Market News

IC – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 05 October 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

The overnight market was primarily shaped by the weak U.S. September employment report, which significantly reduced expectations for an October Fed hike. The resulting decline in rate expectations weighed on the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields while supporting gold and equities, particularly technology stocks. Oil remained volatile, with Middle East tensions and risks to Gulf energy infrastructure providing upside support, but rising regional exports and the G7’s planned emergency-stock release limited the bullish effect.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

The main focus for Asian traders on Monday is the weaker U.S. jobs report and its impact on Fed…

IC – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 05 October 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

The sharp reduction in expectations for an October Fed rate hike weakened the dollar and supported Asian equities, with Japan’s Nikkei leading gains. Japan’s softer-than-expected services PMI and Australia’s cooling inflation gauge were the main regional macro releases, although neither produced a major market shock. Gold remained supported by lower-rate expectations and geopolitical risk, while oil stayed above $100 as Middle East tensions offset the bearish impact of additional supply and the G7 reserve release.

What does it mean for the European & US sessions?

The European session starts with the euro under significant pressure from France’s fiscal…

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

Crude oil has been stuck in a consolidation recently as the market turned its focus to US-Iran negotiations, awaiting some new development.

The good news is that since the UN General Assembly, there’s been a de-escalation in direct US-Iran confrontation, although attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz persist as Iran defends its blockade.

Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf reiterated over the weekend that the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen until the Iranian conditions are fulfilled. Tehran said it has received a US response through mediators but that additional points still need to be communicated.

Iran's Foreign Minister…

Delta Air Lines will be reporting its third-quarter earnings on Friday and there will be more that meets the eye than just whether the numbers will beat expectations. I would argue that the focus should be more centered on whether travellers are still willing to pay enough to help the airline absorb another period of elevated fuel costs.

To put things into context, that has already been the story for Delta for much of this year. The US-Iran conflict has led to surging energy prices and it is unsurprising that airlines are among those that are the most impacted.

Just in the second quarter, Delta saw its adjusted fuel expense surge by 77% from a year earlier to $4.4 billion with the average fuel price rising to $3.93 per gallon. And…

●         Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 2.28%, Shanghai Composite up 0.31% Hang Seng down 0.26% ASX up 0.11%

●        Commodities : Gold at $4,172.87 (0.24%) Silver at $61.548 (1.87%), Brent Oil at 101.52 (-0.69%), WTI Oil at 90.10 (-1.13%)

●        Rates : US 10-year yield at 5.264, UK 10-year yield at 5.3710, Germany 10-year yield at 3.4545

●        (USD)     Average Hourly Earnings m/m

       0.1% to 0.3%  expected

Stock futures were little changed Sunday evening as elevated Treasury yields weighed on investor sentiment, with markets awaiting minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting for clues about the central bank’s next interest rate move.

Dow Jones…

Libertex Group has announced its attendance at iFX EXPO Asia 2026 as a Platinum Sponsor. The event sponsorship grants the nearly 30-year-old global fintech powerhouse a prominent position on the expo floor at Booth #60.

From 7-9th of October, the Libertex Group will be showcasing two of its core brands, LBX and Forex Club. The team will be striking up conversations with industry professionals and traders to discuss the brands’ offerings, partnerships and their award-winning Introducing Broker (IB) and Affiliate Programmes.

Trusted since 1997, the Libertex Group has steadily grown into a multibrand retail trading powerhouse known for its integrity and competitive offerings, serving millions of traders throughout Europe, Latin America and…

• Eurozone September final services PMI 53.0 vs 53.0 prelim
• Prior 51.6
• Eurozone September final composite PMI 53.1 vs 53.1 prelim
• Prior 52.0

The breakdownThe final numbers reaffirm what we already know from the preliminary estimates, as private sector business activity increased at the quickest rate in nearly three-and-a-half years.

That comes amid a continued improvement in demand conditions in September, completing a full quarter of growth. Overall, the pace of increase ticked up to a 41-month high.

The growth in the region was broad-based as output in both the manufacturing and service industries expanded at faster rates at the end of the third quarter. It was a similar story at the national level, with all five of the countries with Composite…

• Eurozone October Sentix investor confidence 2.7 vs 5.0 expected
• Prior 5.1

The mood among euro area investors has taken a step back in October, with the details being slightly more telling than the headline drop itself.

The Sentix investor confidence index fell to 2.7 in October from 5.1 in the month before, missing expectations and pulling back from the more than four-year high in September.

That being said, investors aren't necessarily saying that conditions have suddenly deteriorated. The current situation index was unchanged at -3.3. Instead, it was expectations that took the hit - falling by 5 points to 8.8.

The readings here offer a more interesting mix to markets alongside the stronger Eurozone PMI figures released earlier today. It is a…

• Prior 52.5
• Final Composite PMI 52.0 vs 51.7 prelim
• Prior 52.5

Key findings:

• Service sector output rises for third month in a row
• Input cost inflation strongest since June amid surging fuel prices
• Business optimism moderates from August's six month high

Comment:

Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:

"Moderate output growth was maintained across the UK service economy in September, albeit with a loss of momentum in comparison to August. Moreover, subdued demand conditions and rising inflationary pressures contributed to weaker business activity expectations for the year ahead.

"New order intakes increased only slightly in September and at the slowest pace for three months. Geopolitical tensions, squeezed consumer…