Market News

Gold is trading up 0.4% to $4,170 levels today and has managed to steady itself somewhat this week. That being said, I wouldn't label the price action as being particularly convincing just yet.

The bigger picture is still about what is happening in the bond market. Gold was hammered at the start of the week on Monday, falling by as much as 4% to around $4,110 as US Treasury yields surged and markets continued to wrestle with the prospect of rates staying higher for longer.

And while the precious metal has since bounced back towards $4,200 overnight, Treasury yields aren't exactly giving gold buyers much breathing room. 10-year yields remain close to multi-decade highs, hovering around 5.28% today after briefly testing the 5.30% region…

• Oil executives expect WTI near $88 by year-end, below current prices, Dallas Fed survey shows
• ICYMI: BOJ opinions and tankan both point to more rate hikes after September's move
• Australia's August trade surplus shrinks to A$495M as data center equipment imports surge
• Australia: RBA dice que la mayoría de los hipotecados mantienen su capital incluso si los precios de la vivienda caen otro 20%
• Australia: RBA says most mortgage holders keep equity even if house prices fall another 20%
• Three themes TD Cowen says will shape the next phase of institutional Bitcoin adoption
• Trump announces $200 billion South Korean investment in US nuclear, LNG and gas power
• Gold options volume flat in September as price ends about 9% below August peak, CME says
• Japan…

Executives' average year-end WTI forecast of about $88 sits well below spot near $99, which suggests the industry expects some easing, but the $70 to $126 range shows how uncertain the outlook is. The diesel result is the more notable signal for oil markets: if fuel spreads stay wide for more than a year, refining margins are likely to stay strong and freight and transport costs elevated, even if crude eases. The largest share of respondents also does not expect Persian Gulf crude exports to normalise before the second quarter of 2027, which implies a risk premium could persist in crude. This is a sentiment survey of producers and service firms, so prices will still be driven by Middle East headlines, inventories and demand data.

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US oil…

The dollar's rise to about 157.87 yen suggests traders read the opinions as supportive of more hikes but not of an immediate follow-up, so expectations for an October move have been trimmed. Softer U.S. inflation data and the Cabinet Office's call for caution both argue against a rapid pace. Elevated oil prices and firm corporate price expectations in the tankan pull the other way. The BOJ's quarterly growth and inflation forecasts are the next catalyst for that debate.

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Earlier:

• Japan manufacturing PMI slips to 54.1, a six-month low, as new order growth slows
• Japanese firms expect consumer prices to rise 2.6% a year from now, down from 2.7%
• BOJ opinions show members open to faster hikes if inflation risks overshooting 2% target

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The BOJ's…

A reading about A$1.5 billion below the poll is a clear miss for a surplus that had already been narrowing, and if the import pattern holds it could weigh on the trade contribution to growth. The composition is more informative than the headline: the imports driving the miss are investment-type goods tied to data center build-outs, so the signal is about capital spending demand more than household consumption. Gold's 20% rebound shows how much monthly export swings can distort the balance, which argues for caution in reading one month as a trend. Softer job vacancies add a note of cooling labour demand, leaving the domestic data mixed.

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Earlier:

• Australia: RBA says most mortgage holders keep equity even if house prices fall another 20%
• <a href="https://investinglive.com/news/australia-manufacturing-pmi-falls-to-49-6-as-new-orders-drop-for-first-time-since-june" target="_blank"…

The relaxed read on housing removes one argument against further tightening, which fits the RBA's warning that it is prepared to raise rates again after Tuesday's hike. The more market-relevant message is the central bank's focus on offshore risks, with leveraged investors in bonds and AI equities named as amplifiers of volatility and high asset prices leaving global markets exposed to a disruptive pullback. That makes sentiment toward the AI investment boom a plausible channel through which global stress could reach Australian assets. The review is a stability assessment and not a rate decision, so it does not by itself change the policy outlook.

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Earlier:

• Australia manufacturing PMI falls to 49.6 as new orders drop for first time since…

TD Cowen: Bitcoin's institutional story is shifting from owning it to building around it

TD Cowen analyst Lance Vitanza says the institutional conversation about Bitcoin is moving beyond who owns it and toward the financial plumbing being built around it. In a sector note dated 29 September, following the BitcoinTreasuries Conference in New York on 28 September, he argues that those developments could end up mattering as much as Bitcoin adoption itself.

What TD Cowen said

The note, titled "Three Themes Shaping the Next Phase of Institutional Bitcoin Adoption," lists three takeaways: Bitcoin is evolving from an asset into a capital markets ecosystem, the conversation has shifted from adoption to implementation, and infrastructure matters more…

The reading is still well above the 50 line, so the story is slower growth rather than a downturn, but the drop to a six-month low in a sector reliant on overseas demand will keep attention on how long export strength can last. Sharp cost increases tied to energy, transport and a weak yen, with the Middle East war cited by firms, show that oil and currency moves are still feeding straight into factory prices. Persistent selling price increases are also relevant to the Bank of Japan's assessment of inflation. References to semiconductors and AI-related demand will matter for Asian chip and technology shares, while shortages of electronic components are a risk to output. This is a single survey, so traders will want confirmation from other…

This is a long-dated signal rather than an immediate shift in supply or demand, since reactors take years to build and the Alaska LNG scheme still needs binding financing, so the near-term effect on oil and gas prices is likely to be limited. It does reinforce US energy and power as a policy priority, which may support sentiment towards nuclear, LNG and power-equipment names, and towards the Asian buyers already lining up for Alaskan gas. The Texas plant's link to chip plants and data centres underlines how much power demand is being driven by technology. Energy prices remain elevated after the Iran conflict, but the package is a promise rather than a funded delivery schedule, so markets will want detail on financing, timelines and which…

The report points to a gold market under steady pressure from higher rates, a stronger dollar and elevated yields, with the removal of near-term rate cut expectations leaving fewer reasons for buyers to step in quickly. Steady options volume and easing, though still high, implied volatility suggest the sell-off has been orderly rather than disorderly, which may leave the market more sensitive to the next move in the Fed's rate path or Treasury yields. Silver's weaker price and slightly lighter activity show it is following the same rate pressure, with inflation worries the main offset. These are exchange figures and not forecasts, so the direction from here will depend on the dollar, yields and Fed commentary.

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Earlier:

• Morgan Stanley's…

The breakdown in talks and Trump's remarks keep the risk of escalation firmly on the table, which is likely to keep a geopolitical risk premium in oil prices, since crude is the market most directly exposed to headlines on the war. The continuing Qatari mediation, and Trump's comment that matters will end soon one way or the other, leave outcomes two-sided: a deal would be negative for oil, while military action would be supportive. Traders are likely to treat any word from the mediators or the White House as a trigger for sharp moves in crude, and safe-haven assets and risk sentiment may follow. The reporting rests on anonymous sources and a single outlet, so confirmation or a response from Tehran will matter.

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Washington's order for…

The survey points to steady but not accelerating business conditions, with both large manufacturers and large non-manufacturers expecting a lower reading by December than the latest one. Firms' one-year inflation expectations edged lower but remain above the Bank of Japan's 2% target, and input price pressure among large manufacturers eased only slightly, so the data give the Bank little reason to change its view that price risks are still to the upside. The mix of softer big-firm outlooks and pockets of strength among small manufacturers leaves room for different readings on how far tightening can go. The yen assumptions of around 154 per dollar are a useful reference for how weak a currency companies are budgeting for, which is relevant…