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The Nikkei's outperformance versus the Topix shows a narrow, tech-led rally sensitive to global AI sentiment and US rate expectations, not a broad re-rating of Japanese equities. The softer Fed outlook is supportive for risk, but it cuts both ways for Japan. A stronger yen, if the BOJ hikes while the Fed pauses, would weigh on exporters and could cap gains. This week's Fed minutes are the next test: a hawkish tone could quickly reverse Friday's relief rally. With oil still elevated and service-sector prices rising fast, the backdrop for a BOJ move remains in place, which is a headwind for the yen-sensitive parts of the market.

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Earlier:

• BOJ's Uchida says AI is a big demand shock lifting prices, warns of correction risk

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Japan's AI…

The surprise cut is a bearish signal for Middle East crude in Asia. It shows Aramco prioritising volumes and market share over price as regional exports recover to near pre-war levels. Competing Gulf producers may come under pressure to follow, and Asian refiners are likely to take more Saudi term barrels, which could weigh on Dubai-linked spot grades. The deeper $5 cut to medium and heavy grades points to particular weakness in sour crude demand, or a determination to place those barrels. The split with Europe, where prices rose $3, shows how the Hormuz route now carries a real cost: Asian buyers are being compensated for freight and security risk that Red Sea cargoes avoid. For Brent, still around $100, this reinforces the view that…

The minutes carry asymmetric risk for markets that have already priced out much of an October move. A dovish-leaning account would confirm that repricing and could extend the softening in front-end Treasury yields and the dollar. That would offer some support to gold, which has been weighed down by expectations of further hikes. A hawkish account, emphasising stubborn inflation, could push October odds back up and lift yields again. With energy prices still elevated because of the Iran war, any discussion of oil feeding into inflation will be watched closely as a reason for officials to keep tightening despite softer activity data. Bowman's Tuesday speech is a potential early signal before the minutes land.

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The Fed told markets in…

The early price action shows supply-side relief winning out, for now, over geopolitical risk. The G7's emergency barrels and recovering Gulf exports are capping rallies despite repeated attacks on regional infrastructure. Aramco's surprise price cut for Asia is a bearish signal for physical markets: it suggests Saudi Arabia is prioritising volumes as flows recover, which could pressure competing Middle East grades and narrow Brent's premium. The downside still looks limited while Brent holds around $100. Any confirmed damage to Saudi facilities, an escalation in Yemen, or fresh disruption in Hormuz could quickly rebuild the risk premium. Ukraine's pledge to intensify refinery strikes adds a separate upside risk for refined products,…

The call matters because it comes after a heavy shakeout, and positioning that stretched tends to amplify any rebound once selling is exhausted. Deutsche's warning about thin liquidity over Golden Week suggests one more flush lower is possible before a base forms, so near-term volatility could stay high. The Fed's tightening path and 5% yields remain the main headwind. Ghali's case is that official-sector demand now outweighs that rate drag. Oil above $100 is a double-edged factor: it supports gold as an inflation and geopolitical hedge, but feeds the higher yields that weigh on it. For the wider complex, the contrast between silver oversupply and copper scarcity points to relative-value trades over a broad metals bet.

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Earlier,

• Asian…

Markets are unlikely to react unless the situation escalates, as contacts have so far tested negative and officials insist there is no outbreak. The main risk is confirmation of plague with secondary cases among those under observation, which could stoke broader health-scare headlines and modest safe-haven demand. Local industry is the most exposed channel: precautions at the nearby aluminium smelter bear watching, given aluminium supply is already tight because of Middle East disruption. The three-week observation window ending in late October is the natural point at which the scare should either fade or harden.

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Earlier:

• Uh-oh, "lab leak" news again ... Russian plague lab worker, 28, dies of unknown pneumonia

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A death at a Siberian…

A widely shared post over the weekend claimed BlackRock had bought around $1.6 billion of Bitcoin "this month," citing on-chain data from Arkham. The figure actually covers the past month, so mostly September. It reflects investors buying BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), not BlackRock buying for its own account. The stronger story is how closely those flows tracked Bitcoin's recovery, and what the late-month slowdown might mean.

What the BlackRock number really measures

IBIT is a spot Bitcoin ETF. When investors buy more of its shares than they sell, new shares are created and the fund buys Bitcoin to back them, which is held by a custodian. When investors sell more than they buy, shares are redeemed and Bitcoin leaves the fund.…

Oil is the main channel here. The surge in energy prices tied to the Middle East conflict lifted milk powder and aluminium, the main drivers of September's gains. Combined with a weaker New Zealand dollar, that gives exporters a solid boost in local-currency returns, which supports farm incomes and the terms of trade. The flip side is higher import and freight costs, which add to domestic inflation pressure. That could complicate the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's task. If US rates keep pressuring the kiwi lower, the local-currency boost to export earnings is likely to persist. Any easing in oil prices, however, could quickly reverse milk powder's run.

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Oil is doing New Zealand's dairy farmers a favour and a weak kiwi is doubling it,…

The survey leans hawkish for the BOJ despite softer headline growth. Output price inflation near record highs, rising payrolls and building backlogs point to capacity pressure that supports the case for another hike. S&P Global explicitly flags October as possible, which may firm up market pricing for a near-term move. That's supportive for the yen and a source of upward pressure on front-end JGB yields. Oil was named among the cost drivers, so the Middle East energy shock is feeding directly into Japanese service prices, reinforcing the inflation case. Weak export demand and earthquake disruption are the main soft spots that could give the BOJ pause.

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Earlier:

• BOJ's Uchida says AI is a big demand shock lifting prices, warns of correction…

Uchida describes AI as an inflationary demand shock that has loosened financial conditions, which leans hawkish. It argues that the BOJ's tightening has more to do, without signalling a timetable. That supports the yen at the margin and keeps further BOJ hike expectations intact. His point that AI-related bond supply is pushing up long-term yields adds a new, non-monetary explanation for the pressure on global bond markets, including JGBs. The warning about a correction if profits don't follow is a reminder that the central bank is watching equity valuations, so any AI-led selloff could feed straight into its assessment of financial conditions.

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The BOJ sees AI as a demand boom first and a productivity story later, which means more…

The call lines up two forces that are moving in opposite directions: falling euro-area front-end yields as markets pare ECB hike bets, and a yen supported by prospective BoJ tightening and safe-haven demand. The cross is exposed to further risk-off episodes, because a rise in volatility tends to accelerate carry unwinds funded in yen. A renewed widening in French spreads would likely be the trigger for the next leg lower. Conversely, any sign that forced OAT selling is exhausting, or that the French budget passes smoothly, could spark a sharp short-covering rally in the euro. The Iran war's energy price shock adds to Japan's import bill, which could temper the yen's gains if oil spikes again.

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Earlier:

• French stock market says 'au revoir'

In the short run, Fed tightening and rising long-term yields dominate gold. Further hike expectations are likely to cap rallies until the end point for US rates becomes clearer. The resource nationalism trend is a slower-moving supply story, and it argues for buying the dips over a multi-year horizon. If more producers refine at home and restrict exports, the pool of metal available to international refiners and the London market could shrink. That would make prices more sensitive to central bank and investment demand. Persistent official buying, led by China, adds a steady floor of demand that rate moves alone don't remove.

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Earlier, the $4K level contention:

• Oil is gold's biggest enemy right now, Bank of America warns. Downside risk…