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The price of crude oil has moved lower trading to $72.39. That was just below the 38.2% of the move up from the low last week at $72.49. Staying below that level would open the door to more downside momentum.

US stocks are edging higher as well. The NASDAQ index is trading at to a new high for the day at 22594.38. The S&P index is also yet you thousand dollars at 6838.07.. Those indices are still lower in the day by about -0.62%

• We’re talking about some very big trade deals.

• We’re doing very well.

• Felt strongly Iran was going to attack first.

• Based on the way the talks were going.

• If anything, I might have forced Israel’s hand.

• Iran attacking countries that had nothing to do with what’s going on.

• Iran hitting only civilian places.

• Iran no longer has air protection, detection facilities.

• There was another hit today on the new leadership.

• A lot of people in Iran asking for immunity.

• We’ll just continue to go forward.

• Worst case is that we had Iran and somebody takes over as bad as the previous person.

• We would like to see somebody in there that's better.

• We will see what happens in Iran but first we have to finish off the military.

• Someone from within might be more appropriate…

• Nasdaq stays under pressure amid lower growth and higher inflation fears on US-Iran war
• Inflation fears reemerge as markets digest higher energy prices from US-Iran conflict
• Will Iran really manage to fully block the Strait of Hormuz?
• EURUSD falls back to January lows despite ECB rate hike bets as US Dollar surges
• Eurozone February preliminary CPI +1.9% vs +1.7% y/y expected
• Italy February preliminary CPI +1.6% vs +1.1% y/y expected
• Oil prices surge higher, looks to eclipse the opening gap up from yesterday
• Dollar continues to go from strength to strength to start the week
• ECB's Villeroy: It would be a mistake to predict rate move in a hurry
• USDJPY on track to revisit the "intervention" level as Japanese yen lacks bullish drivers
• Another rough day…

The reaction in the bond market to the US-Iran conflict is something that should warrant more attention. While traders are focused on the risk side of things and safety flows, it'd be easy to miss that Treasury yields have actually gone up since the end of last week. 10-year yields are up another 5 bps today to 4.107%. That is well over 15 bps higher from where we finished up in February.

In a time when traders have to balance out seeking safety assets and pricing in higher inflation expectations, the latter looks to be taking over in a relatively strong manner. That as we see oil prices spike higher again with WTI crude oil now up over 6% to $75.65, its highest level since June last year.

And if you look at major central bank pricing, the…

On Monday evening, a commander from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps declared that the Strait of Hormuz was “closed” and warned that any vessel attempting to pass through would be attacked. As expected, on Tuesday oil, gas, and gold prices all jumped higher, while shipping traffic in the region only worsened.

Yet there’s still no sign of panic, why?

One of the main reasons is that the market does not seem to believe that Iran has either the incentive or the capacity to impose a total blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

First, closing such an important energy route would not really benefit Iran or its key partners, such as India and China. Second, from a military standpoint, Tehran likely lacks the resources necessary to maintain a total…

• Prior +1.0%
• HICP +1.6% vs +1.1% y/y expected
• Prior +1.0%

Slight delay in the release by the source. That's a sharp increase in price pressures and one that is also reflected in core prices. Of note, core annual inflation shows an increase from 1.7% in January to 2.4% in February. That as services inflation accelerated on the month from 2.5% previously to 3.6% last month.

The overall Eurozone CPI estimates here are what will matter more for markets, and they're also running hotter than expected. It's a bit untimely for the ECB amid the US-Iran conflict. That now shifts the narrative away from rate cuts and opens the door in asking the question of perhaps the central bank needing to think about rate hikes instead.

• Prior +1.7%
• Core CPI +2.4% vs +2.2% y/y expected
• Prior +2.2%

Well, this sort of reading won't do well to ease the nerves amid the US-Iran situation. Amid fears of a temporary spike in inflation pressures, market players have even started to weigh up a rate hike by the ECB before the end of this year. Traders priced that at a probability of around 25% before the inflation numbers.

And with price pressures keeping more stubborn now, the balance of the scales looks to have firmly shifted to the other side. That being markets are instead having to anticipate when the ECB will have to raise interest rates instead of reducing them next.

It will be interesting to see what policymakers make of the latest data alongside the higher energy price…

There was a bit of profit-taking at the onset yesterday but given time to digest the Middle East situation, we're starting to see oil prices surge higher again today. The jump on the day now sees prices move back up to contest the highs from the opening gap higher yesterday. WTI crude oil is now up well over 5% and is knocking on the door of the $75 level once more:

In times like these, technical levels don't work too well as headline risks and market emotions take over trading sentiment. Still, the technical levels will factor into any potential slowdown in the momentum amid profit-taking triggers and perhaps acting as psychological barriers.

The talk of the town is that if the US-Iran conflict is prolonged and the Strait of Hormuz remains…

Middle East Conflict Rocks Markets – Brent Crude up 7%

Global markets experienced elevated volatility overnight as tensions in the Middle East continued to intensify, driving sharp intraday price swings across asset classes. Despite the unstable backdrop, US equity markets proved relatively resilient by the close. The Dow Jones slipped just 0.15% to finish at 48,904, the S&P 500 edged up 0.04% to 6,881, and the Nasdaq outperformed modestly, gaining 0.36% to close at 22,748. Currency markets delivered less conventional risk-off dynamics. Rather than benefiting from safe-haven demand, the Japanese yen and Swiss franc weakened, while the US dollar did rally as expected, with the DXY up 0.96% to 98.59. Fixed income markets came under…

Middle East Conflict Rocks Markets – Brent Crude up 7%

Global markets experienced elevated volatility overnight as tensions in the Middle East continued to intensify, driving sharp intraday price swings across asset classes. Despite the unstable backdrop, US equity markets proved relatively resilient by the close. The Dow Jones slipped just 0.15% to finish at 48,904, the S&P 500 edged up 0.04% to 6,881, and the Nasdaq outperformed modestly, gaining 0.36% to close at 22,748. Currency markets delivered less conventional risk-off dynamics. Rather than benefiting from safe-haven demand, the Japanese yen and Swiss franc weakened, while the US dollar did rally as expected, with the DXY up 0.96% to 98.59. Fixed income markets came under…

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 03 March 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

The main driver was the continued escalation of Middle‑East tensions involving Iran, which pushed oil prices notably higher and reinforced a risk‑off tone in equities while boosting traditional safe‑haven assets. Japanese 10‑year yields rose slightly as the conflict stoked inflation‑risk concerns, and the dollar edged up versus a broad basket of Asian currencies, including the Korean won and Indian rupee, which saw the heaviest FX losses on the session.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

As European and U.S. trading sessions commence, traders face a risk-off environment fueled by Middle East conflicts boosting oil above…