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Coming from the head of the world's second-largest official gold holder, Nagel's remarks reinforce the structural case that has kept gold above $4,000 despite multi-decade-high Treasury yields. Official-sector diversification, driven by sanctions risk and concerns over sovereign debt, is acting as a floor under prices even as rate expectations weigh on the metal. The Bank of Italy's point that gold's inverse link to real yields has weakened matters for traders. It suggests rate moves may hit gold less hard than history implies. The main counterweight is the Metals Focus forecast of slower central bank buying this year, which leaves gold more reliant on investment demand to recover. This week's Fed minutes remain the near-term driver.

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Firms widely expect interest rates to rise over the coming year, and signs that spare capacity is shrinking would support that view. Easing cost and pricing gauges, however, give the Reserve Bank of New Zealand some room on the inflation side. Oil is the main swing factor: the renewed US-Iran conflict has lifted fuel prices again, and further gains would test NZIER's view that the energy shock is not yet spreading into broader inflation. For the New Zealand dollar, the survey offers modest support through firmer growth and rate expectations, though the gap between optimism and actual activity tempers the signal.

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New Zealand firms have rarely felt this good about an economy they are not yet seeing in their own order books, with oil the…

If the gap closes through a broad risk-off move rather than easing stress, Deutsche Bank sees the US dollar gaining another source of support, while the euro and high-beta currencies look more exposed. The euro faces a double headwind: wider French and Italian spreads point to fragmentation risk inside the currency bloc itself. Oil is part of the inflation pressure pushing yields higher, and Deutsche Bank's point that futures still price normalisation next year suggests energy risk may be underpriced across the curve. For equity investors, record-adjacent prices leave little cushion if credit spreads begin to catch up with sovereign stress.

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Europe's bond market just had its sharpest sovereign shock in decades and equities shrugged, a…

• The Nasdaq composite and NASDAQ 100 leads US stocks higher
• BoJ's Ueda in focus as markets weigh a back-to-back October rate hike
• Crude oil technicals: Middle east tension has crude oil futures moving higher.What next technically?
• You Have to BELIEVE in something: Why I trust the 100 and 200 moving averages
• ISM non- manufacturing PMI 54.9 versus 55.2 estimate
• S&P global composite PMI for September 58.4 versus 58.4 preliminary
• Bitcoin rally stalls below $87,334. What must buyers and sellers do next?
• Why a weak jobs report does not always mean a weak economy
• Morning Kickstart: Dollar firms, stock futures slip ahead of ISM services
• investingLive European session wrap: Dollar firms as yields stay elevated, French risks weigh on euro

The Nasdaq Composite…

Five of the Magnificent Seven rise as the Nasdaq Composite gains 1.05%; the Dow posts a more modest advance.

U.S. stocks closed higher to start the new trading week, with the Nasdaq Composite leading the way. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 also posted solid gains, while the Dow lagged but still finished in positive territory.

Optimism about corporate earnings and continued interest in large technology companies helped support the market. Friday’s weaker jobs report also reduced expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hike this month. Nvidia and Microsoft were among the stocks supporting Monday’s advance.

However, the gains were selective. Apple and Amazon slipped, while Intel and several AI infrastructure names moved lower. Buyers were…

Summary:

• Ueda addresses the National Securities Convention in Tokyo on Tuesday, his first major remarks since the September hike to 1.25%.
• 2.35pm Tokyo time / 0635 GMT / 0235 US Eastern time 
• Markets see an October hike as the less likely outcome, with one estimate near one in four.
• July minutes showed a hawkish tilt. September's summary of opinions included a view that there is no need to rush.
• Deputy Governor Uchida said on Monday that AI is a positive demand shock adding upward pressure on activity and prices.
• USD/JPY briefly dipped to around 157.5 after Uchida's remarks before recovering toward 158.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda addresses the National Securities Convention in Tokyo on Tuesday. These are his first major public remarks…

China remains on holiday. Mainland markets reopen on 8 October. 

During the Tokyo afternoon today we'll hear from Bank of Japan Governor Ueda. I'll get a preview of this posted separately. 

The AUD is the lone wolf against the US dollar today, gaining ground while the other major currencies are lower versus the greenback.

Buyers build on last week’s support

Technically, the recovery got its start last week when buyers held support within the swing area between 0.69056 and 0.69205. Sellers could not push through that floor, and the price rotated back to the upside heading into the weekend.

In trading today, an initial move lower found support near 0.69334. Buyers leaned against that level and restarted the move higher, pushing the pair back into swing-area resistance between 0.69619 and 0.69778. The high reached 0.6973, with the current price just below that level at 0.6971.

Above 0.69778 would strengthen the bullish bias

The…

The USDCHF has rebounded after last week’s sharp correction, but the buyers still have work to do. The recovery has brought the price back between its 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages, with a rising trendline also cutting through the immediate trading area.

That leaves traders with a clearly defined technical battle. Buyers have recovered some ground, but getting above and staying above the 100-hour moving average is needed to strengthen their case. Sellers need to push back below the 200-hour moving average and the trendline to put the downside back in play.

Buyers recover, but resistance remains

The hourly chart shows a strong advance from the August low, followed by a sharp pullback from the recent high near 0.83821. That decline…

In trading and in life, you need to BELIEVE in something.

You might believe in your spouse or your children. You might believe in your faith. If you are an athlete, you need to believe in yourself and your team, especially when things are not going your way.

Traders need to believe in themselves and their abilities too. But where does that confidence come from?

For me, it starts with having a way to trade that makes sense. Something I can see, understand, and apply consistently. Something that helps me define my risk, limit my risk, and accept my risk.

That is why I believe in technical analysis. It is the foundation of what I teach on InvestingLive.com.

Taking that a step further, I believe traders need a set of technical tools they trust.…

The USDCAD has been trending higher since bottoming in early September near 1.3750. Buyers have remained firmly in control, with the rising 100-hour moving average providing a reliable floor during the recent advance.

There have been only two hourly bars below that moving average over the stretch described: one on Wednesday following the slightly weaker PCE report and another on Friday after the weaker-than-expected US jobs report. Both breaks were quickly rejected. Sellers had their opportunities, but could not build on them.

The price subsequently extended to new highs for the year on Thursday and again on Friday. Today, that upward bias continued, taking the pair to 1.4293. However, this time buyers ran into a key resistance target—and…

The price of crude oil has seen up and down trading today with resistance at the open leaning against a technical target and the subsequent move lower also finding traders leaning against a technical target - this time on the downside. 

What were those levels?

Crude oil started the day higher, testing its 200-hour moving average near $91.85. Sellers leaned against that level as risk can be defined and limited against the levels. Traders love levels where they can "risk a little to potentially make more than a little". That is what they did and that stalle helped to push the price lower.

The rotatation lower saw the price move back below the $90, but when the price approached a swing area low target, buyers entered.  The decline stalled at…