Market News

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

Silver has benefited recently from the sharp decline in oil prices as expectations of a de-escalation and an earlier end to the conflict increased. Lower energy prices eased inflation concerns and reduced expectations for more aggressive tightening, creating a supportive environment for silver.

However, those expectations faded after the UN General Assembly, where Trump reiterated that the US would make a deal with Iran after the November elections. His remarks reduced optimism over a near-term resolution and contributed to a renewed rise in oil prices.

Risk sentiment subsequently deteriorated, with silver coming under additional pressure yesterday after the <a href="https://investinglive.com/news/investinglive-americas-market-news-wrap-strong-us-services-pmi-leads-to-a-big-breakdown-in-bonds/" style="color: rgba(70, 120, 134, 1); text-decoration: underline"…

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Comments from Fed’s Hammack cross the wires:

• Price stability is responsibility of central banks
• Inflation remains elevated amid solid output demand
• Inflation risk tilted toward upside
• Supply shocks a notable challenge for Fed policy right now
• The longer inflation remains high, the harder it is to bring it back to target

Analysis: Hammack is a hawk, and these comments show why. She sees inflation risks pointing higher even as demand remains solid. Supply shocks add to the challenge: the Fed cannot directly fix a supply disruption, but it still has to keep the resulting price pressure from becoming persistent.

For traders, the message is that Hammack is focused on the risk of leaving inflation elevated for too long. These remarks support…

There are reports that ECB's Isabel Schnabel will be stepping down as a board member to take a position at the IMF.  Her 

Her current term was expected to end at December 2027. An early departure has not been confirme.

Schnabel has been one of the ECB’s clearest hawkish voices. She has argued that persistent inflation risks and the possibility of higher energy costs spreading into other prices warrant further tightening. Losing that voice could make the public debate sound less hawkish. It would not, by itself, tell us that the ECB is finished raising rates.

How many people vote at ECB meetings?

The ECB’s Governing Council has 27 members: six Executive Board members and the governors of the 21 euro area national central banks. At any given…

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• Prior month 0.6%
• The advanced August reading comes in at 1.3%

Details from Statistics Canada: 

• Retail sales:−0.7% to C$73.7 billion vs −0.8% expected. Prior +0.6%.
• Retail sales excluding autos:−0.7% vs −0.5% expected. Prior +0.5%.
• Core retail sales:−0.7% after +1.2% in June. This measure excludes both autos and gasoline.
• Sales volume:−1.1%.

Canadian retail sales fell slightly less than expected in July, but the details were weaker. According to Statistics Canada’s July retail sales report, sales declined in eight of nine subsectors. The larger drop in volume than in dollar sales suggests consumers bought fewer goods, rather than the decline simply reflecting lower prices.

July components compared with June:

• General merchandise retailers: −1.9%…

• Prior was 196K (revised to 198K)
• Continuing claims 1719K vs 1745K expected
• Prior was 1730K (revised to 1717K)

US initial jobless claims came in at 197K, below the 201K expected by economists, pointing to continued resilience in the US labor market. The previous week's reading was revised higher to 198K from 196K, nevertheless, claims remain at historically low levels, indicating that layoffs remain contained.

The picture was even stronger in continuing claims, which fell to 1.719 million, well below the 1.745 million expected. The previous reading was revised to 1.717 million from 1.730 million. Taken together, the data suggest that the US labor market remains healthy and the Fed can continue to focus solely on inflation.

For background,…

Headlines:

• Brent crude above $100 and 10-year Treasury yields above 5% give markets a double test
• SNB leaves policy rate unchanged at 0% in September meeting, as widely expected
• USD/JPY races to three-week high above 158 as buyers eye a technical break higher
• Gold prices slide toward last week’s lows as 10-year Treasury yields blow past 5.10%
• Crude oil extends gains as expectations for an earlier end to the Iran war fade. What's next?
• How to trade Nasdaq today: Three areas worth watching while you wait for opportunity
• Fed policymaker Williams says another rate hike this year is "reasonable" as inflation is the main obstacle
• Germany business sentiment improves further in September despite price concerns - Ifo
• Bitcoin extends losses as higher oil…

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

The Nasdaq has been supported into new record highs after the Fed projected a less hawkish path for interest rates than the market had priced, effectively showing low appetite for extended tightening.

Moreover, the significant drop in oil prices on growing expectations of a de-escalation and an earlier end to the conflict supported the risk sentiment, keeping the Nasdaq bid into new highs. At the UN General Assembly, though, Trump poured some cold water on those expectations as he repeated that the US would make a deal with Iran after the November elections.

The general risk sentiment started to deteriorate as oil prices began rising again and…

Gold is coming under renewed pressure today, with prices sliding back towards the lows from last week and threatening another technical break lower.

The main culprit is once again the bond market. 10-year Treasury yields are now climbing to 5.15%, after surging roughly 15 bps yesterday following stronger US economic data. A poor Treasury auction also did not help with the situation. And that puts yields at their highest level since 2007 and is unsurprisingly making life difficult for gold.

The precious metal is one that does not pay a yield. So naturally, the higher the risk-free rate climbs, the greater the opportunity cost of holding gold. As such, more hawkish Fed expectations that the central bank could tighten policy further is only…

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

Bitcoin has been dragged lower by negative macro developments this week. The significant drop in oil prices on growing expectations of a de-escalation and an earlier end to the conflict supported the crypto market. At the UN General Assembly, though, Trump poured some cold water on those expectations as he repeated that the US would make a deal with Iran after the November elections.

The general risk sentiment started to deteriorate as oil prices began rising again and dragged cryptocurrencies lower. Eventually the bearish momentum increased yesterday after the US Flash PMIs showed a much stronger growth than expected and triggered another hawkish…

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

Crude oil extended the gains yesterday as short-covering continued after Trump poured cold water on expectations of an earlier end to the Iran war. As a reminder, oil prices have been on a sustained downtrend recently on growing expectations of a de-escalation and improvements on Saudi Arabia oil pipeline and exports side. At the UN General Assembly, though, Trump repeated that the US would make a deal with Iran after the November elections.

Traders started to reprice earlier expectations and oil prices began rising again. This morning, we’ve also got a key technical breakout on WTI oil which increased the bullish momentum and opened the door for…