-lived.

Yields quickly reversed the entire drop and have since pushed back…

• Solana launches open settlement standard for institutions, with JPMorgan input
• ICYMI: Citi raises bitcoin target to $113,000 and ether to $3,028 as crypto inflows return
• Reports that Hormuz crude flows near 76% of prewar levels. Diesel shortage persists.
• Trump's red diesel order unlikely to cut most pump prices, says GasBuddy's De Haan
• S&P 500 defies midterm slump as Bank of America says history favours post-election gains
• Morgan Stanley turns neutral on dollar with bullish skew, stays bearish on yen
• Chalmers warns rising global bond yields will pressure Australia's federal budget
• Nvidia nears $6 trillion as bonds flash warnings: Deutsche Bank says the gap cannot last
• Trump signs order opening tax-free red-dyed diesel to all buyers as fuel costs…

Solana launches open settlement standard for institutions: what JPMorgan's role actually means

The Solana Foundation has launched Solana DvP, an open-source program designed to let banks and other financial institutions settle trades of tokenised assets on the Solana blockchain in a single step. The foundation announced it in New York on Monday, 5 October, and said JPMorgan provided input on institutional settlement practices during development.

The headline link to JPMorgan is the part readers should look at most carefully. The program is new and potentially useful, but it is not yet evidence that big banks are moving trades onto Solana.

What happened

Solana DvP is an escrow program released under the MIT licence, which means anyone can use,…

Citi's upgrade adds tier-one support to the recovery in crypto, which may encourage institutional buyers who have held back since bitcoin's slide from its record high. The forecast's reliance on steady ETF inflows makes weekly flow data a key signal, especially after last week's sharp slowdown. The differing upside targets favour bitcoin over ether, which could shift relative positioning between the two after ether's outperformance. Macro remains the swing factor, with dollar strength or a further rise in Treasury yields the main threats to the bank's outlook.

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Earlier:

• A year after its $126,000 peak, bitcoin trades like a rates bet, not an inflation hedge

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Citi has turned more bullish on crypto, but its bet is on bitcoin rather than…

The split between recovering crude flows and scarce refined products points to a market where crude prices may ease while diesel stays expensive, keeping refining margins and diesel crack spreads elevated. That favours refiners with working capacity, particularly in the US, and adds pressure on governments facing fuel-driven inflation. Higher Saudi exports add to crude supply but do little to ease product shortages until Asian refiners lift fuel exports. Renewed Iranian attacks on shipping remain the key upside risk for both crude and diesel, with thin inventories leaving little room to absorb another disruption.

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Earlier:

• Trump signs order opening tax-free red-dyed diesel to all buyers as fuel costs bite
• Trump's red diesel order unlikely…

De Haan's analysis reinforces that the order does nothing for diesel supply, so futures and crack spreads should remain driven by Middle East flows, low inventories and emergency stock releases rather than tax policy. Any switch to dyed diesel in the handful of states that allow it could tighten local supplies of off-road fuel during harvest, adding to regional price pressure. A possible deferred tax bill may also discourage uptake among fleets, limiting the demand shift. The analysis keeps attention on Congress, where a full federal diesel tax suspension would have a broader but still modest effect on prices.

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Trump has painted the diesel tax break red, but GasBuddy's De Haan says state laws, a possible deferred bill and empty…